Getbig Bodybuilding, Figure and Fitness Forums
September 22, 2014, 07:43:33 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
 
   Home   Help Login Register  
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Nate Silver Predicts GOP Holding 50-51 Senate Seats After 2014 Election  (Read 2164 times)
LurkerNoMore
Getbig V
*****
Posts: 12742

Tossing sand in your Va-Jay-Jay


« Reply #75 on: August 06, 2014, 12:47:24 PM »

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/out-of-touch-gop-rapidly_b_5650490.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

The Republican Leadership may be doing just fine with the Wall Street crowd and extremists who oppose birth control, but for the majority of ordinary Americans its actions over the last several weeks have rapidly begun to seal its fate as a minority party.

First, let's start with the fact that the Republican Party is -- at this very moment -- a distinctly minority party in American politics.

The Gallup poll reports that the number of Americans identifying as Republicans has fallen to its lowest level in the quarter century it has been tracking the number: 25 percent.

Republicans lost the last presidential popular election by almost five million votes.

The FEC reports that combining the total number of votes cast by Americans for president, House and Senate in 2012, Americans voted for the GOP 158,605,000 times and for the Democrats 176,167,000 times. In other words they cast over 17 million more Democratic votes than Republican votes in 2012.

And even though Republican gerrymandering allowed the party to maintain control of the House by a slim margin, 1.17 million more votes were cast for Democratic House candidates than for Republicans.

Right now, GOP hopes for victories do not rest on their ability to appeal democratically to the majority of voters. They hinge entirely on successful gerrymandering and voter suppression policies that reduce the turnout of ordinary Americans. That means their hopes for political success in the future rest on very, very thin ice. And -- amazingly -- they seem to be doing everything they can to make the ice that separates them from complete political marginality thinner and thinner.
Report to moderator   Logged
240 is Back
Getbig V
*****
Posts: 83379


Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com


WWW
« Reply #76 on: August 06, 2014, 02:13:51 PM »

honestly, the power of the executive order is so obvious now...

Repubs can win both houses... can they really stop obama? 

in 2010, it was all "Scott brown41, we can finally stop obama!" and voila, he and john roberts found a way to get obamacare's jizz all over our collective faces. 

Obama does what he wants.  Some can complain and try to take high moral ground, but at this point, it's been 6 years of Repubs whining to their base on FOX news, and even though they cleaned his clock in 2010... they weren't really able to STOP anything.

So will the Repubs owning the Senate change anything meaningful, or stand in obama's path, in any way?
Report to moderator   Logged

LurkerNoMore
Getbig V
*****
Posts: 12742

Tossing sand in your Va-Jay-Jay


« Reply #77 on: August 06, 2014, 02:52:31 PM »

honestly, the power of the executive order is so obvious now...

Repubs can win both houses... can they really stop obama? 

in 2010, it was all "Scott brown41, we can finally stop obama!" and voila, he and john roberts found a way to get obamacare's jizz all over our collective faces. 

Obama does what he wants.  Some can complain and try to take high moral ground, but at this point, it's been 6 years of Repubs whining to their base on FOX news, and even though they cleaned his clock in 2010... they weren't really able to STOP anything.

So will the Repubs owning the Senate change anything meaningful, or stand in obama's path, in any way?

Taking the Senate isn't going to change anything.  Obama might not get anything else done, but it's only two years.   Roll Eyes   Duh!!!  The most radical pieces of his administration have already gone through.  GOP = day late, dollar short.
Report to moderator   Logged
Beach Bum
Moderator
Getbig V
*****
Gender: Male
Posts: 41409


« Reply #78 on: September 04, 2014, 01:10:40 PM »

CNN Poll: Mitch McConnell Has Narrow Lead on Democrat Grimes
Wednesday, 03 Sep 2014
By Greg Richter

Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has a 4 point lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in his re-election bid for his Kentucky Senate seat, according to a new CNN/ ORC International Poll.

The poll shows McConnell with 50 percent support to Grimes' 46 percent. The difference falls exactly within the poll's 4 point margin of error.

Kentucky is a rare instance where Democrats believe they have a chance at taking a Republican-held seat this year. It also would be symbolic for them to defeat McConnell, who is set to become majority leader if the GOP takes control of the Senate.

Vote Now: Do You Approve Or Disapprove of President Obama's Job Performance?

But the poll also showed President Barack Obama's approval rating in the state at 33 percent, attributable partly to his position against coal. Kentucky is a major coal-producing state.

That has forced Grimes to distance herself from Obama and run on a pro-coal platform.

The poll was conducted by telephone between Aug. 28 and Sept. 1, with a sampling of 11,037 adults, including 671 likely voters.

http://www.Newsmax.com/Politics/Mitch-McConnell-Grimes-Kentucky-poll/2014/09/03/id/592466/#ixzz3CNb0WuSL
Report to moderator   Logged
Beach Bum
Moderator
Getbig V
*****
Gender: Male
Posts: 41409


« Reply #79 on: September 12, 2014, 10:21:43 AM »

Fox News poll: GOP has advantage in upcoming midterm election
By Dana Blanton
Published September 11, 2014
FoxNews.com

American voters disagree with President Obama that the economy is in better shape today than in 2008. Most are unhappy with ObamaCare. And optimism about the future of the country is down. With only 54 days until Election Day, these sentiments are pretty well baked into the cake -- boosting Republican candidates in a new Fox News poll.

The poll, released Thursday, also shows that nearly as many people say their household income has gone down as say it has gone up during Obama’s presidency (36 percent gone down vs. 42 percent gone up).

CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS

By a 14 percentage-point margin, those in homes with annual income less than $50,000 are more likely to say their income has gone down. Those in higher-income households say, by a 23-point margin, their income has gone up.

More voters are optimistic (57 percent) than pessimistic (38 percent) about the future of the country. Yet that’s a sharp decline from the 40-point optimism edge in 2012 (66-26 percent).

Sentiment today looks a lot like four years ago, before the 2010 midterms, when voters were more optimistic by 27 points (61-34 percent). When Obama took office in January 2009, 77 percent felt optimistic about the country’s future and 20 percent pessimistic.

The president recently claimed that “by almost every measure” the nation’s economy and American workers are better off now than when he took office. Voters dismiss his boast as “mostly false” by a 58-36 percent margin. That includes 37 percent of Democrats who think it doesn’t ring true.

More than twice as many voters think the new health care law “went too far” (48 percent) as think it “didn’t go far enough” (21 percent). About a quarter thinks ObamaCare is “about right” (24 percent).

Men, women, those under age 45 and over age 45, voters from higher and lower income households -- all are more likely to say ObamaCare went too far.

Most voters who think the new health care law went too far plan to support the Republican candidate in their House district this fall, while most of those who think it didn’t go far enough or it’s about right plan to vote for the Democrat.

Overall, when asked who they would back if the Congressional election were today, 47 percent of likely voters say the Republican candidate in their district and 40 percent the Democrat. Recent Fox News polls of registered voters have shown a narrow Democratic advantage, although the lead bounced back and forth between the two parties for most of the spring and summer.

Almost all Republicans and Democrats plan to vote for their party’s candidate. Independents are twice as likely to say they would back the Republican over the Democrat, yet the largest number say they would vote for a third-party candidate or are still undecided.

In states with active U.S. Senate races, likely voters would back the Republican candidate in that race by a 48-39 percent margin. And when looking at the results in just the 14 Fox News battleground states, that GOP edge widens to 53-35 percent among likely voters.

Call it the ISIS effect: equal numbers of voters now say terrorism is the most important issue to their vote as say the economy: 41 percent say each will be “extremely” important in their decision. Four years ago, 57 percent said the economy would be “extremely” important, while 41 percent said terrorism (September 2010).

Today 36 percent say government spending and 35 percent say health care will be “extremely” important to their vote for Congress, followed by immigration (32 percent), foreign policy (29 percent) and abortion (23 percent).

Pollpourri

Most voters continue to think Congress stinks at its job: 78 percent disapprove of the job lawmakers are doing. Just 13 percent approve. Moreover, approval of Congress has been below 20 percent since August 2011.

Voters say Obama’s recent push to increase the minimum wage is more about trying to win votes in the midterm elections (48 percent) than about helping working people (40 percent).

Still, 52 percent favor increasing the minimum wage, while 26 percent oppose it and another 20 percent say there shouldn’t even be a minimum wage in the first place.

Eighty percent of Democrats think the federal government should increase the rate. That’s almost twice the number of independents (44 percent) and more than three times the number of Republicans who feel that way (26 percent).

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from September 7-9, 2014. The full poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. For the subgroup of 883 likely voters, the margin of sampling error is also plus or minus three points.

The Fox News battleground states in this poll were: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, South Dakota and West Virginia.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/11/fox-news-poll-gop-has-advantage-in-upcoming-midterm-election/?intcmp=latestnews
Report to moderator   Logged
Beach Bum
Moderator
Getbig V
*****
Gender: Male
Posts: 41409


« Reply #80 on: Today at 02:11:56 PM »

Nate Silver: Odds of GOP Senate Takeover Significantly Down
Tuesday, 16 Sep 2014
By Melanie Batley

The Republican Party's chances of taking control of the Senate have decreased significantly as the fortunes of Democrats in key states have surged, says Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com.

According to the former New York Times statistician, Republican odds stand at 55 percent, a drop from 64 percent just two weeks ago. 

"We've never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a 'tossup.' A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close," Silver said on an article on his website.

Silver's detailed statistical model indicates that Democrats now have a stronger possibility of winning due to changes in the Senate races in Colorado and North Carolina which are currently giving the party an advantage when previously Republicans held the edge.

Silver categorizes the two states as "highly competitive purple states," among which are also Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire. All five seats are currently held by Democrats and, with the exception of New Hampshire, it has been in these areas where Democrats have gained ground.

He cited numerous recent polls that have shown a surge for North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan and Colorado Sen. Mark Udall.

"What's perplexing is that [the Democrat surge in purple states] has happened right as Democrats' position on the generic congressional ballot — probably the best indicator of the nation mood — has deteriorated," he said.

He added that unlike the most recent figures, average historical data from the generic ballot tended to directly correlate to performance of candidates in state-by-state Senate polls.

Silver said the influence of money in those races could be one explanation, citing massive financial advantages for the Democrats in North Carolina and Colorado, along with higher outside spending by Democratic-leaning super PACs.

"Whatever the reason, the GOP's path to a Senate majority is less robust than before."

http://www.Newsmax.com/Newsfront/nate-silver-odds-republicans-senate/2014/09/16/id/594983/#ixzz3E55qmDmt
Report to moderator   Logged
240 is Back
Getbig V
*****
Posts: 83379


Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com


WWW
« Reply #81 on: Today at 04:05:03 PM »

Nate Silver: Odds of GOP Senate Takeover Significantly Down

But I thought bypassing the impeachment option would INCREASE the GOP's chances of taking over the Senate?

Oh no, Rush Limbaugh, please tell me what's going on, you said impeaching obama would help the Dems somehow...
Report to moderator   Logged

Pages: 1 2 3 [4]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Theme created by Egad Community. Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!