Author Topic: Obama poised to win 2012 election  (Read 3284 times)

Benny B

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Obama poised to win 2012 election
« on: February 17, 2012, 04:16:48 AM »
Obama poised to win 2012 election with 303 electoral votes: The Signal Forecast
By David Rothschild & Chris Wilson
 

With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.

How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.

We'll dip into what the model says in a moment, but first a note about models in general: there are a lot of them, from complex equations generated by nerdy academics (like the team at The Signal) to funny coincidences like the Redskins Rule, which holds that the incumbent party keeps the White House if Washington's football team wins its last home game. (This is true in 17 of the last 18 elections!) Every year, some of these models are right and some are wrong, and the difference is often just luck. As a result, models get a bad rap as being very good at predicting the past and lousy at predicting the future.

But every election gives researchers more data to work with and a better idea of what works and what doesn't. Not all models are bogus just because many of them are. Our model combines powerful scientific algorithms with both real-time and historical data sources. We have examined the last 10 presidential elections and found that the Yahoo! model, which is the work of Yahoo Labs economists Patrick Hummel and David Rothschild, would have correctly predicted the winner in 88 percent of the 500 individual state elections.

The following chart shows our predictions for each state in the general election, based on this model.



In addition to predicting winners, you'll see that the Yahoo! model predicts by how much each candidate will win each state. These estimates are, on average, under 3 percentage points off. (We exclude Washington, D.C., in the model and assume it will go for the Democratic candidate.)

The Yahoo! model assumes that the president's approval rating will stay the same between now and mid-June, that each of the 50 states will report personal income growth that is average for an election year, and that certain key indicators of state ideology will remain unchanged this year. Although the model currently predicts that Obama will win 303 electoral votes in November, please note that it predicts only probabilities of victory, and that many states are nearly toss-ups.

Because Mitt Romney has the lead in the delegate race for the Republican presidential nomination, for this table we assume that the Republican candidate's home state is Massachusetts and that the Republican candidate's home region is the East.

This may be a conservative estimate for Obama, because January's economic indicators suggest that the states are likely to experience greater-than-average income growth in the first quarter. We will update our predictions accordingly when the actual data from the current year is available.

A key finding of the model is that economic trends—whether things are getting better or worse than they were a month ago—are more meaningful than the level state of the economy. In other words, whether the unemployment rate is increasing or decreasing is more important than what the unemployment rate actually is.

Another lesson of this model is that, while campaigns and candidates matter, they don't matter all that much. Despite the varying quality and positions of the campaigns and candidates over the last 10 presidential elections, variables beyond their immediate control describe the outcome very well. A brilliant or lucky campaigner is at an advantage, but the net effect of politics and strategy, averaged over the past 40 years, is just the small variation that the Yahoo! model cannot predict.

In the following weeks, The Signal will have more posts that describe how the model was built and what its implications are. Rothschild is scheduled to give a talk on an academic paper that he and Hummel are writing on the Yahoo! model in May at the American Association for Public Opinion Research national convention.

David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo Labs. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. His dissertation is in creating aggregated forecasts from individual-level information.
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Benny B

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2012, 04:19:02 AM »
Obama's communist-inspired destruction of the financial markets continues! >:(

Dow Closes at Highest Level in Nearly 4 Years
By JONATHAN CHENG

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a nearly four-year high, boosted by signs of an accelerating U.S. economic recovery and glimmers of hope on the Greek debt crisis.

The Dow surged 123.13 points, or 1%, to 12904.08. Thursday's rise was the biggest one-day point and percentage gain in two weeks and left the blue-chip index less than 100 points from the 13000 level it last hit in May 2008. The Dow has now run higher for 34 days without a single triple-digit decline, the longest run in more than a year. All 10 sectors of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index finished with gains.

Investors were lifted by data confirming the recent improvement in the U.S. economy. The number of weekly jobless claims tumbled to its lowest level since March 2008, and manufacturing activity showed more signs of strength. On Wednesday, a reading of home-builder sentiment rose to a near five-year high, and the Commerce Department said Thursday that home construction last month increased 10% from a year earlier, topping economists' expectations.

