45 HR max. Remember the Pujols April of last year? Sure ARod might not get hurt but when the yanks pitching is so bad they are always behind 3-4 runs, teams will pitch around him.
You can't pitch around him with that lineup. Giambi, Matsui and Posada are 5-6-7, and could be 3-4-5 on other teams. The dimensions at YS could be detrimental, but haven't been so far.
As far as the Yankee pitching being bad, does anybody really expect this trend to continue? Pettitte has been good, and Wang and Mussina will be back. I'm not expecting Hughes to be lights out yet, but he will be an improvement.
Bullpen could be worrisome, but we'll see. Recently, the Yankees have had poor starts but at the end of the year have been fine.