Things could change within the next month, but it doesn't look good for Trump right now.
1. He was a total ass-clown during the 1st debate.
2. After ridiculing Biden for "wearing the biggest mask he'd ever seen", Trump catches Covid.
His boasting that testing was more effective then mask wearing was proven wrong.
3. Before you go " but the 2016 polls" remember :
a. Hillary never got close to "over 50%" in any national poll. Biden was as high as 57%.
b. The key state polls show Biden with clear lead. It was a VERY close during the final month in 2016 key states.
4. Trump never got 50% in his win because a viable 3rd party ( Jill Stein) took 2-4% of the vote in those states.
There is no viable 3rd party candidate on the ballot this time.