Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022) (Read 466342 times)

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2125 on:** July 10, 2009, 03:47:53 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 09, 2009, 02:57:30 AM

S&P 875 support was tested and held yesterday.(870 was low) anticipate a short cover rally off said support.

NT

yesterdays short cover rally FAILED going into the close. Market is extremely weak and trading on very lite volume. although, on a short term basis Market is OVERSOLD, so any "good news" could spark another BS rally.

guys keep in mind a breach of the 200dma (still holding) leaves a high probability of testing March lows in the coming weeks/months.

traders Market only....please be careful!

NT

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #2126 on:** July 10, 2009, 04:52:21 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 10, 2009, 03:47:53 AM

yesterdays short cover rally FAILED going into the close. Market is extremely weak and trading on very lite volume. although, on a short term basis Market is OVERSOLD, so any "good news" could spark another BS rally.

guys keep in mind a breach of the 200dma (still holding) leaves a high probability of testing March lows in the coming weeks/months.

traders Market only....please be careful!

NT

Thanks.

Neuro - do any of the people you talk to ever discuss massive money on the sidelines waiting to see what happens with taxes, health care, cap & trade etc?

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2127 on:** July 13, 2009, 06:16:05 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 10, 2009, 03:47:53 AM

yesterdays short cover rally FAILED going into the close. Market is extremely weak and trading on very lite volume. although, on a short term basis Market is OVERSOLD, so any "good news" could spark another BS rally.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2128 on:** July 13, 2009, 06:19:24 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on July 10, 2009, 04:52:21 AM

Thanks.

Neuro - do any of the people you talk to ever discuss massive money on the sidelines waiting to see what happens with taxes, health care, cap & trade etc?

yes, sideline money at record levels.

NT

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #2129 on:** July 13, 2009, 06:26:10 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 13, 2009, 06:19:24 AM

yes, sideline money at record levels.

NT

I know this from speaking to clients and even myself. Most are just hanging on and waiting to see what is going to happen and are pretty scared right now from what they see going on.

These are people who all make in the 150k to 500k a year range.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2130 on:** July 17, 2009, 03:06:04 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 09, 2009, 02:57:30 AM

S&P 875 support was tested and held yesterday.(870 was low) anticipate a short cover rally off said support.

NT

guys, as expected another nice short cover rally emerged this week. with the S&P approaching 950 (top of the range) on low volume, NOW is the time to be careful.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2131 on:** July 20, 2009, 03:35:33 AM »

guys expect S&P 950-960 area to be tested today. volume continues to remain anemic which is cause for concern.

NT

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #2132 on:** July 20, 2009, 05:27:28 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 20, 2009, 03:35:33 AM

guys expect S&P 950-960 area to be tested today. volume continues to remain anemic which is cause for concern.

NT

Thanks. Nuero - if Cap & Trade and Health care Reform fail, do you see the market reacting to that?

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2133 on:** July 20, 2009, 06:03:55 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on July 20, 2009, 05:27:28 AM

Thanks. Nuero - if Cap & Trade and Health care Reform fail, do you see the market reacting to that?

no, current market conditions revolve around the Banks. keep a close eye on GS. (WS's biggest ally)

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2134 on:** July 20, 2009, 05:32:37 PM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 20, 2009, 03:35:33 AM

guys expect S&P 950-960 area to be tested today. volume continues to remain anemic which is cause for concern.

NT

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its highest level since November, as a gauge of economic indicators topped projections and speculation grew that CIT Group Inc. will avoid bankruptcy. Treasuries rose and the dollar fell.

The S&P 500 added 1.1 percent to 951.13 above its best close since Nov. 5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 104.21 points, or 1.2 percent, to 8,848.15, erasing its loss for the year and closing at a six- month high. Treasuries rose, pushing yields down from the highest levels in almost four weeks, amid speculation Bernanke may ease inflation concerns. The dollar dropped to a six-week low against the euro.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2135 on:** July 21, 2009, 02:40:34 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 20, 2009, 03:35:33 AM

guys expect S&P 950-960 area to be tested today. volume continues to remain anemic which is cause for concern.

NT

as anticipated S&P rallied to 951 yesterday.(on anemic volume) Market is now overbought and nearing stiff resistance @ 960. a breakout above 960 would force another short cover rally, pushing S&P to 1,000. conversely, failure to breakout above 960 should lead to another ample selloff.

just my opinion.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2136 on:** July 22, 2009, 02:45:38 AM »

Market is overbought on low volume @ top of its range. highest probability from here is lower.

my opinion from above post stands.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2137 on:** July 23, 2009, 03:36:37 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 21, 2009, 02:40:34 AM

as anticipated S&P rallied to 951 yesterday.(on anemic volume) Market is now overbought and nearing stiff resistance @ 960. a breakout above 960 would force another short cover rally, pushing S&P to 1,000. conversely, failure to breakout above 960 should lead to another ample selloff.

NT

initial jobless claims (released today) should dictate whether S&P breaks out or selloffs. recent unremarkable Volume lends concern for the latter.

yesterday 960 was tested to the upside and failed (959.85 ) closing @ 954 on low Volume.

NT

GigantorX · « **Reply #2138 on:** July 23, 2009, 09:17:27 AM »

The problem I see with these "earnings" is that they are from massive lay-offs and cost cutting. Not a bad thing mind you, but it doesn't seem like the profits are from increased demand and production/expansion.

