Romney double digit lead

[Coach is Back!]

The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.

An Ipsos/Reuters poll trumpets a five point lead for Barack Obama, and since the rest of the media keeps tight as a herd of cows before a thunderstorm, millions believe it. Such “rainmaking,” or using polls to make results instead of report them, is common in the pro-Democrat mainstream media.

But these polls are bogus, to put it mildly. Simply put, the mainstream media are mixing in registered voters (which skews Democrat, even though many might not vote), and playing games with the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakdown.

Rasmussen has this breakdown as about 37.6% Republican (and a record number since November 2002), 33.3% Democrat, and 29.2% “Other.” As the Examiner reports, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has “52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters.”

Thus, Reuters/Ipsos is oversampling Democrats by about 15% and undersampling and misrepresenting Independents.  Independents are favoring Romney, not “leaning Democrat,” so it is dishonest to lump together Independents and Democrats.

Many more strongly disapprove of the president’s job in office than strongly approve, the majority dislike big government policies, and most believe the country is on the wrong track. More trust Mitt Romney on the economy, which is overwhelmingly this election’s most important issue, and the president’s lead on foreign policy is shriveling.

If anything, the presidential polling should be neck-in-neck. The only landslide here is the mainstream media’s reputation crumbling and their continued slide into irrelevance.
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http://www.ijreview.com/2012/09/16897-romney-ahead-double-digits-after-unskewing-polls/

[Necrosis]

The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.

An Ipsos/Reuters poll trumpets a five point lead for Barack Obama, and since the rest of the media keeps tight as a herd of cows before a thunderstorm, millions believe it. Such “rainmaking,” or using polls to make results instead of report them, is common in the pro-Democrat mainstream media.

But these polls are bogus, to put it mildly. Simply put, the mainstream media are mixing in registered voters (which skews Democrat, even though many might not vote), and playing games with the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakdown.

Rasmussen has this breakdown as about 37.6% Republican (and a record number since November 2002), 33.3% Democrat, and 29.2% “Other.” As the Examiner reports, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has “52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters.”

Thus, Reuters/Ipsos is oversampling Democrats by about 15% and undersampling and misrepresenting Independents.  Independents are favoring Romney, not “leaning Democrat,” so it is dishonest to lump together Independents and Democrats.

Many more strongly disapprove of the president’s job in office than strongly approve, the majority dislike big government policies, and most believe the country is on the wrong track. More trust Mitt Romney on the economy, which is overwhelmingly this election’s most important issue, and the president’s lead on foreign policy is shriveling.

If anything, the presidential polling should be neck-in-neck. The only landslide here is the mainstream media’s reputation crumbling and their continued slide into irrelevance.
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http://www.ijreview.com/2012/09/16897-romney-ahead-double-digits-after-unskewing-polls/

LOL!! you are a nitwit, there is no data that suggests this, it is a guess based on spurious data. Get a life and stop being a teamster, romney will never win this election, he is a bad candidate.

[Necrosis]

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/09/obamas-lead-starting-look-insurmountable

some of the most dominating stats ever, romney is dunnnnnnnnn

[Coach is Back!]

"Mother Jones" have you no shame, oh wait, of course.not. you're a lib. Haha

[Necrosis]

"Mother Jones" have you no shame, oh wait, of course.not. you're a lib. Haha

the source of the article is inconsequential, the data is correct you nitwit.

[MCWAY]

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/09/obamas-lead-starting-look-insurmountable

some of the most dominating stats ever, romney is dunnnnnnnnn

PLEASE!!! Carter had a bigger lead on Reagan, back in the day. Plus, if you want to post stats, how abut Gallup's data citing that, since the 1950s, no president with less than 50% approval this late in the race has been re-elected. Latest Gallup poll has Obama in 47%.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/keyword/Morning-Jay

This Kevin Drum is full of bull, especially with his claim about undecided voters. I posted a thread on that weeks ago.

Look at the last 8 elections, involving incumbents. Only one (George W. Bush) gained undecided voters, during his re-election bid. The other ALL LOST that segment (even if they got re-elected).

