HUGE statistical advantage for Jeb over Obama

[240 is Back]

History shows GOP dumping Mitt = Win.   Keeping him?  Odds not so good

These stats are fascinating.  Toss in the real-life facts that the majority of Repubs don't like Mitt... Makes you wonder...



There were 21 GOP Presidential nominations where there was no sitting incumbent running for President of the United States.  In 13 of these instances, the presumptive nominee won the nomination at the convention, but only 4 became President in the November general election.  

However, of the 8 brokered conventions where someone OTHER than the presumptive candidate won the GOP nomination – 7 went on to become President.

http://rantpolitical.com/2012/08/02/our-odds-of-beating-obama-are-better-by-dumping-mitt-in-a-brokered-convention/

[240 is Back]

What should repubslicans do?  If they put up jeb, there's aan 80% chance they win.

With Romney, they're looking at a 20% chance of winning, historically.   

Seeing as the majoity of repubs don't liek him, the tax issue, his liberal history - and jeb saying he probably should have run -

Why not give obama a candidate that will whip him up and down the stage?

[Hugo Chavez]

why not Ron Paul then?  Why the hell do you want another fucking bush in the whitehouse.  You have to be joking.

[240 is Back]

why not Ron Paul then?  Why the hell do you want another fucking bush in the whitehouse.  You have to be joking.

I know that Mark Lvin, hannity, and others would never allow ron paul to win.  The party elders, etc.  They want a tool that'll play ball, and Jeb is the biggest name out there to do it.  Could be paul ryan, could be any number of people. 

but statistically (and it cannot be argued) - preseumptive GOP nominees who aren't incumbest lose most of the time.  but when the conventions gets to create their own ticket, they choose a combination that CAN win - and 80% of the time they do win.

If the repubs put up romney - statistics (and intrade, and nate 538, and others) believe it'll be obama squeaking out the win.
If repubs put up anyone else, they're gonna win this election easily but giving America what is needed and wanted.

[Hugo Chavez]

ok, but there's got to be a better freaking option than another Bush

[240 is Back]

ok, but there's got to be a better freaking option than another Bush

Oh yeah, there are 100 people we haven't heard of are better options.   These politicians are snake oil salesman.

I'm saying the most likely option - the american most likely to be handed the nomination and be able to make a win happen in 10 weeks - would certainly be jeb. 

[240 is Back]

I thought repubs would be all over these stats - Jeb wins, end of thread.

Must suck to admit they are choosing a guy with a 20% chance of winning. 

[Shockwave]

I thought repubs would be all over these stats - Jeb wins, end of thread.

Must suck to admit they are choosing a guy with a 20% chance of winning. 

Thats life dude. Sometimes you get the elevator, sometimes chick gets the shaft. Not much you can do about it.

[Soul Crusher]

NO MORE DAMN BUSHES! 

[240 is Back]

NO MORE DAMN BUSHES! 

anyone but the guy who wrote obamacare.

[Soul Crusher]

anyone but the guy who wrote obamacare.

No more dynasties! 

[240 is Back]

No more dynasties! 

if mitt is president, i can GUARANTEE one of his 5 milktoast kids will run for president one day.  Or two of them.

[240 is Back]

Dump Rominee - these people are smart.  They understand these numbers.