Obama vs Romney

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Romney catches up to Obama in Florida, Ohio
Posted by
CNN's Gregory Wallace

(CNN) – Mitt Romney gained ground on President Barack Obama in the key states of Florida and Ohio over the last month, according to a poll of the battleground states released Thursday.

In Pennsylvania, which was also included in the Quinnipiac University battleground poll, Obama widened his six-point lead in March to an eight-point lead, 47% to 39%.

Romney and Obama were basically tied - 44% to 43% - in Florida, where Obama had a seven point advantage over Romney in the March 28 survey. In Ohio, Obama had 44% and Romney 42% in the state which went by six points for Obama in March.

Between the Quinnipiac surveys released in March and today, Romney's main rivals for the GOP nomination either exited the race or stepped down their criticism of the former Massachusetts governor, allowing him to focus his energy against Obama.

According to the poll, women tend towards Obama's candidacy in both Pennsylvania, where Obama leads Romney by 17%, and Ohio, where he leads by 13%. Romney has a 10-point advantage over Obama among men in Ohio, however in both Pennsylvania and Florida, men split nearly evenly.

The survey also indicated a majority of likely voters in each state say the US should not be involved in Afghanistan, where President Obama on Tuesday visited some of the 90,000 American troops stationed there.

Familiar names tied to the surveyed states top the poll's vice presidential inquiries. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is the pick of 40% of his home state, and Sen. Rob Portman is favored by 26% of Ohio voters. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie polled well in all three states, receiving the support of between 14% and 28% of voters.

Each of the three battleground state polls was conducted by telephone between April 25 and May 1. Each has a sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/03/poll-romney-catches-up-to-obama-in-florida-ohio/

[Soul Crusher]

Poll: Romney catches Obama in Ohio, Florida but trails in Pa.
Chicago Tribune ^ | 03 MAY 12 | Kim Geiger

Posted on Thursday, May 03, 2012 5:20:27 PM by Drew68

WASHINGTON -- It’s been more than 50 years since a candidate has won the White House without carrying at least two of the three swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, and a new poll shows Mitt Romney neck and neck with President Obama in two of them.

 Romney, who trailed Obama 49% to 42% in Florida and 47% to 41% in Ohio in late March, is now statistically tied with the president, 44% to 43% in Florida and 42% to 44% in Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll of voters in the three states.

Obama, however, has improved on his lead in Pennsylvania, where he beats Romney 47% to 39%, up from the 45%-42% lead he enjoyed in March.

Quinnipiac surveyed 3,467 voters in the three states in interviews on cellphones and land lines from April 25 through May 1. The results of the survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, led Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the university’s polling institute, to conclude that Obama is doing “slightly better” than Romney in the three states.

“What appears to be keeping Romney in the ballgame, at least in Florida and Ohio, is the perception he can better fix the economy,” Brown said.


(Excerpt) Read more at chicagotribune.com ...

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Obama ahead of Romney in Virginia
Posted by
CNN's Ashley Killough

(CNN) - As President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney campaign in Virginia this week, a new poll shows the president with a seven point advantage over his likely opponent in the Commonwealth.

Fifty-one percent of voters said they would vote for the president if the election were held today, while 44% said Romney, according to the Washington Post poll released Thursday.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

Virginia will be crucial battleground territory this fall, as Obama attempts to capture the state as he did in 2008, with 53% of the vote. He was the first Democrat to win Virginia in a presidential election since 1964.

In the last four years, however, the state has elected a Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, and the GOP picked up the state's House of Delegates and three U.S. House seats. Some of the traditionally Democratic districts in the state especially turned out for McDonnell in 2009.

A major Senate race is also underway in Virginia between two former governors–Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen. Despite the two candidates actively campaigning for months, recent polls show the race in a dead heat.

Romney has been courting votes and money in Virginia this week, making campaign stops with McDonnell and touting an endorsement from Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann in Portsmouth on Thursday.

"Now politics is underway, it's underway again. You're going to hear it all right here in Virginia," Romney said at the Portsmouth event. "This may well be the state who decides who the next president is."

Meanwhile, Obama will officially kick off his re-election campaign with rallies in Virginia and Ohio on Saturday, with the Virginia event scheduled to be at the Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond.

