Time to call it....

[garebear]

Guys, quit fighting.

[OzmO]

PSA 

No need for ad hom on this thread.

[Soul Crusher]

LOL - come on Team Barry - refute this

here is why -

1.  Obama has not converted one McCain voter.  thus - Romney starts w basement of about 47.

2.   many repubs stayed home in 2008 when Obama was looked destined to win. 

3.  2008 - RECORD demo turnout.   2012 will see less demo turnout and more repubs.

4.  Romney is better funded than McCain was and is not being outspent 3-1. 

5.  the GOP base is more behind Romney than they were McCain.  Whether it's the lack of palin or the hatred of Obama - GOP base is more fired up. 

6.  No "old man" or " dumb bimbo" factor like in 2008.

7.  Obama got a lot of crossover votes in 2008 that are now going to Romney. 

8.  indes favor Romney by a good margin

9.  Obama now has a record.   Blaming bush is old.

10.  Obama's so called "history making moment" is long over.   people don't. Give a shit anymore. 

11. Romney / Ryan is way better than McCain Palin presentation wise. 

12.  Obama won't get the youth turnout he did in 2008 and old people are PISSED off. 

13.  Blacks and Hispanics will not be fired up to race to vote for Obama like 2008.   




Tally all this up and it is at least worth a 6 point swing. From 2008.

[Soul Crusher]

Here is why -

 
1. Obama has not converted one McCain voter.  Thus - Romney starts w basement of about 47%.
 
2. Many repubs stayed home in 2008 when Obama was looked destined to win according to all the polls.  How much is that worth?  Who knows, but maybe 1-2%?
 
3. 2008 - RECORD demo turnout.  In fact Demo turnout was +8.  2012 will see less demo turnout and more repubs and indes.  Right now Obama is losing to Romney big w indes.
 
4. Romney is better funded than McCain was and is not being outspent 3-1.
 
5. The GOP base is more behind Romney than they were McCain. Whether it’s the lack of palin or the hatred of Obama - GOP base is more fired up than ever. 
 
6. No “old man” or “ dumb bimbo” factor like in 2008.  Say what you want - but Romney/Ryan projects a lot better than McCain Palin visually.
 
7. Obama got a lot of crossover votes in 2008 that are now going to Romney. 
 
8.  Indes favor Romney by a good marginby about 10+ or better.
 
9. Obama now has a record. Blaming bush is old.   He is running a ridiculous campaign on big bird, condoms, binders, name calling, etc. 
 
10. Obama’s so called “history making moment” is long over.  People don’t give a shit anymore as the economy is still a disaster, obamacare looimng large, etc. 
 
11. Romney / Ryan is way better than McCain Palin presentation wise.  Both are better speakers and better campaigners. 
 
12. Obama won’t get the youth turnout he did in 2008 and old people are PISSED off.  College kids are scared for the future and old people are scared of the death panels and the continued zero interest rates robbing them blind. 
 
13. Blacks and Hispanics will not be fired up to race to vote for Obama like 2008. 

 

[tu_holmes]

Obama 281-257. I give him OH, NV, IA, MI, WI, PA, and NH. I give Romney FL, CO, NC, and VA. Moving IA and NH to Romney in this scenario still gives Obama the EC victory. Romney could win WI but will still lose without OH

Obama will move heaven and earth to win Ohio. That includes early voting, voter fraud, voting without ID, non-stop ads about how he saved the auto industry, and giving away shit such as Obama-phones. He's done enough in the past four years to win this state, such as increase welfare, food stamps, government dependence, etc. The 47% don't give a shit where the money comes from as long as they get their checks.

Romney winning NV and IA, but losing OH and NH would help create a 269-269 tie. Just saying. Romney could get one electoral vote in ME and win 270-268. It could get crazy.

It is... I actually have it 272 to 268 Obama... THAT is how close it's really going to be I think.

But, I have been wrong before... So we certainly shall see.

[Soul Crusher]

Bump for Vince and Blackass 

[MCWAY]

Here is why -

 
1. Obama has not converted one McCain voter.  Thus - Romney starts w basement of about 47%.
 
2. Many repubs stayed home in 2008 when Obama was looked destined to win according to all the polls.  How much is that worth?  Who knows, but maybe 1-2%?
 
3. 2008 - RECORD demo turnout.  In fact Demo turnout was +8.  2012 will see less demo turnout and more repubs and indes.  Right now Obama is losing to Romney big w indes.
 
4. Romney is better funded than McCain was and is not being outspent 3-1.
 
5. The GOP base is more behind Romney than they were McCain. Whether it’s the lack of palin or the hatred of Obama - GOP base is more fired up than ever. 
 
6. No “old man” or “ dumb bimbo” factor like in 2008.  Say what you want - but Romney/Ryan projects a lot better than McCain Palin visually.
 
7. Obama got a lot of crossover votes in 2008 that are now going to Romney. 
 
8.  Indes favor Romney by a good marginby about 10+ or better.
 
9. Obama now has a record. Blaming bush is old.   He is running a ridiculous campaign on big bird, condoms, binders, name calling, etc. 
 
10. Obama’s so called “history making moment” is long over.  People don’t give a shit anymore as the economy is still a disaster, obamacare looimng large, etc. 
 
11. Romney / Ryan is way better than McCain Palin presentation wise.  Both are better speakers and better campaigners. 
 
12. Obama won’t get the youth turnout he did in 2008 and old people are PISSED off.  College kids are scared for the future and old people are scared of the death panels and the continued zero interest rates robbing them blind. 
 