The rally has offered encouragement, but also raised fears that the market is rising too quickly and can't sustain recent gains. Since early October, the Dow has rallied 21%; the Nasdaq Composite is up 14% this year, perched at an 11-year high.

Meanwhile, small-capitalization stocks have run up 36% since early October, pushing the Russell 2000 small-cap index to within 4% of the all-time high that it hit last April. The Russell 2000 surged 2% Thursday.

"It's such a cliché, but the risk trade is back on," said Michael Marrale, head of U.S. sales trading at RBC Capital Markets. "With Treasury rates where they are, there's no real alternative to U.S. equities."

The day's gains were led by stocks in the economically sensitive materials, financial and technology sectors. Many of this year's highest-flying stocks continued their winning ways, driving sentiment.

Microsoft soared 4.1% and for parts of the afternoon was on pace to finish at a four-year high. Apple, which has staged one of the most impressive gains this year, reversed a morning decline to finish back above the $500 level, while Bank of America tacked on another 4% to put its advance this year at 46%.

"This feels a little bit like a panic to the upside," said Maury Fertig, chief investment officer at Relative Value Partners. With confidence rising that a Greece deal is imminent, and sustained improvement in U.S. unemployment and manufacturing data, investors are racing to catch up with the rally, he said.

"To me, it just sets us up for disappointment. It reminds me of last April, when we got a whole series of good news that blew everyone away," Mr. Fertig said. Buffeted by that momentum, the Dow touched a three-year high before tumbling through the summer. This time, too, he fears, the string of strong data could begin to taper off. "People would then suddenly wonder: 'What happened?' " he said. "It makes me cautious; I wouldn't be putting new money into equities today."

Investor caution has been a hallmark of the recent rally. In the week ended Feb. 8, domestic stock mutual funds saw inflows of $1.9 billion, the biggest inflow since February 2011, according to the Investment Company Institute. Even so, the first six weeks of 2012 have seen a collective $6 billion exit long-term domestic stock mutual funds, according to the ICI.

Some argue that the rally is made stronger by the fact that sentiment doesn't appear to be overly exuberant. "I'm not sure there's enough strength for the market to run away at this point, but stock valuations can go up merely on an alleviation of worries," said Edward Crotty, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Davidson Investment Advisors in Great Falls, Mont.

Elsewhere, European stocks recovered from sharp declines to finish roughly flat after Moody's Investors Service placed the ratings of more than 100 European financial institutions and 16 European countries on review for possible downgrade. The Stoxx Europe 600 inched up 0.1%, while Germany's DAX and U.K.'s FTSE 100 indexes each fell 0.1%.

After the European markets had closed, the European Central Bank moved to protect its €50 billion ($65 billion) Greek bond portfolio from losses by swapping the bonds for new ones issued by Athens, an action that would protect Europe's central banks from any efforts to force them to take losses.

In corporate news, General Motors surged $2.24, or 9%, to $27.17, after the auto maker reported a record profit of $7.6 billion for 2011, but saw losses in Europe and thin profit margins in the fourth quarter.

Clearwire slid 11 cents, or 4.7%, to 2.25, after the company's fourth-quarter loss widened on rising interest expenses, though its subscriber base continued to expand.

NetApp tacked on 2.86, or 7.2%, to 42.74, to lead the S&P 500, after the data-storage company posted double-digit-percentage sales growth.

J.M. Smucker slid 6.55, or 8.4%, to 71.60, after the company reported weaker-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results and cut its full-year earnings outlook.

Blue Nile tumbled 4.31, or 10%, to 37.52. The online jewelry retailer reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, and indicated its results for the current quarter will fall short of expectations.

Amazon.com fell 4.54, or 2.5%, to 179.93, after analysts at Morgan Stanley trimmed the stock's rating to "equal weight" from "overweight," warning that Apple's iPhones and iPads sales could take away market share in electronic books. The stock fell even after a report from IHS showed Amazon's Kindle Fire and other low-price tablets cut into Apple's market share in the fourth quarter. Apple rose 4.54, or 0.9%, to 502.21.

