Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Humble Narcissist]

ETH is extremely undervalued vs BTC and USD. I'll admit I did not expect this undervaluation to last this long. The market is irrational. But BTC maxis are complacent. They have not been tested. Saylor's STRC will attract weak hands who want guaranteed yield. Once that stops it could all derail. Saylor stress-tested by selling 32 BTC. Look how the market reacted. Imagine if he is forced to sell large volumes. The same could be said of Tom Lee's Bitmine. But he's not leveraged like Saylor. He is earning staking real yield by helping secure Ethereum. Saylor's yield is fake ponzi games.

He was suicidal.

[Mayday]

Recall i used a valuation metric and forecasted fair value of Eth at $500 per coin. Well, we will see...

I continue to nibble away at BTC monthly and now also a few alts which I view basically as unregulated VC projects, which I consider now to be at, or below fair value.

You are bullish..... I've had 450 for quite a while. But that might take another 4yrs, plebs are happy it's going down in price.

[obsidian]

More Bitcoin facilities converted to AI. AI datacenters are much more profitable than mining BTC. In 2 years the block rewards half again. This will continue. Meanwhile transaction fee revenue is miniscule.

https://www.wkbw.com/niagara-county/north-tonawanda-residents-push-back-on-plan-to-convert-bitcoin-mining-facility-into-ai-data-center

NORTH TONAWANDA, N.Y. (WKBW) — North Tonawanda residents are pushing back on a plan to convert a controversial bitcoin mining facility on Erie Avenue into an AI data center.

Dan Rotunno, plant manager of World Generation X, a subsidiary of Digi Power X, is asking the North Tonawanda Planning Commission to allow the company to redesign everything. Rotunno said the company has already removed large portions of existing containers and that the equipment they are exchanging is no longer for bitcoin and is turned into an AI infrastructure.

[obsidian]

BTC ETF Outflows yesterday: -$91.4 million

ETH ETF Inflows yesterday: $82.4 million

ETH is criminally undervalued.

[Mayday]

Where are you seeing happy posts? Many people are already declaring Ethereum dead again. I do not see happy posts about ETH's price. I think the current price is dogshit.

I have a Different perspective is all. It's part of exhaustion to have people constantly buying, never selling. Remember you said above 2k all weak hands were out (that was also all over my feed when you said it. Yet price dropped to 1500. All part of Exhaustion and now they buy at 1700 and 1500.

The problem for buyers is the big sellers are dumping harder than before. The rotation out of BTC will occur once ETH is at a price where it's worthwhile to take the risk But when BTC is a 2x and ETH is a 2.5x from highs why would you buy ETH at all?  ETH has a shitload of risk, you simply wouldn't touch it right now.

[deadz]

I have a Different perspective is all. It's part of exhaustion to have people constantly buying, never selling. Remember you said above 2k all weak hands were out (that was also all over my feed when you said it. Yet price dropped to 1500. All part of Exhaustion and now they buy at 1700 and 1500.

The problem for buyers is the big sellers are dumping harder than before. The rotation out of BTC will occur once ETH is at a price where it's worthwhile to take the risk But when BTC is a 2x and ETH is a 2.5x from highs why would you buy ETH at all?  ETH has a shitload of risk, you simply wouldn't touch it right now.

LOL

[obsidian]

I have a Different perspective is all. It's part of exhaustion to have people constantly buying, never selling. Remember you said above 2k all weak hands were out (that was also all over my feed when you said it. Yet price dropped to 1500. All part of Exhaustion and now they buy at 1700 and 1500.

The problem for buyers is the big sellers are dumping harder than before. The rotation out of BTC will occur once ETH is at a price where it's worthwhile to take the risk But when BTC is a 2x and ETH is a 2.5x from highs why would you buy ETH at all?  ETH has a shitload of risk, you simply wouldn't touch it right now.

ETH's 2025 ATH was barely a few dollars above its 2021 ATH. Ethereum had a cursed third cycle. If you measure from the 2021 ATHs, then ETH needs to 3x, while BTC only has to 1.11x. I admit ETH has been completely mogged by BTC. If you think BTC has more upside than ETH over the next few years, go for it.

The market has ignored fundamentals and priced Bitcoin emotionally, but its future is uncertain, IMO. How the security budget will hold up is unknown. Bitcoin will need to be updated to make it quantum-ready, but Bitcoin does not have a culture of updates.

BTC Average Price:
1/1/2022 - 06/10/2022: $38,721.20
1/1/2026 - 06/10/2026: $75,305.83

2022 BTC Block Reward: 6.250 BTC x $38,721.20 = $242,007.50
2026 BTC Block Reward: 3.125 BTC x $75,305.83 = $235,330.72

Now, keep in mind that energy, hardware, and infrastructure costs have gone up since 2022. The cost of food is up a lot as well.

Porter Stansberry and certain other financial commentators argue that real-world inflation is closer to 11% annually, based on historical assessments of fixed baskets of goods. This figure is much higher than official government data, which shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hovering around 3.8% to 4.2%.

Per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the average 2022 BTC Block Reward had a purchasing power of $279,971.49
2022 BTC Block Reward: 6.250 BTC x $38,721.20 = $242,007.50 x 1.156 = $279,971.49 (INFLATION-ADJUSTED)

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

But basic goods have gone up closer to 11% per year. To purchase the exact same basket of goods in 2026 that cost $242,007.50 in 2022, the value must grow to $367,384.42.

BTC miners are getting squeezed, and the blocks they are mining lose purchasing power over time. In 2028, the block reward will halve again. How many halvings before most miners capitulate and stop securing the Bitcoin network?

