Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[Neurotoxin]

gbers..........


March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending at U.S. retailers slowed in February as increasing fuel costs eroded Americans' buying power, economists said reports this week will show.


A weakening job market and rising gasoline costs are hurting consumer confidence and spending, increasing the odds the economy is already in a recession. Investors last week raised bets the Federal Reserve will keep cutting the benchmark interest rate, currently at 3 percent, as it focuses on reviving growth over taming inflation.

Sales are ``reflecting the many strains on consumers,'' said Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``We expect the Fed to cut rates to 1.5 percent by early 2009.''

Auto purchases in February were little changed from a three-year low reached in January, according to industry figures last week.




NT

[Neurotoxin]

gbers.........


3/9/08
WASHINGTON — Dangerous cracks in the nation's job market are deepening. Employers slashed jobs by the largest amount in five years and hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the labor force _ ominous signs that the country is falling toward a recession or has already toppled into one.

For the second straight month, nervous employers got rid of jobs nationwide. In February, they sliced payrolls by 63,000, even deeper than the 22,000 cut in January, the Labor Department reported Friday.


The grim snapshot of the country's employment climate underscored the heavy toll the housing and credit debacles are taking on companies, jobseekers and the economy as a whole.

"It sounds like the recession bell is ringing for the U.S. economy, although it is still faint," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

On Wall Street, stocks tumbled. The Dow Jones lost 146.70 points, a little more than 1 percent to close at 11,893.69. The Dow was down 370 for the last two days of the week




this week should be interesting gbers.




NT

[jaejonna]

Low yeild Index bonds....I just had to change up the protfolio at Fidelity...fuck stocks

[Neurotoxin]

gbers.......my warning's were clear and early.



March 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a third day to the lowest level since 2006, led by a plunge in financial shares, on speculation earnings estimates will prove to be too high as the economy slows and credit losses spread.


The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 20 points, or 1.6 percent, to 1,273.37 and is down almost 19 percent from its Oct. 9 record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 153.54, or 1.3 percent, to 11,740.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 43.15, or 2 percent, to 2,169.34. Five stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

``It's a painful time for investors,'' said Sam Rahman, the Boston-based head of U.S. equities at Baring Asset Management Inc.,

[Neurotoxin]

move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.

preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.

[Neurotoxin]

Low yeild Index bonds....I just had to change up the protfolio at Fidelity...fuck stocks

you're a little late to the party.

[Neurotoxin]

gbers.........



Record oil could push gasoline to $4 a gallon




March 10, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Retail gasoline prices haven't kept pace with the historic rally in the crude-oil futures market, but the cost of filling up the gas tank is still on the rise despite the fuel being in plentiful supply domestically.




gbers.....gasoline prices always lag behind oil prices. with that in mind, be prepared for sticker shock at the pump this coming summer.



NT

[Neurotoxin]

guys, 12,800 has been my upside target (as many of you already know). after hitting 12,756 recently, i now expect the market to test the Jan low of 11,600.

gbers......


the Dow hit my target area of 11,600 yesterday, (3/10/08) which is considered a strong level of support by the big traders on WS. with that in mind, expect a nice big rally today as all the short players begin to take profits. 


i could be wrong.........but i doubt it. 




NT

[Neurotoxin]

gbers......


the Dow hit my target area of 11,600 yesterday, (3/10/08) which is considered a strong level of support by the big traders on WS. with that in mind, expect a nice big rally today as all the short players begin to take profits.


i could be wrong.........but i doubt it.  




NT

gbers.......


March 11, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday for the first day in four, with the Dow rising 416.00 points, the most in almost seven weeks, with investors' spirits lifted by the Federal Reserve's move to loan as much as $200 billion in securities in a bid to boost liquidity in the financial system.

[War-Horse]

gbers.......


March 11, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday for the first day in four, with the Dow rising 416.00 points, the most in almost seven weeks, with investors' spirits lifted by the Federal Reserve's move to loan as much as $200 billion in securities in a bid to boost liquidity in the financial system.




gbers.......surprise, surprise. 

Who the hell is this masked man???  How can he read the markets so well?? Is this luck or skill???

[War-Horse]

Will 1979-80 oil peak then abrupt decline repeat itself?