Paccar rose 2.17, or 4.9%, to 46.51, after the chief executive of Swedish truck maker Scania said the European truck market has bottomed out. Europe's truck market has been weighing on Paccar because its DAF truck brand is a major player in the European market.

Molson Coors Brewing's fourth-quarter earnings climbed 58% amid stronger-than-expected sales growth; shares rose 1.24, or 2.8%, to 45.10.
—Chris Dieterich contributed to this article.

 ;)
!

Soul Crusher

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2012, 04:19:16 AM »
Lol.   Wait till gas its 5 dollars a gallon and UE spikes again.  

aesthetics

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2012, 04:35:08 AM »
the economy is about to crash in a big way very soon, worse than 2008. it's funny how politicians either get the credit or the blame for economic ailments, depending on which political association the person giving the narrative has, yet none of them seem to factor in how any of that could be possible when the economic policies of both parties are unilaterally the same.

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2012, 04:37:33 AM »
benny b is a truthfully very unintelligent person. not a personal attack or ad hominem, because those are usually hyperbolic and just out of fun. the statement "benny b is a truthfully very unintelligent person" is said with stone cold somberness and without any exaggeration, or spitefulness with intent to harm - it is just merely a completely true statement.

Borracho

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2012, 04:41:20 AM »
benny b is a truthfully very unintelligent person. not a personal attack or ad hominem, because those are usually hyperbolic and just out of fun. the statement "benny b is a truthfully very unintelligent person" is said with stone cold somberness and without any exaggeration, or spitefulness with intent to harm - it is just merely a completely true statement.

lmao

You're starting to sound like a true getbigger now  :D
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Mr Nobody

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2012, 05:38:52 AM »
GOP will win this time.

WOOO

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2012, 05:40:49 AM »
USA sucks... it's all the CIA's fault... they keep the citizens stupid and protect the rich...

I've been to 3rd world countries that were better places to live...

Soul Crusher

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2012, 05:43:02 AM »
 :)

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2012, 05:45:11 AM »
Why let the counterfeit negro benny blanco ("white" in spanish) upset you? He has no academic credibility.

gh15

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2012, 06:00:22 AM »
as i said before,, the black rule americana now day,, for quite some time,, they ruined americana and sadly you see the resultl now day ,, the whites are prety much where the blacks were back in the 80s,,it was doomed to be this way ,, when you have hostings of television tell their life story insted of actualy askin questions and be directly news oriented.....its too much to write but if anyone know psycology101 americana is prety much done culturaly,, financialy is held by the size...also owe lot of money andin the shits but still hold due to number of states and due to super power status,, resality of mater is americana is in the big BIG shits

gh15 approved
fallen angel

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2012, 06:08:14 AM »
In a 2nd term, if he doesn't have to appeal to moderates anymore (can only serve 2 terms), we may see more expansion of government into our lives and more government divisions and committees overreaching & regulating.  Hard core liberals openly call for larger government, more general rules & regulations and government will always be generally inefficient.  We'll see higher taxes (primarily on upper middle and high income earners who may leave and not open companies & risk their $), and avoidance of any real spending cuts that have a meaningful reduction on the expanding deficit.  See continued government involvement in healthcare, more redistribution of wealth, continuance of picking winners & losers in the private sector (including exemptions for their favored companies) and continued collectivism.
The one good thing is they have made good on plans to significantly reduce troops in the middle east, though that may have been done by both sides.

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2012, 06:15:05 AM »
as i said before,, the black rule americana now day,, for quite some time,, they ruined americana and sadly you see the resultl now day ,, the whites are prety much where the blacks were back in the 80s,,it was doomed to be this way ,, when you have hostings of television tell their life story insted of actualy askin questions and be directly news oriented.....its too much to write but if anyone know psycology101 americana is prety much done culturaly,, financialy is held by the size...also owe lot of money andin the shits but still hold due to number of states and due to super power status,, resality of mater is americana is in the big BIG shits

