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Author Topic: Devil Rays sweep the Sox!  (Read 1694 times)
body88
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« Reply #25 on: July 10, 2008, 01:10:22 PM »

Far better? That's a good one. I didn't know it was April 1st!

You said the same last year, how'd that turn out?
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« Reply #26 on: July 10, 2008, 01:20:45 PM »

But Boston is a far better team than the Yankees, so who cares?

They're 3 games ahead of the Yankees in the loss column. 

Many Yankees hitters have had horrilble starts in relation to their career norms, and will make up for it going forward.  Consequently many Boston hitters are notorious 1st half players (Lowell, Youklis) and will most likely regress somewhat in the second half.  Players always tend to gravitate toward their career averges - it happens all the time.  Yes, occasionally there's the anomaly season, but mostly players replicate what they normally do.  On paper, a healthy Yankee lineup is better than the sox, and will probably play out that way over the year.

 The Yankees also have a better bullpen, and closer.  Boston has better SP.

Far better is a stretch.
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« Reply #27 on: July 10, 2008, 02:25:06 PM »

They're 3 games ahead of the Yankees in the loss column. 

Many Yankees hitters have had horrilble starts in relation to their career norms, and will make up for it going forward.  Consequently many Boston hitters are notorious 1st half players (Lowell, Youklis) and will most likely regress somewhat in the second half.  Players always tend to gravitate toward their career averges - it happens all the time.  Yes, occasionally there's the anomaly season, but mostly players replicate what they normally do.  On paper, a healthy Yankee lineup is better than the sox, and will probably play out that way over the year.

 The Yankees also have a better bullpen, and closer.  Boston has better SP.

Far better is a stretch.

He knows in the back of his mind that the Yanks, minus Wang and their bats not hitting at all, are 3 games back of the Sox. Like you said, on paper the Yanks are better. Should be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.
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« Reply #28 on: July 10, 2008, 04:14:33 PM »

Players always tend to gravitate toward their career averges - it happens all the time.  Yes, occasionally there's the anomaly season, but mostly players replicate what they normally do. 
That's very true especialy in baseball, but its the career years from unexpected players and everyone staying healthy that usually is part of a championship team
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body88
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« Reply #29 on: July 10, 2008, 05:30:34 PM »

They're 3 games ahead of the Yankees in the loss column. 

Many Yankees hitters have had horrilble starts in relation to their career norms, and will make up for it going forward.  Consequently many Boston hitters are notorious 1st half players (Lowell, Youklis) and will most likely regress somewhat in the second half.  Players always tend to gravitate toward their career averges - it happens all the time.  Yes, occasionally there's the anomaly season, but mostly players replicate what they normally do.  On paper, a healthy Yankee lineup is better than the sox, and will probably play out that way over the year.

 The Yankees also have a better bullpen, and closer.  Boston has better SP.

Far better is a stretch.



On paper? I heard that one last year.... The sox are missing Ortiz, several guys where slumping and they are far from playing their best baseball right now. The same arguments where made about the sox the second half of the season last year. They can't sustain, they will drop off.... the sox played their best when it mattered. Guy's hit their best when it mattered.....the Yankees were one and done again. The sox have better starting pitching, just as good of a lineup, more speed and a better closer. Rivera is not better than Paplebon. At best it's a wash, and Mario has been known to blow some huge games these days. Maybe some of the yankes numbers are falling, because they are getting older.


I get a kick out of the on paper stuff, it means nothing.....Until they do it on the field, it's just excuse making. Yankees are ob a good club, but they don't have the juice to win the series - IMO.
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body88
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« Reply #30 on: July 10, 2008, 05:32:55 PM »

That's very true especialy in baseball, but its the career years from unexpected players and everyone staying healthy that usually is part of a championship team

And if that holds true for the Redsox, they will have a better chance to win the World series than the Yankees. The team is pretty much the same as the championship team last year. They will go out and get a bat before the trading deadline, and make the moves they need to. People don't even consider they can move Mastersen to the pen, and bring a blue chip pitcher back into the starting rotation.

Anything could happen, but if the Sox stay healthy, they have a great chance.
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body88
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« Reply #31 on: July 10, 2008, 05:35:24 PM »

He knows in the back of his mind that the Yanks, minus Wang and their bats not hitting at all, are 3 games back of the Sox. Like you said, on paper the Yanks are better. Should be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.