The Washington Post interviewed 1,101 adults in Virginia by telephone, including 964 registered voters, between April 28 and May 2. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/03/poll-obama-ahead-of-romney-in-virginia/

[Soul Crusher]

WAPO poll is wortheless as it over samples demo voters and goes on registered vs likely.   

Gallup and RAS are still the two best 

[Soul Crusher]

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/05/bg_47_questionnaire.html

Third poll today that has mittens up. 


FUBO !!!!!!!

[Soul Crusher]

Politico/GWU/Battleground

4/29 - 5/3

1000 LV

47

48

Romney +1



Rasmussen Tracking

5/4 - 5/6

1500 LV

45

47

Romney +2



Gallup Tracking

5/1 - 5/5

2200 RV

45

46

Romney +1



Democracy Corps (D)

4/28 - 5/1

1000 LV

47

47

Tie



FOX News

4/22 - 4/24 915 RV  46  46  Tie

[Soul Crusher]

Battleground Poll: Obama, Romney in dead heat (Romney 48, Obama 47)
 Politico ^ | 05/07/2012 | James Hohmann



A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a dead heat in the presidential race six months before the election.

Mitt Romney edged out President Barack Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, a number well within the margin of error, as Republicans rapidly consolidate behind the likely GOP nominee.

The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely” to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO’s February’s poll.

But there are suggestions that these numbers are extremely fluid: Obama holds double-digit leads over the presumptive Republican nominee on issues such as who will better handle foreign policy and who will stand up for the middle class and on “sharing your values.” But enduring concern about the economy — by far the most important issue to voters — keeps the president in a tenuous position despite employment numbers that show slight but steady improvement.

While approval of Congress remains in the basement at 13 percent, the poll shows that voters aren’t inclined to throw all the bums out in another major push for change.

The GOP has taken a narrow 45 percent to 43 percent lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to the poll, and 65 percent believe Republicans will continue to control the House majority after the election. Forty-one percent believe Democrats will keep the Senate majority.

Despite the buzz about who will be Romney’s vice presidential pick, nearly two-thirds of respondents said the vice presidential nominee will not affect their vote. Of the 35 percent who said it will have an impact, just 7 percent described the veep choice as extremely important to their decision.

The president’s job approval rating stands at 48 percent, down 5 points from February and a number now equal to the percentage of voters who disapprove of Obama’s performance.

The results signal that as the general election phase of the campaign gets under way, who will win the presidency is a jump ball.

A full 91 percent of Republicans support Romney, slightly exceeding the percentage of Democrats who support Obama.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, called it “a predictable tightening of the race.”

“You have both sides very consolidated,” she said. “There are no signs of fissures on either side, but you have the Democrats less enthusiastic than the Republicans.”

Americans are split evenly about Obama’s economic policies: Forty percent said he’s made the economy better; 39 percent said he’s made it worse; and 19 percent said he’s had no impact on it.

Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group said the 19 percent who don’t think Obama has affected the economy — which split 46 percent for Romney and 44 percent for Obama — will decide the election.

“Do they break to believing the economy is better? Do they break to believing the economy is not better?” he said Sunday. “Watch that. It’s key.”

Voters have mixed feelings about the direction of the economy: Forty-two percent believe its growing; 22 percent think it’s not moving; and 34 percent believe it’s either in a recession or approaching one.

That split exists despite 59 percent of respondents saying the country is headed down the wrong track. Just one-third believe the country is moving in the right direction, a troublingly low number for any incumbent.

Most respondents have already made up their minds about how to vote in the fall: Forty-three percent said with certainty they will vote to reelect Obama, and 42 percent said they will vote to replace the president. Eleven percent said they will consider voting for someone else.

A gender gap still exists, but it appears to be narrowing. Obama leads among women by 7 percentage points, while Romney has the same lead among male voters. But among women younger than 45 , Obama leads 57 percent to 39 percent. Yet Romney leads among women older than 45, 50 percent to 45 percent. The Republican also leads among white women, 57 percent to 38 percent.

The electorate continues to overwhelmingly agree the most important issues in the election are the economy (28 percent), government spending (17 percent) and jobs (14 percent). A problem for the president: A plurality of voters disapproves of Obama’s performance in these three critical areas.

But that doesn’t mean Romney has a decisive advantage. On who specifically would better handle job creation, Obama leads Romney, 48 percent to 46 percent. On who would better guide the economy as a whole, Romney leads, 48 percent to 45 percent.