Good question.    Nothing Booms forever right??    When will it saturate? NT

[Neurotoxin]

Will 1979-80 oil peak then abrupt decline repeat itself?

alex23, the current situation confronting oil prices is worlds away from 79-80. china's increased demand, coupled with bush's wars, is leaving too much uncertainty in the oil market at this time. i personally wouldn't be looking for oil's demise in the near term. although, at some point the pendulum will shift.

when i see it beginning to occur, i'll be happy to let you know.

right now......is not that time.




NT


 

[youandme]

am i lucky you ask ?  damn right, my wife is soooo fvcking hot !   

haha stock market info, dandy but were gonna need some proof on this 

[Straw Man]

NT - are you selling into these rallies such as we had today (alas too late for me as I got out last week - exactly the reason why I shouldn't deal with the long term stuff.  I'm much better with short term and leave the long to someone else)

[Neurotoxin]

NT - are you selling into these rallies such as we had today (alas too late for me as I got out last week - exactly the reason why I shouldn't deal with the long term stuff.  I'm much better with short term and leave the long to someone else)

Straw, now is not the time for the average investor to be buying this market. yesterday's 416.00 point rally/bounce should be viewed very cautiously.

unfortunately, this is usually where people who don't understand the market get hurt. they suddenly get sooo excited and jump in, only to get burned..... again.

ask yourself......has the recession ended ? has inflation stopped ? have oil prices suddenly dropped ? is the housing collaspe over ? have gas prices dropped ? has the economy recovered from the recession which just started ? did the dollar's downward spiral suddenly recover in a day ?

if you answer NO to the above questions, then rallies like yesterday (which i called ) should always be viewed suspiciously.

when i personally see this market has shifted to the positive (for the long term) i'll let you gbers know.

until then, my non-advice is: sit back, hold tight, and stay away from this market.

btw, although most money managers and stock brokers claim "the market cannot be timed". i've proven beyond a reasonable doubt, their incorrect. in fact, there are some individuals on WS who are compensated to do just that.....determine the market's direction, before it occurs.







NT







 

[Neurotoxin]

NT - are you selling into these rallies such as we had today (alas too late for me as I got out last week - exactly the reason why I shouldn't deal with the long term stuff.  I'm much better with short term and leave the long to someone else)

straw, keep in mind on a short term basis, the market direction will now be skewed to the upside.



NT

[Straw Man]

Straw, now is not the time for the average investor to be buying this market. yesterday's 416.00 point rally/bounce should be viewed very cautiously.

unfortunately, this is usually where people who don't understand the market get hurt. they suddenly get sooo excited and jump in, only to get burned..... again.

ask yourself......has the recession ended ? has inflation stopped ? have oil prices suddenly dropped ? is the housing collaspe over ? have gas prices dropped ? has the economy recovered from the recession which just started ? did the dollar's downward spiral suddenly recover in a day ?

if you answer NO to the above questions, then rallies like yesterday (which i called ) should always be viewed suspiciously.

when i personally see this market has shifted to the positive (for the long term) i'll let you gbers know.

until then, my non-advice is: sit back, hold tight, and stay away from this market.

btw, although most money managers and stock brokers claim "the market cannot be timed". i've proven beyond a reasonable doubt, their incorrect. in fact, there are some individuals on WS who are compensated to do just that.....determine the market's direction, before it occurs.







NT







 

NT - I asked if you were selling the rally - not buying it.

If you're really bearish wouldn't you view these rallies as an opportunity to get short (assuming that's a strategy that you like to do)

[Neurotoxin]

NT - I asked if you were selling the rally - not buying it.
 If you're really bearish wouldn't you view these rallies as an opportunity to get short (assuming that's a strategy that you like to do)

straw, in viewing the start of this thread, i'll allow you to decide what long term "personal position" i carry.


for short term professional traders, i'm confident they will be selling INTO any short term rallies.


keep in mind, earning's drive the stock market higher, and in recessionary periods, earning tend to decrease.



NT

[Straw Man]

NT - I'm not asking you for advise.  I just figured that since you were bearish you might take these rallies as an opportunity to short.    I guess you're telling me you've been short since last year.