Nope, the sox are minus there best hitter, tek is in a legendary slump, and the pen is coming out of a rough patch.... The sox are a better team, plain and simple. Sure the Yankees are only three games back, but they don't have the sauce to win in the playoffs, so I don't even think about it.
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body88
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« Reply #32 on: July 10, 2008, 05:40:25 PM »

Finally - baseball discussion.  Grin

Lester and Clay over Hughes and Kennedy RIGHT NOW, yes, I would agree.  Actually, maybe even going forward since Kennedy isn't supposed to be as good as either Lester or Clay, but I'm still going to stick to Hughes for the long haul.  At the ML level, Hughes had a no hitter into the 7th vs. Texas until he pulled a hamstring, and pitched very well that September he came back, including a playoff game.  This year, he sucked, but it was discovered he had cracked ribs and was trying to pitch through it.  Hopefully he'll come back now with lowered expectations from everyone and be able to be a #4-5 to begin and work his way.  People forget he's only 21 years old, much younger than any of the other three pitchers mentioned.  I'll also say that I am surprised that Lester's been able to keep the walks down recently, a problem that's plagued him throughout his MLB and MiLB career.

Ellsbury #'s don't put him anywhere near the hype RSN had over him.  He did contribute in the playoffs very well last year, and will be a decent player for the sox, but not a superstar like he was hyped to be.  Right now he's slightly below a league average hitter.  People didn't want to part with him for Santana, which is ludicrous.

Pedroia has played very well, so I won't argue too much there, but I'll say it took an incredible, unsustainable hot streak to get his numbers up, and he should be the alternate 2b All Star starter to Ian Kinsler this year.  He's really good at hitting fastballs, though.  I'm surprised how he's able to get ahead of them with such a gigantic swing.


Supposed to, on paper..... it means nothing. On paper no team in History could have beaten the pats last year, you saw what happened. Lester and Buchholz have shown they have the stuff, and Lester did on the biggest stage of them al last year. I take Lester and Clay every day of the week and twice on sundays. Hughes is young, how about Lester coming back from Cancer last year? Bottom line, excuses and what ifs mean nothing. If Kennedy and Hughes start playing up to their hype, then there are no questions....until then it's a moot point.

Ellsbury has been struggling recently ( which is to expected) but anyone who knows baseball can see that this kid is electric. He is a blue chipper, he is the future, and he has already proven his worth to this team. People don't want to part with him, because he is going to be a hell of a player, he has electric speed, and can step up on the big stage when called upon.

Dustin is a great player.... I always love the "well if you take away ( remove streak ) they would be average. Thats why he's not average, he can put together amazing hot streaks. You act like Dustin has not been a great player all along. Since the day he came into the league it's been the same story with the critics vs Dustin..... He just keeps producing, hitting and playing well. All star player, all star future with the team. I see your point with the career average stuff, but if Dustin, Jocobe, Youk and lowell duplicate their performance in the playoffs, they are going to do well. All of them where key parts of the sox World series last year.

If the sox tank and the yankees dont, ill be the first to admit they are the better team, but until the do it, I can't see why they are better in any way.
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« Reply #33 on: July 10, 2008, 06:06:14 PM »


They can't sustain, they will drop off.... the sox played their best when it mattered.

They certainly did drop off.   The Yankees erased a 14.5 game deficit down to 2, and would've won the division had it not been for a blown umpire call from Seattle and Al Reyes blowing three saves against the sox down the stretch (one which Delmon Young could've easily caught).  The sox weren't clutch down the stretch, they barely survived.  In fact, in true RSN form, they started with the excuses early, saying they didn't care about the division and were "preparing for the playoffs.  As if most teams prepare for the playoffs by falling out of first place.   The sox were damn lucky the Yankees sustained so many injuries in the  beginning of the year.  This set up the sox playing a weakened Anaheim team at home, instead of Cleveland on the road.  Carmona and CC shit the bed in Fenway, unable to throw strikes, and the rest is history.



 
Quote
The sox have better starting pitching, just as good of a lineup, more speed and a better closer. Rivera is not better than Paplebon. At best it's a wash, and Mario has been known to blow some huge games these days. Maybe some of the yankes numbers are falling, because they are getting older.

Better SP now, yes.  The lineup is not as good.  It's no use aruging now, we'll just see how it plays out.   More speed?  Yankees have  Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Cabrerra/Gardner, and Arod all capable of stealing.  Does Boston have that many?

Rivera is the better reliever this year, the numbers prove it out.  I don't recall the huge games Rivera has blown this  year.  He's given up FIVE earned runs all year.  If you pull the age thing for the Yankees, you must do the same for your team.  They're not so young themselves.  Varitiek isn't slumping - he's most likely cooked.


