Obama opens up 50-45 lead in latest new national poll

[blacken700]

http://www.guy-aside-voters-favor-d-c-status-quo-20121031

[Coach is Back!]

 

[blacken700]

    




 

[Princess L]

http://www.guy-aside-voters-favor-d-c-status-quo-20121031

If you're going to try an make a point, why not bring out the big guns 

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 51% to 43% in a new poll of 1,243 likely voters in Wisconsin by Marquette Law School. The survey was taken last Thursday through Sunday.

In Marquette's previous poll, the two candidates were virtually tied, with Obama at 49% and Romney at 48%. That survey was taken Oct. 11-14.

The new poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

You can find pollster Charles Franklin's analysis of the poll here

You can find the full results here.

The latest survey is a departure from most other recent polls in terms of the size of Obama's lead. Previous independent polls this month have found results ranging from a deadlocked race to a 6-point Obama lead.

But Obama has led or been tied with Romney in every public poll in Wisconsin since late August.

Obama's level of support in Wisconsin has been fairly consistent in all the public polls this month, including the new Marquette survey, ranging between 48 and 51 percent.

Romney's level of support has varied more in the surveys, ranging from 43 to 49 percent.

The battle for Wisconsin has been close enough to bring both campaigns back to the state in the homestretch, with visits by vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan and former president Bill Clinton Wednesday; Obama and Clinton scheduled for Thursday; Romney and Vice President Joe Biden scheduled for Friday; and Obama returning on Saturday.

This state is one of nine battlegrounds where the two campaigns, the parties and outside groups overwhelmingly have focused their time, money and effort.

In 14 polls that Marquette has done since January, Obama and Romney have been roughly tied in three, and Obama has led in 11. But Obama's lead has fluctuated between a narrow and tenuous one and an occasional double-digit cushion. Obama's margin closed after Romney picked Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate, opened up again after the conventions, closed again after the first presidential debate, and has now widened a little in the new survey.

Of the likely voters surveyed in the new poll, one in 10 said they had voted early. And Obama led among those early voters, 56% to 36%.

Also in the poll, 51% approved of Obama's performance in office, and 46% disapproved.

On issues, Romney had a narrow edge on the deficit (49% said the Republican would handle that issue better and 47% said Obama).

But Obama had an edge on foreign policy (54% to 40%); health care (52% to 44%); the economy (49% to 47%); taxes (51% to 44%); and "social issues such as abortion or same-sex marriage" (56% to 38%).

Asked if they were better off than four years ago, 50% of likely voters said no, and 45% said yes. But Obama is winning the support of about one-fifth of those voters who said they weren't better off.

Voters were split over whether the economy has gotten better or worse in the past year. But 53% said they expected the economy to get better in the next year, compared with 9% who said it would get worse, and 19% who said it would stay the same.

Gov. Scott Walker also enjoyed a positive approval rating in the new poll, with 50% saying they approved of how he is handling his job and 45% saying they disapproved.

[magikusar]

http://www.guy-aside-voters-favor-d-c-status-quo-20121031

is this the soviet gay midget pool?

[MCWAY]

is this the soviet gay midget pool?

It may as well be:

Polling Now Ranges from Romney +5 to Obama +5

Mitt Romney and President Obama are now tied in the RealClearPolitics average of recent national polling, thanks in large part to the United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll released Wednesday afternoon. That poll projects an 8-point advantage in turnout for Democrats over Republicans — one point more than the advantage that exit polling indicated the Democrats enjoyed in 2008 — and, as a result, it shows Obama up 5 percentage points (50 to 45 percent).


That’s a far cry from Gallup’s most recent polling, at the other end of the spectrum, which shows Romney up 5 points (51 to 46 percent).  Gallup’s polling suggests that likely voters’ party affiliation has swung 11 points toward the GOP in relation to Gallup’s own 2008 party-affiliation polling, and 8 points toward the GOP in relation to 2008 exit polling, thereby giving Republicans a 1-point edge this time around.  So Gallup is projecting a party-affiliation split that’s 9 points to the right of the split that’s being projected by the Congressional Connection Poll.

Well, at least no one can accuse all of the pollsters of being in lockstep.




http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/polling-now-ranges-romney-5-obama-5_659974.html

Now, how much glue must you be sniffing to think the Dems are going to even come close to, let alone EXCEEDING, their turnout in 2008?

U.S. Voter Turnout Will Likely Fall Short of 2004, 2008

Fewer voters this year say they are thinking about election, will definitely vote
by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Key Gallup indicators of voter turnout, collected prior to superstorm Sandy, suggest voter turnout will fall short of what it was in 2004 and 2008. U.S. registered voters report giving less thought to the election, and are less likely to rate their chance of voting as a "10" on a 10-point scale, than in 2004 and 2008, two higher-turnout elections. However, the 2012 figures are higher than in 1996 and 2000, two lower-turnout elections.

The questions are two of the seven that factor into Gallup's likely voter model. The model assesses individual respondents' likelihood of voting by asking about current voting intentions and past voting behavior. "Election thought" and the 10-point "likelihood of voting scale" are the two questions that focus on current voting intentions and show the most variation from election to election.

As the above chart indicates, in years like 1992, 2004, and 2008 when turnout was greater, more registered voters have tended to say they are giving at least some thought to the election, and to rate their likelihood of voting as high as possible. The percentages on these questions were lower in both 1996 and 2000, when proportionately fewer Americans voted.

Thus, the current data suggest turnout could fall in between the lower levels of 1996 and 2000 and the higher levels of 2004 and 2008.

The current results are based on Gallup Daily election tracking from Oct. 15-28. Voters' thought given to the election and voting intentions often increase closer to Election Day. However, superstorm Sandy has overtaken the election campaign as the dominant news event in recent days, which could in turn affect voters' attention to the campaign and voting intentions. Gallup has suspended its election tracking due to concerns about being able to adequately represent the U.S. electorate with so many in the East affected by the storm.

Additionally, the practical impact of Sandy and the storm's aftermath on voter participation this year is unclear, particularly in areas of the East and Mid-Atlantic where the effects could linger through Election Day on Nov. 6. Many voters in that area of the country who are engaged in the election and have every intention of voting may be unable to go to the polls on Election Day. Sandy could also have an effect on early voting in those states, though early voting is far less common in the East than in other parts of the country.

Implications

U.S. voters have not been quite as engaged in the 2012 election as in the two that preceded it, even before Sandy. However, their stated voting intentions and reported thought given to the election suggest turnout would likely not revert to the lower levels of 1996 and 2000. If turnout does come in lower this year -- that is, it looks more like 1996 and 2000 and less like 1992, 2004, and 2008 -- that may be another effect of Sandy in addition to flooding and widespread power outages.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158435/voter-turnout-likely-fall-short-2004-2008.aspx