Bindare_Dundat · « **Reply #2139 on:** July 23, 2009, 05:18:36 PM »

Quote from: GigantorX on July 23, 2009, 09:17:27 AM

The problem I see with these "earnings" is that they are from massive lay-offs and cost cutting. Not a bad thing mind you, but it doesn't seem like the profits are from increased demand and production/expansion.

I agree. Plus you still have massive manipulations going on. Ratings agencies are bumping up the ratings on certain institutions this week that were downgraded last week just so they can be eligible for programs like TALF. What does that say? It's getting pretty tiring watching the market react to cheerleading instead of anything substantial. People are getting a boner because some companies are beating low expectations, yay.

Bindare_Dundat · « **Reply #2140 on:** July 23, 2009, 05:49:48 PM »

No, nothing to see here.

HOLY !@#!! Treasury Auction Schedule

Let's see if I can count this up....

70 day CMBs, $30 billion (tomorrow)
13 week Bills, $32 billion (July 27th)
26 week Bills, $31 billion (July 27th)
52 week Bills, $27 billion (July 28th)
2 year Notes, $42 billion (July 28th)
5 year Notes, $39 billion (July 29th)
7 year Notes, $28 billion (July 30th)
19 year, 6 month TIPS (reopened), $6 billion (July 27th)

That's two hundred thirty-five billion dollars over the next week!

Almost one quarter of a trillion....... geejus.

At this run rate we would be trying to sell twelve trillion dollars over one year's time, an obviously ridiculous and impossible-to-peddle amount of debt at any price.

Bindare_Dundat · « **Reply #2141 on:** July 23, 2009, 06:19:39 PM »

We're in the eye of the hurricane.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2142 on:** July 24, 2009, 03:32:55 AM »

Quote from: Bindare_Dundat on July 23, 2009, 05:18:36 PM

I agree. Plus you still have massive manipulations going on. Ratings agencies are bumping up the ratings on certain institutions this week that were downgraded last week just so they can be eligible for programs like TALF. What does that say? It's getting pretty tiring watching the market react to cheerleading instead of anything substantial. People are getting a boner because some companies are beating low expectations, yay.

as long as the Banks are controlled by the Feds/PPT, Market fundamentals and Market movement are completely irrelevant. in this type environment Technicals are your only compass.

furthermore, institutional traders are less interested in selling shares or shorting the Market as long as the Banks continue to be propped/manipulated.

why such manipulation you ask ? short answer: wealth effect. consumers drive 70% of our economy...... if the consumer "feels good" about the Stock Market/401k they tend to spend more, thereby increasing GDP with the hope of ending our prolonged recession. is the system "fixed" ? Yes.

just my opinion.

NT

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #2143 on:** July 24, 2009, 04:59:28 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 24, 2009, 03:32:55 AM

as long as the Banks are controlled by the Feds/PPT, Market fundamentals and Market movement are completely irrelevant. in this type environment Technicals are your only compass.

furthermore, institutional traders are less interested in selling shares or shorting the Market as long as the Banks continue to be propped/manipulated.

why such manipulation you ask ? short answer: wealth effect. consumers drive 70% of our economy...... if the consumer "feels good" about the Stock Market/401k they tend to spend more, thereby increasing GDP with the hope of ending our prolonged recession. is the system "fixed" ? Yes.

just my opinion.

NT

Exactly.

My thoughts:

1. If the consumer is 70% of GDP and UE is racing to over 10%, how can these companies have better earning unless said earnings are really a result of cost cutting?

2. Mark to market accounting change is allowing these banks not to do the write downs on the commercial RE defaults and residential RE foreclosures.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2144 on:** July 24, 2009, 02:38:25 PM »

Quote from: 333386 on July 24, 2009, 04:59:28 AM

Exactly.

My thoughts:

1. If the consumer is 70% of GDP and UE is racing to over 10%, how can these companies have better earning unless said earnings are really a result of cost cutting?

2. Mark to market accounting change is allowing these banks not to do the write downs on the commercial RE defaults and residential RE foreclosures.

companies do not have better earnings, they have "better than expected earnings" with analysts in on the game.

mark to market allows Banks to hide toxic assets creating "higher profits"

just my opinion.

NT

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #2145 on:** July 24, 2009, 02:40:05 PM »

Thantks Neuro.

I am triyng to explain this to some of these fools arguing that the stimulus bill is what is making the economy better. Ha ha.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2146 on:** July 28, 2009, 10:52:34 AM »

guys, S&P's high yesterday was 982 on anemic volume. market is currently overbought and institutional resistance is 1,000. highest probability from here is LOWER.

just my opinion.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2147 on:** July 28, 2009, 10:55:36 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 21, 2009, 02:40:34 AM

as anticipated S&P rallied to 951 yesterday.(on anemic volume) Market is now overbought and nearing stiff resistance @ 960. a breakout above 960 would force another short cover rally, pushing S&P to 1,000. conversely, failure to breakout above 960 should lead to another ample selloff.

just my opinion.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #2148 on:** July 28, 2009, 11:15:13 AM »

guys, the recent breakout above 960 was created by GS and is built on quicksand.(no volume) volume MUST match price for a rally to sustain itself.

just my opinion.

NT

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #2149 on:** July 28, 2009, 11:19:31 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on July 28, 2009, 11:15:13 AM

guys, the recent breakout above 960 was created by GS and is built on quicksand.(no volume) volume MUST match price for a rally to sustain itself.

just my opinion.

NT

Neuro:

You meant he economy is not on a V Shape recovery and things are rapidly improving???