Anti-Obama sentiment continues to be more intense than pro-Obama sentiment. For example, twice as many voters strongly disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy as those who strongly approve. On the budget and spending, it’s a nearly 3-to-1 ratio.

Romney, a former Bain Capital executive, has pitched himself as a turnaround specialist who can be a strong economic steward. The Obama campaign, trying to disqualify him in the eyes of voters, is working to define him as someone more concerned with creating wealth for himself and his rich friends than with creating jobs for everyday folks.

There are signs that effort is paying dividends and that many voters don’t believe Romney feels their pain. Obama has a 10-point edge, 50 percent to 40 percent, on the question of who “sharing your values.” Obama also has an advantage, 58 percent to 35 percent, on who stands up more for the middle class.

Obama’s 10-point edge on the “sharing your values” question is significant for the president because the issue has historically correlated closely to voter preference in the fall.

“For decades, the Democrats were at a disadvantage on ‘shares our values’ because it was more a moral dimension,” Lake said. “Now it seems to be more of an economic ‘in-touch-with-my-life-economically’ dimension. That allows the Democrats to be a lot more competitive on it.”

Those numbers help explain why the Romney campaign is trying to keep the election a referendum on Obama’s job performance as much as possible, focusing specifically on his stewardship of the economy. The high command in Boston realizes that the more the election is about Romney as the alternative, the harder it will be for him to win.

The unemployment rate, which dipped to 8.1 percent in April despite a tepid number of new jobs because people have stopped looking for work, plays a large role in how voters assess the nation’s economic health. When read a list of seven indicators, 46 percent identified “the number of Americans who have a job” as the best way to judge economic strength. One-sixth cited the best indicator of economic strength as their personal ability to pay bills and have some money left over. Only 5 percent named gas prices.

The president has a 13-point edge over Romney, 51 percent to 38 percent, on who is better equipped to handle foreign policy, an area that has been the GOP’s domain. The poll was in the field during intensive coverage of the one-year anniversary of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

The president has a historically unusual 6-point edge over Romney on tax policy, but he must tread cautiously. Fifty percent disapprove of his handling of the issue.

While there is general support for high tax rates for millionaires, voters harbor deep suspicions about how Obama would spend the money. Seven in 10 said they want any additional revenue to help pay down the deficit, but 61 percent think the president would use it for increased domestic spending.

A good sign for Romney is that he performed just as well against Obama as a generic, unnamed Republican candidate. Coming out of the primaries, 56 percent of all voters approve of him on a personal level.

The president continues to maintain an impressive reservoir of goodwill among voters. Seventy percent have a positive personal impression of Obama. Only 25 percent disapprove of him personally. But among the one-quarter of voters who like Obama personally but don’t like the job he’s doing, 68 percent said they will vote to replace him.

The poll asked voters whether Romney’s membership in the Mormon Church will affect their vote. While 81 percent insisted it will make no difference, 16 percent acknowledged it makes them less likely to support him. This fits with other public polls.

The POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted from April 29 to May 3 by The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners. The nationwide telephone survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. For the first time, the poll included cellphone users. They make up a quarter of the sample.

[240 is Back]

ppl already know all of the negatives about obama.

they don't know much about mitt.

the thing is, some ppl campaign and people like them more.  others - like rudy - decreased everywhere they went because they just weren't good with people.  fred thompson was like that too. 

which is mitt?  will people like him?

[Soul Crusher]

Romney polling well with independents as Obama campaign kicks off
By Bill Plante .

Play CBS News Video



(CBS News) WASHINGTON - A new Politico-George Washington University poll shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by one point, 48 to 47 percent.
 

In that poll, independent voters prefered Romney by a ten-point margin.
 

Over the weekend, meanwhile, the president formally started campaigning for another four years in office.
 

Unofficially, the president's re-election campaign has been under way for several months.
 

If you look at his speeches to large audiences in swing states, they look and sound a lot like campaign rallies.
 

But over the weekend, he made it official - and if you live in one of the key states he needs to carry, you're starting to see campaign ads like this: "We're coming back because America's greatness comes from a strong middle class. Because you don't quit, and neither does he."
 

