~By Michael David Smith,Lead Blogger
José Aldo vs. Chad Mendes
The undefeated Mendes has talked in recent weeks about how he's sure he has the right game plan for Aldo, and about how he has the best wrestling credentials of anyone Aldo has ever fought, and he's coming into this fight with a lot of confidence. And if you look at the fight from a certain point of view, you can see where that confidence comes from: Mendes has, after all, used that superior wrestling to take decisions from some pretty good opponents, and even though this will be Mendes' first five-round fight, he may have a cardio edge over Aldo.
But that's my analysis when I'm trying to look for a reason to think Mendes could win. The hard truth for Mendes is that while he's a better wrestler than anyone Aldo has ever fought before, Aldo is a much, much, much better striker than anyone Mendes has ever fought before. Aldo has become more cautious and tentative in recent fights, and so I'm not expecting to see the kind of devastating knockout that the Aldo of 2008-2009 could be counted on to provide. But I am expecting Aldo to employ leg kicks to keep Mendes at distance, perhaps some knees when Mendes shoots for takedowns, and enough punches to bloody Mendes's face. This fight should be another good opportunity for Aldo to show that he's hands down the best featherweight in MMA.
Pick: Aldo
Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson
Johnson's decision to move up to middleweight is long overdue -- while fighting at welterweight he twice came in more than five pounds over. So will he look better now that he's fighting in a division where he can actually make weight comfortably? I think he will, but I'm not sure how much of a difference that makes because I see this fight as being more about Belfort's power than Johnson's.
Belfort has had five fights since moving down to middleweight in 2008, and in four of them he knocked his opponent cold with punches. In the fifth, he got knocked cold himself by Anderson Silva's front kick. Johnson certainly has the ability to land a head kick and knock Belfort out with it, but I see Belfort catching Johnson with his hands down and knocking him out.
Pick: Belfort
This is how I predict/hope these two fights will go as well.