Yesterday's rally was mostly a reaction (IMO) to the Feds announcement (unprecedented) to accept mortgage collateral in exchange for short term loans.   I guess their hope is that it will bring some confidence back to the credit markets (I'm not hopeful) but as you pointed out this doesn't change the fact that our economy is also facing other recessionary pressures (job loss, decreasing corporate earnings, etc..) as well as inflation all of which does not bode well for the stock market.   The Feds action yesterday probably just lessened (temporarily) the exacerbated effect of securities firms being forced to dump good assets at fire sale prices in order to meet margin calls.


 

[Neurotoxin]

gbers......




March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $110 a barrel to a record in New York after the dollar weakened to an all-time low against the euro, prompting investors to buy commodities.

The dollar fell  to $1.556 per euro, the lowest since the currency's 1999 debut. The declining U.S. currency has spurred investors to move funds into commodities such as oil and gold.




NT

[Neurotoxin]

NT - I'm not asking you for advise.  I just figured that since you were bearish you might take these rallies as an opportunity to short.    I guess you're telling me you've been short since last year.

Yesterday's rally was mostly a reaction (IMO) to the Feds announcement (unprecedented) to accept mortgage collateral in exchange for short term loans.   I guess their hope is that it will bring some confidence back to the credit markets (I'm not hopeful) but as you pointed out this doesn't change the fact that our economy is also facing other recessionary pressures (job loss, decreasing corporate earnings, etc..) as well as inflation all of which does not bode well for the stock market.   The Feds action yesterday probably just lessened (temporarily) the exacerbated effect of securities firms being forced to dump good assets and fire sale prices in order to meet margin calls.


 

straw, good post. i agree with all your points.  personally speaking, shorted this market near the all time highs......and held those positions. the writing was on the wall long before the stock market began to drop like a rock.......thus my warning to gbers in Nov. 07.

i don't consider myself a market bear or a bull (the market dictates that) my objective/job is to spot market trends early.....whether up or down, and capitalize on those trends both professionally....as well as personally.

IMHO, this market continues to be very toxic and should be avoided. conversely, when the time is right, many great buying opportunities will present themselves.  

my current stance on the market is unchanged from Nov. the Fed can put all the liquidity they want into this market, but with rising inflation, a tapped out consumer, the dollar crumbling, record forclosures, record gas......the extra liquidity means nothing.

dropping interest rates further will only spur on inflation......which inturn will only continue the downward spiral of the US economy.





NT

[stormshadow]

straw, good post. i agree with all your points.  personally speaking, shorted this market near the all time highs......and held those positions. the writing was on the wall long before the stock market began to drop like a rock.......thus my warning to gbers in Nov. 07.

i don't consider myself a market bear or a bull (the market dictates that) my objective/job is to spot market trends early.....whether up or down, and capitalize on those trends both professionally....as well as personally.

IMHO, this market continues to be very toxic and should be avoided. conversely, when the time is right, many great buying opportunities will present themselves. 

my current stance on the market is unchanged from Nov. the Fed can put all the liquidity they want into this market, but with rising inflation, a tapped out consumer, the dollar crumbling, record forclosures, record gas......the extra liquidity means nothing.

dropping interest rates further will only spur on inflation......which inturn will only continue the downward spiral of the US economy.


i could be wrong......but i doubt it. 



NT

Have you read Peter Schiff's Book?

I don't see how we can get out of this mess, what will the next bubble be? commodities?

[Neurotoxin]

Have you read Peter Schiff's Book?

I don't see how we can get out of this mess, what will the next bubble be? commodities?

no, in order to be completely objective in my market analysis, i cannot be influenced by perma-bears (schiff ) nor perma-bulls.

from my exerience, anyone who's mindset is fixed on a particular market bias, is typically doomed to failure in financial markets.



NT

[War-Horse]

no, in order to be completely objective in my market analysis, i cannot be influenced by perma-bears (schiff ) nor perma-bulls.

from my exerience, anyone who's mindset is fixed on a particular market bias, is typically doomed to failure in financial markets.



NT

Did someone say "Musclebear"   

[boonasty]

neurotoxin what would you invest in at this time ive seen you say cash is king but im sorry i havent read the whole thread so i dont know if youve stated your investment suggestion.

if cash is king what are you saying is a good investment as you know the dollar is at an all time low against the euro and the yen