The Obama campaign was out Monday morning with its most significant ad buy yet, in 9 states, touting the administration's accomplishments during the president's first term.
 

Full CBSNews.com coverage: Election 2012
 

It came as Mr. Obama officially launched his campaign in two key states, Ohio and Virginia.
 

"We are still fired up! We are still ready to go!" he told backers at one rally.
 

The president hit Republican rival Mitt Romney on a number of fronts.


On women, he said, "We don't need another political fight about ending a woman's right to choose, or getting rid of Planned Parenthood."
 

On Romney's view of big corporations: "I don't care how many ways you try to explain it: Corporations aren't people. People are people."


And he showed off his new campaign motto: "Forward."
 

"The question that will actually make a difference in your life and in the lives of your children," the president said, "is not just about how we're doing today. It's about how we'll be doing tomorrow."
 

The Romney campaign hit back, accusing the president of moving the goal posts for success to a second term, and arguing that Americans aren't better off now than they were four years ago.
 

Despite a brutal primary battle, polls show Romney will be competitive in the 11 battleground states where this campaign will be fought.
 

And former Romney rival Newt Gingrich said on the CBS' "Face the Nation" Sunday that Republicans are now united on the core issue of the election.
 

"The choice," Gingrich said, "is the most radical president in American history and a failed president at the economy and somebody who has a solid record on jobs and who, in fact, on basic principles, is a conservative."
 

"Conservative" is one of the tags Mr. Obama will try to pin on Romney, recycling Romney's attempts to appeal to tea party voters during the Republican primaries.
 



Meanwhile, the president may have a little work to do to boost enthusiasm among his own supporters: Even though there were 14,000 people at one of those rallies over the weekend, there were still 4,000 empty seats.

 


To see Bill Plante's report, click on the video in the player above.

[Soul Crusher]

http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-barack-obama-swing-state-polls-2012-5

240 is not going to be thrilled. 

[240 is Back]

http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-barack-obama-swing-state-polls-2012-5

240 is not going to be thrilled. 

i just went and adopted a baby seal that i can club later today once i click the link and grow angry.

[Soul Crusher]

i just went and adopted a baby seal that i can club later today once i click the link and grow angry.

240 - if obama loses - what do you think will be the main reason why?   

[240 is Back]

240 - if obama loses - what do you think will be the main reason why?   

people were unable to differentiate between his policies and those of Romney, so they went with something different for the hell of it.

[240 is Back]

240 - if obama loses - what do you think will be the main reason why?  

Romney will have outspent him in a 7-to-1 ratio.  

You know, the way he barely scraped by Santorum by outspending him like crazy.

[Soul Crusher]

Romney will have outspent him in a 7-to-1 ratio.  

You know, the way he barely scraped by Santorum by outspending him like crazy.

So it will have nothing to do with obama's record? 

[240 is Back]

So it will have nothing to do with obama's record? 

That will be the fuel romney uses for his lukewarm "vote for me because i'm not obama" campaign.

But he's yet to deliver an alternative message.  He half-ass supports that insane paul ryan plan that hands the farm to the wealthy and will sink with moderates.  He just "yep yep"s his way thru interviews, saying as little as possible to avoid controversy.

He may win this way, but it's not likely.  ROn Paul promised today to repeal EVERY SINGLE ONE of Obama's executive orders, on his first day of office.  That's some bold stuff.  Will ROmney go that route?

[Straw Man]

Romney will have outspent him in a 7-to-1 ratio.  

You know, the way he barely scraped by Santorum by outspending him like crazy.

and that's keeping in mind that Santorum is crazier than a shit house rat

[240 is Back]

and that's keeping in mind that Santorum is crazier than a shit house rat

yeah, i think most people would agree romney underperformed against a very weak GOP field.

In a primary with the top republicans (Jeb, McDonnell, mitch daniels), the sideshows like cain and trump would have never gotten any traction. 

Romney should have won this thing easily.  Getting beat by newt in SC was sad to see.  He underperformed, we can all agree there.

[Soul Crusher]

Obama Campaign Blasts Mitt Romney for Initial Silence After Supporter Says President...'Treason’
The Boston Globe ^ | Monday, May 7, 2012 | Callum Borchers
Posted on May 7, 2012 6:34:11 PM EDT by kristinn

...After Supporter Says President ‘Should be tried for treason’

The Obama campaign slammed Mitt Romney Monday for not confronting a supporter who said during a town hall event in Cleveland that the president “should be tried for treason.”

