The numbers behind Fedor's current #1 Ranking
Tiny by StrikerDave on Apr 2, 2010
4/2/10
"Opinions are like assholes, everybody has one and they all stink." There have been several postings over the last few months concerning Fedor Emelianenko's current ranking as the #1 HW in the world. Rather than debate for hours on end (like I have been) I have decided to find third party historical data in order to examine the numbers behind Fedor's current ranking. As many of you who I have debated know, I do not always agree with the rankings of the various websites. However, I beleive that using a third party resource is best to accurately gauge the current HW MMA rankings because it will not reflect my personal opinions.
I have decided to use the Consensus Rankings* posted on bloodyelbow.com for the ranking data. Prior to the Consensus Rankings, bloodyelbow.com posted MMA Meta-Rankings*. I have used the MMA Meta-Rankings for the rankings prior to posting of the Consensus Ranking. Again, I do not personally agree with all of the rankings on this website but I believe this is the best way to remove my opinion from the equation.
Star-divide
For fight outcomes, fighter records, and fight dates I used the Fighter Finder database @ sherdog.com. This is widely considered to be the largest, most accurate database of MMA fights on the internet.
It is widely considered that Fedor Emelianenko is the greatest HW mixed Martial Artist of all time. His MMA record is 31-1-0 (1 NC). The one loss was a doctor stoppage due to a cut; Fedor has never been defeated by a Submission, Decision, or been knocked out. He has won his last 27 fights in a row at HW. This is a record at HW for major MMA promotions. During this streak he has captured the Pride FC HW championship and the controversial WAMMA HW championship. Also during this streak, Fedor has defeated 6 former or future UFC HW champions, 1 Pride HW champion, 1 Strikeforce champion, 1 Pride OWGP champion, a 4-time K1 World GP champion, 3 NCAA Division 1 wrestlers, 5 K1 competitors, and at least 3 BJJ black belts. An extremely legitimate list of competitors.
Once the Pride FC and Affliction promotions folded, Fedor signed with the Strikeforce promotion. However, the UFC is widely considered to have the top HW fighters on their roster. The question then arises: Is Fedor still the #1 ranked HW in the world? Is Fedor facing tough enough competition to still deserve the #1 ranking?
Recently on this blog (MMAmania.com) several questions and statements have been made to challenge Fedor's current ranking.
Claim: Fedor hasn't fought top competition lately.
In the last two years, Fedor has had three fights and gone 3-0. At the time of the fights, his opponents had the following ranking immediately prior to the fight:
Opponent/Date: Tim Sylvia, Affliction – Banned , 7/19/2008
Opponents Ranking Prior to that fight: 5
Source: (click here)
Outcome: Win, Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), 0:36, RD1
Opponent/Date: Andra Arlovski, Affliction – Day of Reckoning , 1/24/2009
Opponents Ranking Prior to that fight: 2
Source: (click here)
Outcome: Win, KO, 3:14, RD 1
Opponent/Date: Brett Rogers, Strikeforce - Lawler vs. Sheilds 11/7/2009
Opponents Ranking Prior to that fight: 8
Source: (click here)
Outcome: Win, TKO, 1:48, RD 2
Conclusion: Mathematically speaking, Fedor has fought the highest ranked competition of all ranked HW fighters in the last 2 years and has a 3–0 record. Other noteworthy HW fighters (rankings of opponents immediately prior to fight; record in those fights) U= not ranked in the top ten immediately prior to the fight: Noguiera (10, 5, 6; 1-2), Sylvia (1, U, U;1-2), Mir (2, 5, U, 6; 2-2), Couture, HW fights only(U, 5; 0-2), Lesnar (U, 7, 3; 3-0), Barnett (U, U, U, U; 4-0), Arlovski (U, U, 1, U; 2-2)
Claim: Fedor is avoiding fighters ranked in the top 5.
In the last two years, Fedor has had 4 fights scheduled to happen; the three listed above and one that was scheduled for Aug 1, 2009 against Josh Barnett. The fight was cancelled on July 22, 2009 when Josh Barnett was denied his license to compete by the California State Athletic Commission after testing positive for anabolic steroids. This was no fault of Fedor's. On the ranking list prior to July 22, 2009 Josh Barnett was ranked #2. Source: (click here)
Conclusion: In the last two years, Fedor has in fact accepted more fights (3) against opponents ranked in the top 5 immediately prior to the fight than any other HW fighter. (Runner up: Mir w/2).
Claim: Fedor will need to fight against opponents ranked in the top 5 in order to maintain his #1 ranking.
In the last two years, there have been 5 fights between opponents that are both ranked in the top 5 at the same time (Fedor/Sylvia, Fedor/Arlovski, Noguiera/Mir, Mir/Lesnar, Velasquez/Noguiera). There have been a total of 18 unique fights that involved a fighter ranked in the top 5 that was against someone not in the top 5. A total of 23 fights involving a fighter ranked in the top 5 immediately prior to the fight. So, 22% of the fights involving a top 5 ranked fighter were against another top 5 ranked fighter. In the last two years Fedor has been scheduled to fight 75% of his fights against fighters ranked in the top 5 immediately prior to the fight.
Conclusion: Fedor is way ahead of the industry standard, however he will need to fight a fighter ranked in the top 5 (immediately prior to that fight) within his next 3 fights in order to stay above the industry standard of 22%. If he doesn't fight a top 5 fighter until his 4th fight, he will only be 2% below the industry standard (20%).
Overall conclusion:
So based on the historical, verifiable data, in the last two years Fedor has: 1) ...fought the mathematically highest ranked set of opponents compared to all other HW fighters and maintained an undefeated record (3-0). 2) ...accepted fights against the highest ranking set of HW fighters, including 3 in the top 5. Something no other fighter has done in the same time period. 3) ...fought a higher rate of top five opponents than the industry (53% higher rate) and will have 3 fights to fight another top 5 ranked fighter in order to remain above the industry standard.