Quote
I get a kick out of the on paper stuff, it means nothing.....Until they do it on the field, it's just excuse making. Yankees are ob a good club, but they don't have the juice to win the series - IMO.

I agree with the on paper stuff.  I use it to show that the Yankees are not as bad as perceived, and, if they get healthy, will be in the mix all year.   To say the sox are far better is just wrong.
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« Reply #34 on: July 10, 2008, 06:12:28 PM »


Supposed to, on paper..... it means nothing. On paper no team in History could have beaten the pats last year, you saw what happened. Lester and Buchholz have shown they have the stuff, and Lester did on the biggest stage of them al last year. I take Lester and Clay every day of the week and twice on sundays. Hughes is young, how about Lester coming back from Cancer last year? Bottom line, excuses and what ifs mean nothing. If Kennedy and Hughes start playing up to their hype, then there are no questions....until then it's a moot point.

Can't aruge this.  Until it happens on the field, you're right, it's moot.  My point is that Hughes is 4-5 years younger than these guys, so it's way too early to write him off or consider him "overrated by the Yankees".

Quote
Ellsbury has been struggling recently ( which is to expected) but anyone who knows baseball can see that this kid is electric. He is a blue chipper, he is the future, and he has already proven his worth to this team. People don't want to part with him, because he is going to be a hell of a player, he has electric speed, and can step up on the big stage when called upon.

Dustin is a great player.... I always love the "well if you take away ( remove streak ) they would be average. Thats why he's not average, he can put together amazing hot streaks. You act like Dustin has not been a great player all along. Since the day he came into the league it's been the same story with the critics vs Dustin..... He just keeps producing, hitting and playing well. All star player, all star future with the team. I see your point with the career average stuff, but if Dustin, Jocobe, Youk and lowell duplicate their performance in the playoffs, they are going to do well. All of them where key parts of the sox World series last year.

Ellsbury's fast, but I don't see much else.  No power whatsoever, no arm.  He is an exciting player, yes.  We'll see.

I am slightly biased against Pedroia because I think he's an asshole.  But you're right, he has produced consistently, so I'll back off an hope he's David Eckstein in two years.

Both of these players, though, benefit more than most from playing at Fenway.  Consider that Ellsubry's Home/Road splits show and OPS of .910/.653, and incredible 257 pts higher at home.  That means he's Manny at home and Varitek on the road.  Enormous difference.  Pedroia's splits aren't as bad, but still have a 100 pt disparity.   Fenway helps them both tremendously.
Quote
If the sox tank and the yankees dont, ill be the first to admit they are the better team, but until the do it, I can't see why they are better in any way.

Like I said, better bullpen, better lineup, better closer.  But we'll have to see how if it plays out like that.
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« Reply #35 on: July 10, 2008, 06:14:38 PM »

And if that holds true for the Redsox, they will have a better chance to win the World series than the Yankees. The team is pretty much the same as the championship team last year. They will go out and get a bat before the trading deadline, and make the moves they need to. People don't even consider they can move Mastersen to the pen, and bring a blue chip pitcher back into the starting rotation.

Anything could happen, but if the Sox stay healthy, they have a great chance.

I'm wondering if the sox will make a big move.  Like the Yankees recently, they seem to want to do everything from within.
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« Reply #36 on: July 11, 2008, 10:20:00 AM »

Yank's keep taking 2 steps forward 1 step back Undecided
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« Reply #37 on: July 11, 2008, 10:42:21 AM »

Yank's keep taking 2 steps forward 1 step back Undecided

Yup.  It's going to be hard not to with Ponson and Rasner getting 40% of the starts for the near future.
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« Reply #38 on: July 11, 2008, 02:42:55 PM »

Fenway doesnt favor lefties so Ellsburys numbers are interesting but I think its more comfort level of playing at home or just by chance at this point.

I'm not sure, since the disparity is so high.

I'm going to look and see if I can find any ballpark factors for L/R splits.  I agree comfort level could be a factor, but the number is just too big to be that alone.  I don't think he's nearly as good as his home numbers, nor do I think he's as awful as his road numbers.

EDIT:

Ok, I asked some people who know this stuff much better than I do, and they pointed me here:  http://seamheads.com/db/KJOK_Park_Factors1.xls

Accroding to the numbers , Fenway only favors righties for HRs, but lefties for everthing else.   So, at the very least, it's directionally correct for Ellsbury's huge disparity in Home/Road splits.
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« Reply #39 on: July 13, 2008, 12:44:07 PM »

There goes the "on paper" again.

Yanks offesnse is putrid right now.
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