gh15 approved
You really are a horse's ass. Any names, dates, or historical data you can point to to fortify your claims? If not then shut up, dumb ass.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2012, 06:17:07 AM »
 :D

makaveli25

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #14 on: February 17, 2012, 06:22:04 AM »
Fuck Obama. Fuck you Benny.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #15 on: February 17, 2012, 06:27:18 AM »
 :D

shootfighter1

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #16 on: February 17, 2012, 06:27:22 AM »
Obama is mixed race so its more about policy and vision for the country.  Its about big government policies and the acceptance that we won't (or shouldn't) be an economic superpower.  Distancing us from the intent and protections our founding fathers set up against overbearing controlling government.  No doubt bigger gov, more people permanently reliant on government programs & more redistribution policies will lead us to look more like Europe, instead of the superpower we were or like China has become.  That is not the foundation of this country.  Fairness, respect for personal liberties and choice, freedom and opportunity to better ourselves were.
I'm a moderate that is more economically conservative, trying to be factual.  The economy is slightly better but there will be no dramatic economic recovery with 4-5% unemployment, rising dollar value, lower gas prices and elevation of the US as a world financial power with the direction this administration wants to take us.  We should have recovered from this recession faster and with far more growth than the meager increase we see now after so much deficit spending.

The only reason they haven't done more, taxed more and spent more is because they don't want to loose the moderates for the 2012 election and have been held back some by the house. Obama's administration are pretty far left.  And Obama is more hard core liberal than Bill Clinton, who moved to the center in his 2nd term and was a relatively good president.

LittleJ

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #17 on: February 17, 2012, 06:30:45 AM »
Easy win for President Obama

Soul Crusher

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #18 on: February 17, 2012, 06:34:12 AM »
Easy win for President Obama

And you think that is good for the country?

Tell me what this communist thug plans on doing in a second term?  Even he wont say. 

 

gh15

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #19 on: February 17, 2012, 07:38:55 AM »
the americana population now day act like the getbig members in general ,,

do NOTHING,,

very few here actualy fight for the truth,, small percange,, they dont care or give a fuck ..they say gh15 will do it for us,, well friends im geting bored with this place by the day and its not good for yo u

this is how the country of americana is now day ,, the white sit and say someone will come someone will come and do the job for us...


NO WHEN THERE IS FILT YOU RAISE YOUR VOICE AND RAISE IT LOUD,, IF NOT! YOU LOSE THE BEST,, in getbig history gh15 is best thing that hapened,, in americana history ...reagan is best thing that happened

you lose both in the end ,,

stand up! fight! show you giev a fuck!

dont just come to me in pms tell me to help you and you pay anything i want,, dont just come to me in pms tell me i do good job thank god bla bla,, dont just come to me in pms botehring me ,, SHOW IT HERE SHOW IT HERE!

gh15 approved
fallen angel

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #20 on: February 17, 2012, 11:48:55 AM »
the americana population now day act like the getbig members in general ,,

do NOTHING,,

very few here actualy fight for the truth,, small percange,, they dont care or give a fuck ..they say gh15 will do it for us,, well friends im geting bored with this place by the day and its not good for yo u

this is how the country of americana is now day ,, the white sit and say someone will come someone will come and do the job for us...


NO WHEN THERE IS FILT YOU RAISE YOUR VOICE AND RAISE IT LOUD,, IF NOT! YOU LOSE THE BEST,, in getbig history gh15 is best thing that hapened,, in americana history ...reagan is best thing that happened

you lose both in the end ,,

stand up! fight! show you giev a fuck!

dont just come to me in pms tell me to help you and you pay anything i want,, dont just come to me in pms tell me i do good job thank god bla bla,, dont just come to me in pms botehring me ,, SHOW IT HERE SHOW IT HERE!

gh15 approved
You're a delusional moron.

headhuntersix

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #21 on: February 17, 2012, 11:55:00 AM »
Buy guns and ammo.....
L

gh15

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Re: Obama poised to win 2012 election
« Reply #22 on: February 17, 2012, 12:41:07 PM »
You're a delusional moron.

im your god bitch ,,

INVINSIBLE god

gh15 approved
fallen angel