Ron Paul's Path to the Nomination

[howardroark]

From Reason Magazine: http://reason.com/archives/2011/12/30/ron-pauls-mccain-like-path-to-the-nomina

Key Excerpt:

there is an immediate precedent for winning the GOP nomination by triumphing among non-Republican and anti-war voters in early-state primaries and caucuses: It's exactly what John McCain did in 2008 (yes, even the anti-war part, hard as that is to believe).

McCain didn't win a plurality among self-identified Republicans in any early state last election cycle, but garnered enough independents and Democrats to eke out victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, knocking out most of his competitors and establishing himself as the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. (For more on this unprecedented turn of events, see the afterword in the paperback version of my book McCain: The Myth of a Maverick.)

The Republican electorate (like U.S. politics in general) has only gotten more fluid and unpredictable since then.

[...]

Though predicting elections is a mug's game, especially these days, my guess is that a Paul nomination would require something like this: Bigger-than-projected victory in Iowa slingshots him into a closer-than-projected 2nd place finish in New Hampshire (or even a win), while the rest of the field clears out into an essentially three-man race, in which the third (say, Newt Gingrich) lands enough blows on Romney to derail the electability argument, setting up a three-way slugfest to the finish. Stranger things have happened, though not many.

The article goes on and points out how even a Ron Paul loss could set-up his son Rand or any other libertarian Republican for a win in 2016 and beyond.

[240 is Back]

Honestly, nobody woudl have ever imagined that a black man with the middle name Hussein (and a first name one letter away from the worlds biggest terr'ist)
would ever be able to topple HILARY for that nomination in 2012.

That was hers.  She owned it.  Everyone knew it.  A coronation.

So yeah, stranger things have happened.

[howardroark]

I would say that a Ron Paul nomination would be faaaar stranger than a Barack Obama nomination... THAT said, Ron Paul has exceeded my wildest expectations thus far. I am shocked that he is first in ANY state, let alone a socially conservative one like Iowa.

[240 is Back]

I would say that a Ron Paul nomination would be faaaar stranger than a Barack Obama nomination... THAT said, Ron Paul has exceeded my wildest expectations thus far. I am shocked that he is first in ANY state, let alone a socially conservative one like Iowa.

maybe - but - a lot of the repub establishment shit all over mccain in 2008 too.  Then they became nuthuggers later.

all of these anchors would be ron paul supporters if he wins iowa and 2nd in NH, then shocks everyone with a win in SC and maybe even FL.

[Dos Equis]

I would say that a Ron Paul nomination would be faaaar stranger than a Barack Obama nomination... THAT said, Ron Paul has exceeded my wildest expectations thus far. I am shocked that he is first in ANY state, let alone a socially conservative one like Iowa.

Me too.