BITCOIN BLOCK REWARDS
3.125000 BTC (2024) 1
################################################################
1.562500 BTC (2028) 1/2
################################
0.781250 BTC (2032) 1/4
################
0.390625 BTC (2036) 1/8
########
0.195313 BTC (2040) 1/16
####
0.097656 BTC (2044) 1/32
##
0.048828 BTC (2048) 1/64
#

[Mayday]

ETH's 2025 ATH was barely a few dollars above its 2021 ATH. Ethereum had a cursed third cycle. If you measure from the 2021 ATHs, then ETH needs to 3x, while BTC only has to 1.11x. I admit ETH has been completely mogged by BTC. If you think BTC has more upside than ETH over the next few years, go for it.

The market has ignored fundamentals and priced Bitcoin emotionally, but its future is uncertain, IMO. How the security budget will hold up is unknown. Bitcoin will need to be updated to make it quantum-ready, but Bitcoin does not have a culture of updates.

BTC Average Price:
1/1/2022 - 06/10/2022: $38,721.20
1/1/2026 - 06/10/2026: $75,305.83

2022 BTC Block Reward: 6.250 BTC x $38,721.20 = $242,007.50
2026 BTC Block Reward: 3.125 BTC x $75,305.83 = $235,330.72

Now, keep in mind that energy, hardware, and infrastructure costs have gone up since 2022. The cost of food is up a lot as well.

Porter Stansberry and certain other financial commentators argue that real-world inflation is closer to 11% annually, based on historical assessments of fixed baskets of goods. This figure is much higher than official government data, which shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hovering around 3.8% to 4.2%.

Per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the average 2022 BTC Block Reward had a purchasing power of $279,971.49
2022 BTC Block Reward: 6.250 BTC x $38,721.20 = $242,007.50 x 1.156 = $279,971.49 (INFLATION-ADJUSTED)

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

But basic goods have gone up closer to 11% per year. To purchase the exact same basket of goods in 2026 that cost $242,007.50 in 2022, the value must grow to $367,384.42.

BTC miners are getting squeezed, and the blocks they are mining lose purchasing power over time. In 2028, the block reward will halve again. How many halvings before most miners capitulate and stop securing the Bitcoin network?

BITCOIN BLOCK REWARDS
3.125000 BTC (2024) 1
################################################################
1.562500 BTC (2028) 1/2
################################
0.781250 BTC (2032) 1/4
################
0.390625 BTC (2036) 1/8
########
0.195313 BTC (2040) 1/16
####
0.097656 BTC (2044) 1/32
##
0.048828 BTC (2048) 1/64
#

Oh don't worry, the shit show on BTC will happen.

I'll caveat here, my ETH bias is because I need it to happen and happen this year. If it doesn't, I'm fucked in my alts. Unfortunately I am stuck with total utter retards. Just absolute numpties. Issue is they are the ones 8 need to pump my bags, not me be lining up to dump on others along with them

So..... If we get a cleansing this cycle it flushes them away. Yes price will suck but it'll be clean. That means BTC holders who tag over 200k/coin this cycle will very greedily rotate and pump ETH which then pumps alts.

After that, I wouldn't be surprised if it's over for a decade. What I have NFI about is whether 2021 was the rotation and ending of alts or if when BTC peaks this cycle we get the final blowup of alts.

[obsidian]

I'll caveat here, my ETH bias is because I need it to happen and happen this year. If it doesn't, I'm fucked in my alts. Unfortunately I am stuck with total utter retards. Just absolute numpties. Issue is they are the ones 8 need to pump my bags, not me be lining up to dump on others along with them

I don't follow. Are you saying ETH needs to drop to $450 or you're screwed? And which eight coins are supposed to pump your bags?

I share your frustration with crypto bros and jeets. A lot of these people panic-sold their crypto, and now the entire industry looks weak compared to other asset classes that keep pushing to new all-time highs. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to lose purchasing power.

What frustrates me is that many crypto participants seem to actively cheer for lower Bitcoin and altcoin prices because they want to accumulate more cheaply. The problem is that this mindset undermines crypto's credibility as an asset class. Why would serious investors want to allocate capital to something whose own community constantly roots for lower prices?

I'm disappointed with ETH's performance as well. The chart looks terrible. Whether it's manipulation, poor market structure, or simply a lack of demand, the price action has been extremely underwhelming. In traditional markets, people often view a triple top as a bearish or even suspicious pattern. ETH has effectively produced multiple major tops over the last several years.



I'm still holding and staking my ETH, but if it reaches significantly higher valuations in the future, I will probably rotate part of my position into other assets for diversification. I still believe Ethereum has strong fundamentals, but I don't want all my eggs in one basket if large holders can exert so much influence over price action.

ETH's five-year chart is honestly pretty ugly. By comparison, TRX's chart looks much healthier. I own some TRX as well and stake it, and from a pure chart perspective, it has arguably outperformed even BTC over this period.





Looking strictly at the charts, TRX has shown a far more consistent uptrend, while ETH has spent years failing to decisively break above previous cycle highs. Whether that ultimately reflects fundamentals or just market sentiment remains to be seen, but the contrast is hard to ignore.

[obsidian]

This ETH chart is great if you're a trader who can consistently time tops and bottoms — but most people can’t.

I used to be extremely bullish on ETH. In hindsight, someone who was more skeptical might have had an easier time exiting near local tops simply because they didn’t have the same conviction and therefore weren’t as anchored to holding through every cycle.