Romney was creaming Obama by 7 points in most swing states right now in 2012.
To win in November, obviously, Donald Trump will have to rack up stronger margins over his opponent than Mitt Romney did in 2012. And for Hillary Clinton to win, she can’t do significantly worse than Barack Obama did.
So what’s keeping this race tight? Both candidates, in different ways, are trailing their 2012 equivalents in key measures.
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found Mrs. Clinton leading her Republican rival by six percentage points, 43% to 37%, with two lesser candidates nabbing 12% combined.
But in a stark illustration of Mr. Trump’s challenge, the poll showed him underperforming Mr. Romney’s marks among every portion of the population, including among the groups where he will have to rack up truly historic numbers to offset declines elsewhere, particularly among non-white voters.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/09/22/trump-underperforms-romney-among-every-group-wsjnbc-news-poll/