In these races, the undecided vote went heavily for the insurgent and the incumbent lost vote share between the final poll and the election, even when the incumbent was winning the contest easily overall. Six of eight presidents seeking reelection performed worse than the final Gallup poll predicted, while one finished the same (Reagan in 1984) and one gained votes (Bush in 2004). Seven of the nine insurgent candidates did better than the final Gallup survey predicted.

• In 1964, Johnson lost 3 points to Goldwater at the end.

• In 1972, Nixon lost 1 point to a third-party candidate.

• In 1976, there was a 4-point swing to Carter.

• In 1980, there was a 3-point swing to Reagan or Anderson.

• In 1984, there was no change between the final poll and the results.

• In 1992, there was a 1-point shift away from Bush. In that contest, there was also a 5-point swing away from Clinton to Perot at the end.

• In 1996, there was a 5-point swing away from Clinton and to Dole or Perot.

• Only Bush in 2004 ran better in the result than in the final poll, by 
2 points.

http://www.dickmorris.com/undecided-lean-to-insurgent

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/09/25/how-carter-beat-reagan

[MCWAY]

The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.

An Ipsos/Reuters poll trumpets a five point lead for Barack Obama, and since the rest of the media keeps tight as a herd of cows before a thunderstorm, millions believe it. Such “rainmaking,” or using polls to make results instead of report them, is common in the pro-Democrat mainstream media.

But these polls are bogus, to put it mildly. Simply put, the mainstream media are mixing in registered voters (which skews Democrat, even though many might not vote), and playing games with the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakdown.

Rasmussen has this breakdown as about 37.6% Republican (and a record number since November 2002), 33.3% Democrat, and 29.2% “Other.” As the Examiner reports, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has “52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters.”

Thus, Reuters/Ipsos is oversampling Democrats by about 15% and undersampling and misrepresenting Independents.  Independents are favoring Romney, not “leaning Democrat,” so it is dishonest to lump together Independents and Democrats.

Many more strongly disapprove of the president’s job in office than strongly approve, the majority dislike big government policies, and most believe the country is on the wrong track. More trust Mitt Romney on the economy, which is overwhelmingly this election’s most important issue, and the president’s lead on foreign policy is shriveling.

If anything, the presidential polling should be neck-in-neck. The only landslide here is the mainstream media’s reputation crumbling and their continued slide into irrelevance.
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http://www.ijreview.com/2012/09/16897-romney-ahead-double-digits-after-unskewing-polls/

Let the libs keep oversampling Dems and telling themselves, for the nth time, that Obama's got this locked up. It'll only make the meltdowns and excuses that much lamer, should Obama taste defeat.

[240 is Back]

Did this oversampling of dems happen in 2008 also?   Cause the polls were very accurate in 08.  Given the use of modern computers, they're getting pretty good at predicting how 100 million people will vote.  538.com got all but 1 state right.  Intrade was only 1 electoral vote off lol.  Rassmussen nailed the percentages perfectly.  And they're only getting more precise.


If the use of vague hopeful articles helps deliver happiness for some, I'm all for it. 

But to believe they'll be right - when even the right-leaning rassmussen says otherwise.... well, hard to believe that.

[MCWAY]

Did this oversampling of dems happen in 2008 also?   Cause the polls were very accurate in 08.  Given the use of modern computers, they're getting pretty good at predicting how 100 million people will vote.  538.com got all but 1 state right.  Intrade was only 1 electoral vote off lol.  Rassmussen nailed the percentages perfectly.  And they're only getting more precise.


If the use of vague hopeful articles helps deliver happiness for some, I'm all for it.  

But to believe they'll be right - when even the right-leaning rassmussen says otherwise.... well, hard to believe that.

Rasmussen says much the same thing. Plus, you're talking two different races. This time, Obama's the incumbent involved, with a lousy record. Obama will not have anywhere near the turnout he did in 2008 (youth voters will return to its traditional lows and black voter turnout will probably be lower, between high unemployment and the gay "marriage" flap), as has been constantly shown by the dwindling crowds at his speeches.

The novelty has worn off. All that aura of making history is gone, too. Add to that the Middle East debacle and you have serious problems for Obama, especially with independents.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-pulls-ahead/

[240 is Back]

Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44

that number is just astounding.  Just incredible.  just unreal and amazing and outstanding.

It's a 15 point swing from every other poll - EVEN the republican leaning polls like Rass and the FOX news polls.

Romney by TEN.