Gallup: Both Romney And Gingrich In Statistical Tie With Obama In Head-To-Head MatchupsPRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich essentially tie President Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election preferences of registered voters nationwide. Fifty percent of registered voters would support Obama in each hypothetical matchup, while 48% would give their vote to Gingrich or Romney.
The USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted Dec. 15-18, finds a slight improvement in Gingrich's standing versus Obama, but no change in Romney's. In Gallup's previous trial heats, conducted as part of its Daily tracking Dec. 6-7, Romney was statistically tied with Obama, as he has been in all of Gallup's Romney-Obama matchups to date. In that same survey, the first to include a Gingrich-Obama matchup, Obama had a slight advantage over Gingrich.
Negative Voting a Major Factor Against ObamaIn a follow-up question to both trial heats, most registered voters who back Obama indicate that their vote decision represents a vote for Obama rather than a vote against the Republican candidate. By contrast, voters supporting the Republican in each trial heat say their choice primarily represents a vote against Obama rather than for either Gingrich or Romney.
Registered voters' rationale for their vote choice in an Obama vs. Romney matchup breaks down as 39% backing Obama because they are for him and 11% backing Obama as a vote against Romney. At the same time, 30% back Romney as a vote against Obama, while 18% back Romney because they are actively for him.
The findings are similar in the hypothetical Obama vs. Gingrich matchup; however, the percentage of registered voters saying their vote for Obama would be a vote against the Republican is slightly higher with Gingrich than with Romney as the hypothetical nominee, 15% vs. 11%.
Bottom Line
With nearly 11 months to go before next year's presidential election, and several weeks or months before it's clear who the Republican nominee will be, both of the leading Republican contenders for the nomination are nearly tied with Obama in registered voters' preferences. This is consistent with the competitive nature of Gallup's Obama-Romney matchups since August, but it is a little more positive for Gingrich than Gallup's initial Obama-Gingrich matchup in early December. With either Republican, it seems clear that, at this early stage, voters backing the Republican are more motivated by their desire to see Obama out of office than by an affirmative desire to see the Republican elected. These sentiments could change once Republicans settle on a nominee or get to know that person better as he campaigns in earnest and at the convention.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/151634/Romney-Gingrich-Tie-Obama-2012-Ballot.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Politics
