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Author Topic: Gingrich: ‘Odds Are Better Than Even Money’ That Trump Will Get 1237 Delegates  (Read 194 times)
polychronopolous
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« on: April 13, 2016, 01:49:57 PM »



Tuesday on Fox News Channel’s “On the Record,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted Republican presidential front-runner would more likely than not get the needed 1,237 delegates required to secure the GOP’s presidential nomination before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this July.

Gingrich told host Greta Van Susteren to expect Trump to have a strong showing in New York State on Tuesday and if Cruz struggles in New York and the states holding their contests the week after, it will be difficult for him to maintain his status as the top alternative to Trump.

“Trump is a guy who moves in surges,” Gingrich said. “You just watch him. And he focuses very intently, and then he puts enormous resources. And, again, this is a guy who is worth somewhere between $4 and $10 billion. So, his ability to focus is unlike anybody I have ever seen in politics. They’ve got — I mean, Manafort still has his hands full. But they are pulling out together the, I think candidate, the families made a big difference. I think they’ve all sort of pitch in. And I think what you are seeing is that they are going to do very well in New York. They are going to do very well in Pennsylvania. When Cruz is running third, this is — I had not thought about this coming out of Wisconsin candidly because Kasich is doing a little better than people expected. Cruz is doing worse than people expected.”

“What it does is it’s very hard to argue you are the key alternative when you are in third place,” he continued. “And if the numbers we just saw are anywhere close to right, and Cruz is down at 14 percent or 15 percent, in what is still our third biggest state, it’s going to be or fourth biggest now. We’re very close to Florida. It is really going to be challenging for him. And then if he repeats that same performance in Pennsylvania, potentially repeats it in Connecticut and Rhode Island, and New Jersey, and then by then they get to Indiana and by that stage Trump will look like he is very dominant. So I think the odds are better than even money that they can find the delegates before they get to Cleveland.”
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Dos Equis
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« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2016, 02:12:37 PM »

Pretty weak analysis.  I've seen people run the actual numbers and as of now the current projections show Trump falling short of 1237.  Too many proportional states left, including California, where Cruz is currently projected to win.
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Dos Equis
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« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2016, 02:21:33 PM »

A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/
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SOMEPARTS
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2016, 01:57:15 AM »

Newt is a smart guy but he could be a bit out of touch like Rove was last time around.
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