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Author Topic: anyone day trade?  (Read 4582 times)
2Thick
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« Reply #75 on: November 03, 2014, 12:36:57 PM »

Mainly emotional factors, as I've said before. And the fact that no one can predict the future, and very strange things can and will happen.

Maybe you're capable of predicting the future no matter what, and you're cool as a cucumber and you'll be totally immune to any and everything that can happen, but somehow I doubt it. If you want to PM me tomorrow night's US megamillions numbers, I'll buy the ticket and split the lump sum with you.

How long have you been doing it? How have you done? Any ups and downs? Anyone who implies that it's all been gravy is being dishonest on some level IMO.

I've been in the game a long time. I didn't waste a whole lot of time doing pattern day trading because it soon became obvious to me why 95% fail.

I realized early on that swing trades and longer were the most likely ways to keep my money and grow it larger most efficiently with less risk... buy a stock with a put the day before earnings come out (or both a put and a call), make $ on the upside if the stock shoots up 5-10% or more or whatever on the upside, make $ on the downside with a put or short if it's down a similar amount, etc, then realize some or all of the profits...

Or buy shares of AAPL at $90 in 2007, hold it and see it be worth 8 times that 5 years later, while perhaps also doing some shorter term stuff around it here and there, buying more here and there, puts ahead of earnings, etc. Not play pingpong with it 10 times a day every day and go to cash at night, missing the big moves it makes after the bell and before the bell the next morning... while spending thousands a year on transaction costs and tens of thousands or more on STCG taxes. Not for me - no thanks.

But all the best to you.



Has someone made claims to never have losing trades?

You've claimed here to have been a full time day trader for a short time and that day traders lose money in bear markets. You have no explanation of why that would be the case. On most days, there's opportunities for day traders on both sides of the market. There was yesterday. There will be today. Yesterday the S&P futures moved up to a large offer at 78 and took on all the buying, buyers got caught offside and we rolled over back to the open. That open price got defended and we took a 25 point move up. The day prior, almost the exact same thing happened in reverse. Day traders had to trade the same market in the opposite direction on 2 consecutive days. This is the norm, bull or bear market.

Overall market direction just helps set bias for intraday traders but for trading outrights, the most important thing that sets the action on 9/10 days is the activity of short term speculators in that market. Watching for areas people get caught out but with an eye on prices that longer term players might be looking at.

In the prop world, there's a huge percentage trading spreads. How does spread trading intraday become more difficult in a bear market? How does stat arb become more difficult in a bear market? Market neutral intraday mean reversion strategies don't stop working because the underlying is trending in a different direction on a daily basis.
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denarii
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« Reply #76 on: November 03, 2014, 01:56:05 PM »

Please read my posts more carefully if you're going to debate me. You're bad about just picking out a few statements from a few paragraphs and taking me way out of context.

I repeat that I did day trade fulltime for a while many years ago. I now make an occasional trade with a limited amount of money when there is good reason to do so - when I'm likely to make a substantial quick profit in a short period of time during market hours because of some unusual event.

How long have you been doing the trading thing again? What kind of track record do you have again? Have you ever lost money? I don't need proof - I'll take your word for it.

I've posted up my record repeatedly - 15% over 20 years, down 25% from Q4 '07 to Q1 '09, a couple other down years here and there and a few underperforming years here and there. Over $6 mil in taxable accounts, nearly $2 mil in more conservative retirment accounts. Started with $100k in taxable accounts '95, $0 in retirement accounts at around the same time. Of course I've contributed to each a great deal over time.

 I'm all about building and protecting wealth. I ain't in it to be macho or impress anyone.

Even the legendary junk bond trader and LBO genius Michael Milken had a few losing months during his 2 decades or so he was ruling the junk bond and corporate finance world. And it turned out that he was doing many illegal and borderline illegal things to have done so amazingly well.

I've posted up this vid before. Go to 2:20. HFT fund manager says he's only ever had a few losing days in a row. He could be telling the truth, but then again he wasn't doing it back around '08. Or he could be bullshitting or even running an elaborate ponzi scheme, which is my gut feeling - I hope I'm wrong on that.


<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WstJM_aNSj8" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WstJM_aNSj8</a>



a successful order book strategy should have infrequent losing days. an unsuccessful one should lose on most trades.
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FitnessFrenzy
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« Reply #77 on: November 14, 2014, 02:37:55 PM »

thanks for that speed trading video clip, 2thick. Very interesting.
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Agnostic007
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« Reply #78 on: December 31, 2014, 01:20:15 PM »

closing out the year at 19.56% YTD in Deferred Comp. Not a bad year.
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pedro01
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Hello Hunior


« Reply #79 on: January 02, 2015, 02:28:04 AM »

a successful order book strategy should have infrequent losing days. an unsuccessful one should lose on most trades.

Agreed. A lot of people I come across tend to look for 'one size fits all' strategies they can applyall the time.

Making no adjustment for changes in liquidity/volatility can see you lose almost every trade.

I know a few people that got taken out in December which was wild, especially considering the time of year.

Then of course, you have the more localized volatility changes that occur intraday too which again, many shorter term day traders dont even consider when they start out.
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calfzilla
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« Reply #80 on: January 03, 2015, 02:53:00 AM »

Never tried it but always interested in it. Sort of a gamble tho. Speaking of gambling I lost about $100 tonight  Undecided
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denarii
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« Reply #81 on: January 21, 2015, 12:57:12 AM »

Agreed. A lot of people I come across tend to look for 'one size fits all' strategies they can applyall the time.

Making no adjustment for changes in liquidity/volatility can see you lose almost every trade.

I know a few people that got taken out in December which was wild, especially considering the time of year.

Then of course, you have the more localized volatility changes that occur intraday too which again, many shorter term day traders dont even consider when they start out.

A lot of macro guys lost in dec but jan is looking decent for those not in chf
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pedro01
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Hello Hunior


« Reply #82 on: January 21, 2015, 02:06:36 AM »

A lot of macro guys lost in dec but jan is looking decent for those not in chf

January is sucking ass for day trading index futures.

Volatility on the index futures is providing a lot more opportunity but for every dollar won.....

I'm taking it fairly easy - this sort of intraday volatility in the context of an overall sideways market is no my thing at all.

I keep telling myself to make a temporary move to treasuries but I'm a creature of habit and this, like all things, will pass...
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Agnostic007
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« Reply #83 on: January 21, 2015, 01:17:32 PM »

January is sucking ass for day trading index futures.

Volatility on the index futures is providing a lot more opportunity but for every dollar won.....

I'm taking it fairly easy - this sort of intraday volatility in the context of an overall sideways market is no my thing at all.

I keep telling myself to make a temporary move to treasuries but I'm a creature of habit and this, like all things, will pass...

Yeah the first 2 weeks in January were harsh... 
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calfzilla
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« Reply #84 on: January 21, 2015, 03:23:23 PM »

Seems to me that to do well in day trading you need to understand human behavior and sociology/anthropology more than finance.
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