“We have a president right now that is operating outside the structure of our Constitution,” a woman said during a question-and-answer session. “And I want to know — yeah, I do agree he should be tried for treason — but I want to know what you would be able to do to restore balance between the three branches of government and what you are going to be able to do to restore our Constitution in this country.”

Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, ignored the treason comment and answered her question.

“Well, as I’m sure you do, I happen to believe the Constitution was not just brilliant but probably inspired,” he said. “I happen to believe the same thing about the Declaration of Independence. I would respect the different branches of government if I am fortunate enough to become president.”

SNIP

“Time after time in this campaign, Mitt Romney has had the opportunity to show that he has the fortitude to stand up to hateful and over-the-line rhetoric and time after time, he has failed to do so,” campaign spokeswoman Lis Smith said in a statement. “If this is the ‘leadership’ he has shown on the campaign trail, what can the American people expect of him as commander-in-chief?”

Romney repeated his position shortly after the event during an interview on CNN but rejected the notion that he had a responsibility to take on the audience member.

“I don’t correct all of the questions that get asked of me.” Romney said.

(Excerpt) Read more at bostonglobe.com ...

[MM2K]

Obama Campaign Blasts Mitt Romney for Initial Silence After Supporter Says President...'Treason’
The Boston Globe ^ | Monday, May 7, 2012 | Callum Borchers
Posted on May 7, 2012 6:34:11 PM EDT by kristinn

...After Supporter Says President ‘Should be tried for treason’

The Obama campaign slammed Mitt Romney Monday for not confronting a supporter who said during a town hall event in Cleveland that the president “should be tried for treason.”

“We have a president right now that is operating outside the structure of our Constitution,” a woman said during a question-and-answer session. “And I want to know — yeah, I do agree he should be tried for treason — but I want to know what you would be able to do to restore balance between the three branches of government and what you are going to be able to do to restore our Constitution in this country.”

Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, ignored the treason comment and answered her question.

“Well, as I’m sure you do, I happen to believe the Constitution was not just brilliant but probably inspired,” he said. “I happen to believe the same thing about the Declaration of Independence. I would respect the different branches of government if I am fortunate enough to become president.”

SNIP

“Time after time in this campaign, Mitt Romney has had the opportunity to show that he has the fortitude to stand up to hateful and over-the-line rhetoric and time after time, he has failed to do so,” campaign spokeswoman Lis Smith said in a statement. “If this is the ‘leadership’ he has shown on the campaign trail, what can the American people expect of him as commander-in-chief?”

Romney repeated his position shortly after the event during an interview on CNN but rejected the notion that he had a responsibility to take on the audience member.

“I don’t correct all of the questions that get asked of me.” Romney said.

(Excerpt) Read more at bostonglobe.com ...

Really? Is that what everybody has thier panties in a wad over? If this is all they have, we might be seeing a Mondale style landslide.

[Soul Crusher]

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Romney 49; Obama 44; Ind 3; Undec 3)
 Rasmussen ^ | 5-8-12 | Rasmussen

Posted on Tuesday, May 08, 2012 9:39:41 AM by Mikey_1962

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

The uptick for Romney comes as investor confidence has fallen six points in the wake of last week’s disappointing jobs report. Looking ahead five years, just 44% of Americans believe the nation’s economy will be stronger than it is today. That’s the lowest level of long-term optimism ever measured.

Still, it’s important to note that the presidential race has remained very close in recent weeks. Romney has had the advantage on six of the last 12 days, and Obama has held the edge six times. It remains to be seen whether today’s results represent a lasting change or are merely statistical noise. Romney’s support has remained within three points of 46% every day for more than two months. Obama’s numbers have stayed within two points of 45% every day for nearly two months.

[Soul Crusher]

Obama, the Underdog

Ebbing enthusiasm among the president’s base points to the possibility of a decisive defeat.

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 Updated: May 9, 2012 | 6:31 a.m.
May 8, 2012 | 9:30 p.m.


AP Photo/Charles Dharapak


Brave face. Obama makes the hard sell.



