Looks like Obama got an insignificant convention bounce.
Daily Presidential Tracking PollSaturday, August 30, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday is the first to include reaction to both Barack Obama’s acceptance speech and John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).
Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men (see other recent demographic observations).
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Sarah Palin made a good first impression. She was unknown nationally before being introduced as the GOP Vice-Presidential pick but is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.
Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at What They Told Us by reviewing the key polls from the week. Obama is currently enjoying his biggest lead since late July, when he opened up a six-point advantage following his summer speech in Berlin. A separate story looks at the Obama bounce. Other data released this morning shows that Democrats are happier now than before the convention with the choice of Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate. Overall, 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party.
Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 60.7% chance of winning the White House. That has changed little over the past couple of days despite the Obama speech and the Palin announcement. Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 55% (see trends). Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.
Full demographic crosstabs featuring tracking poll results by gender, age, race, ideology, party, most important issues, religious beliefs and more are available to Premium Members via the Daily Snapshot. Tomorrow is the last day to save with summer rates on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.
Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s update is based upon interviews conducted Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday night. Virtually all of the interviews were completed before Obama’s acceptance speech last night. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary). Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs for all state and national polling. Time is running out for summer rates on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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