This presidential election is coming down to two immutable facts that have become increasingly clear as November draws closer: President Obama will be running for a second term under a stagnant economy, and his two most significant legislative accomplishments—health care reform and a job-goosing stimulus—remain deeply unpopular. It doesn’t take a professional pundit to recognize that’s a very tough ticket for reelection.

But there is a glaring disconnect between the conventional wisdom, which still maintains that Obama has a slight edge in the electoral-map math, and the fundamentals pointing to the possibility of a decisive defeat for the president.

The three most recent national polls—Democracy Corps (D), Gallup/USA Today, and the Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll—underscore how tough a reelection campaign Obama faces and why it’s fair to call him an underdog at this point. He’s stuck at 47 percent against Mitt Romney in all three surveys, with the small slice of undecided voters tilting against the president. His job approval ranges from 45 percent (Democracy Corps) to 48 percent (Battleground). Those numbers are hardly devastating, but given today’s polarized electorate, they’re not encouraging either.

Obama’s scores on the economy are worsening, even as voters still have mixed feelings on who’s to blame. In the Battleground survey, nearly as many voters now blame Obama for the state of the economy (39 percent) as those who don’t think it’s his fault (40 percent). In both the Battleground and Democracy Corps polls, 33 percent said the country is on the right track, with 59 percent saying it’s on the wrong track—numbers awfully similar to the state of play right before the 2010 Republican landslide. These are several leading indicators that suggest the trajectory could well get worse for the president as the election nears.

And the survey data suggest that Republicans in Congress, unlike their Newt Gingrich-led counterparts in 1996, aren’t shaping up to be the reviled opposition (yet) that the White House is hoping they’ll be. The Battleground survey found Republicans leading Democrats by 2 points on the generic congressional ballot, while Democracy Corps found Democrats in Congress with only a slightly higher approval score (43.1) than Republicans (41.2). If the public favors Hill Democrats, it’s by a narrow margin.

The other big red flag for the president is the waning enthusiasm of his base—college-age voters, African-Americans, and Hispanics. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that fewer than half of voters (45 percent) ages 18-34 expressed a high interest in the election, down 17 points from the same time four years ago. Democratic enthusiasm overall is down 16 points from 2008, and it now lags behind the GOP.

This is critical, because, for Obama, excitement is as important as persuasion. It’s no coincidence that Obama held his first two rallies on college campuses. Obama campaign officials have been anticipating an upward tick in the minority share of the electorate for 2012 to compensate for the expected loss of older, white voters, and they are counting on college students to organize and rally behind the president, like they did for him in 2008. Those assumptions are hardly guaranteed.

While the campaign generated loud, enthusiastic crowds in Columbus, Ohio, and Richmond, Va., it fell thousands short of packing the 18,000-seat arena at Ohio State. For most candidates, gathering thousands at any event is impressive, but for a president so dependent on that segment of his coalition, it’s a glaring shortfall. For comparison’s sake: Before the 2010 midterms, Obama drew more than 35,000 students to the Ohio State campus to rally supporters for then-Gov. Ted Strickland.

Actions speak louder than spin, and the moves of Obama’s campaign officials this past week indicate they are awfully worried about their prospects. The most recent telltale sign is that they went up with an early, expensive $25 million ad buy on Monday in nine swing states, attempting to reintroduce the president in the best possible way. This was no rinky-dink purchase; it cost nearly one-quarter of the Obama campaign’s war chest of $104 million at the beginning of April. Going up with such a significant buy so early is the equivalent of abandoning the running game in football when your team is down by a couple of touchdowns.

The ad itself is in search of a cohesive message. The first part underscores how severe the recession was, as a preemptive defense for why the economy hasn’t turned around faster. The second half argues that America is “coming back,” thanks to job growth over the past year. It’s that part that will prove to be a tough sell. Indeed, it was top Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg who advised the campaign in February that this is the type of message -- saying things are getting better when voters don’t agree -- that polls miserably “and produces disastrous results.”

But Obama’s campaign officials can’t utilize the time-tested “are you better than you were four years ago” message because it doesn’t ring true, so they have to argue things are getting a little better and the administration needs more time. It shows how limited the Obama playbook is this time around—mobilize the base, lambaste the opposition, and hope enough independents will hold their nose and vote for you. It’s hard to believe that Obama’s campaign is confident of victory, as Time’s Mark Halperin reported on Monday. More likely, campaign officials are putting on an awfully good game face in light of what promises to be a very challenging reelection.

This article appeared in the Wednesday, May 9, 2012 edition of National Journal Daily.

Want to stay ahead of the curve? Sign up for National Journal’s AM & PM Must Reads. News and analysis to ensure you don’t miss a thing.













LANDSLIDE COMING.   

[Soul Crusher]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx


LANDSLIDE COMING   

[Dos Equis]

Carville: Wake up Democrats; you could lose
By James Carville, CNN Contributor
updated 1:34 PM EDT, Wed May 9, 2012

(CNN) -- A long time ago a great three-time governor of Louisiana, Earl Long, said about Jimmie Davis, the two-time not very good governor of Louisiana, "You couldn't wake up Jimmie Davis with an earthquake."

As I go around the country and see various Democrats and talk to them on the phone, honestly I'm beginning to think that we have become the party of Jimmie Davis.

My message is simple: WTFU. Translated -- wake the you-know-what up, there is an earthquake.

You think that Democrats around the country are going to win -- as I hear time and time again from people on the street.

Democratic fundraisers, activists, supporters, and even politicians alike have somehow collectively lapsed into the sentiment that the president is going to be reelected and that we have a good shot to take the House back while holding the Senate.

I ask: What are you smoking? What are you drinking? What are you snorting or just what in the hell are you thinking?

Look around the world -- do you see any governments or incumbents winning any elections out there? Did it happen in small elections in Germany or Britain, big elections in France and Greece or how about huge elections in the United States in 2008 and 2010? Please folks -- wake up!

The polling? Not that encouraging. The latest Democracy Corps poll was 47-47. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has the president up a whopping three-tenths of a percentage point. And I am hearing the garbage that Democratic donors are telling Democratic fundraisers ..."Obama has it in the bag."

Newsflash: Nothing is in the bag. Nothing can be taken for granted. Everybody from the precinct door-knocker, to the Chicago high command, to the White House, to the halls of Congress, to the Senate and House committees, to congressional leadership, here is a simple message: If we don't get on the offense, reconnect with the American people, talk about how the middle class is in a struggle for its very existence, hold the Republicans accountable and fight like the dickens, we are going to lose.

You can shoot five Bin Ladens, you can save 10,000 banks and 20 car companies, even pass the most sweeping legislation in modern American history; if people don't think that you are connected to their lives and are fighting for their interests they will vote your tush out of office in a nano-second. For historical reference see Winston Churchill election of 1945 and President George H.W. Bush in 1992.
So, fellow Democrats -- we've got a fight on our hands. We've got to fight in the same way that the people we care most about have fought for quite some time.

They have been crushed by high health care costs, soaring education costs, stagnant wages and financial bailouts for irresponsible firms.

Combine all of this with the fact that the Republicans are raising not millions, not tens of millions, but potentially hundreds of millions of dollars from the pollution industry as result of Citizens United v. FEC.

There is a full-fledged legislative agenda in many states to keep Democrats from even voting. We are literally being attacked from every side while simultaneously being lulled into some self-induced stupor thinking that this thing is somehow in the bag. It is not.

Oh I know what you are going to say, "Look at Mitt Romney, look how pathetic he is..." Actually pathetic is a kind word for Romney and this campaign. Mitt Romney is to presidential campaigns as the Delta House grade point average was to Faber College -- the worst in history. I mean, my God, when you hold a press conference to rebut charges that you have a Cold War mentality and then you have foreign policy "experts" talk about Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union in "contemporary" terms -- really?

I know that the Swiss and Cayman Island bank accounts drive swing voters and independents over the edge. I've gotten all of the reports from focus group moderators as to how devastating this is to Romney.

Why a man who knows he is running for president (who claims to know something about the American economy) would for any reason keep money in offshore accounts, I have no idea. And I know that we are going to take him out to the cornfield (like at the end of the movie "Casino") on the Ryan budget.

However, I fear that all of this will not be enough unless we have a real change of attitude about the difficult campaign ahead of us. It has been said that, "Nothing so focuses a man's attention as the prospect of being hanged." Look around Democrats -- Come November let's make sure that it's Mitt and his bunch at the end of that figurative rope and not us.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/08/opinion/carville-democrats-could-lose/index.html

[garebear]

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