13. Blacks and Hispanics will not be fired up to race to vote for Obama like 2008. 

 

You forgot "Romnesia". 

[Wayne Root]

It will be an exact tie, followed by a cage match.

Obama will win via arm bar in the third round.

MARK MY WORDS. You heard it here first.

Romney will win in case of a tie in the House of Representatives. No cage match, arm bars, triangle chokes, etc., required.

[Hugo Chavez]

depends on who cheats more.  I suspect there will be more voter fraud in this election than any other.  We've had 3 elections in a row now with massive proof of wrongdoing and not a single politician willing to push to fix problems in the voting system or only push to fix problems that benefit their party.  The message is that there is a 99% chance the fraud will pay off and they'll get away with it. And I'm not calling out one side more than another here.

[240 is Back]

depends on who cheats more.  I suspect there will be more voter fraud in this election than any other.  We've had 3 elections in a row now with massive proof of wrongdoing and not a single politician willing to push to fix problems in the voting system or only push to fix problems that benefit their party.  The message is that there is a 99% chance the fraud will pay off and they'll get away with it. And I'm not calling out one side more than another here.

i'd give the edge to the incumbent in a case of prez voter fraud.

[OzmO]

Anymore predictions?

[Dos Equis]

Here is why -

 
1. Obama has not converted one McCain voter.  Thus - Romney starts w basement of about 47%.
 
2. Many repubs stayed home in 2008 when Obama was looked destined to win according to all the polls.  How much is that worth?  Who knows, but maybe 1-2%?
 
3. 2008 - RECORD demo turnout.  In fact Demo turnout was +8.  2012 will see less demo turnout and more repubs and indes.  Right now Obama is losing to Romney big w indes.
 
4. Romney is better funded than McCain was and is not being outspent 3-1.
 
5. The GOP base is more behind Romney than they were McCain. Whether it’s the lack of palin or the hatred of Obama - GOP base is more fired up than ever. 
 
6. No “old man” or “ dumb bimbo” factor like in 2008.  Say what you want - but Romney/Ryan projects a lot better than McCain Palin visually.
 
7. Obama got a lot of crossover votes in 2008 that are now going to Romney. 
 
8.  Indes favor Romney by a good marginby about 10+ or better.
 
9. Obama now has a record. Blaming bush is old.   He is running a ridiculous campaign on big bird, condoms, binders, name calling, etc. 
 
10. Obama’s so called “history making moment” is long over.  People don’t give a shit anymore as the economy is still a disaster, obamacare looimng large, etc. 
 
11. Romney / Ryan is way better than McCain Palin presentation wise.  Both are better speakers and better campaigners. 
 
12. Obama won’t get the youth turnout he did in 2008 and old people are PISSED off.  College kids are scared for the future and old people are scared of the death panels and the continued zero interest rates robbing them blind. 
 
13. Blacks and Hispanics will not be fired up to race to vote for Obama like 2008. 

 

Good analysis.  I agree with this. 

[POB]

Here is why -

 
1. Obama has not converted one McCain voter.  Thus - Romney starts w basement of about 47%.
 
2. Many repubs stayed home in 2008 when Obama was looked destined to win according to all the polls.  How much is that worth?  Who knows, but maybe 1-2%?
 
3. 2008 - RECORD demo turnout.  In fact Demo turnout was +8.  2012 will see less demo turnout and more repubs and indes.  Right now Obama is losing to Romney big w indes.
 
4. Romney is better funded than McCain was and is not being outspent 3-1.
 
5. The GOP base is more behind Romney than they were McCain. Whether it’s the lack of palin or the hatred of Obama - GOP base is more fired up than ever. 
 
6. No “old man” or “ dumb bimbo” factor like in 2008.  Say what you want - but Romney/Ryan projects a lot better than McCain Palin visually.
 
7. Obama got a lot of crossover votes in 2008 that are now going to Romney. 
 
8.  Indes favor Romney by a good marginby about 10+ or better.
 
9. Obama now has a record. Blaming bush is old.   He is running a ridiculous campaign on big bird, condoms, binders, name calling, etc. 
 
10. Obama’s so called “history making moment” is long over.  People don’t give a shit anymore as the economy is still a disaster, obamacare looimng large, etc. 
 
11. Romney / Ryan is way better than McCain Palin presentation wise.  Both are better speakers and better campaigners. 
 
12. Obama won’t get the youth turnout he did in 2008 and old people are PISSED off.  College kids are scared for the future and old people are scared of the death panels and the continued zero interest rates robbing them blind. 
 
13. Blacks and Hispanics will not be fired up to race to vote for Obama like 2008. 

 

#6 you have "magic underwear" and "rape baby" now much better

[240 is Back]

33,

the only path to a win for romney is tied-269 with the House awarding him the job.

[MCWAY]

33,

the only path to a win for romney is tied-269 with the House awarding him the job.

Why do you continue to spout this silliness?

If Romney wins Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Hampshire, coupled with Florida, NC, and Virginia, HE DOES NOT NEED OHIO to win.

[240 is Back]

Why do you continue to spout this silliness?

If Romney wins Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Hampshire, coupled with Florida, NC, and Virginia, HE DOES NOT NEED OHIO to win.

That's a big if.   Wisc, colorado would both be HUGE wins.  NH?  Hmmmm

FL i'll give him, NC i dunno... virgina ok...

I think if he's good enough to take ALL 6 of these swing states, then he'll be up by 6 points in OH.

[MCWAY]

That's a big if.   Wisc, colorado would both be HUGE wins.  NH?  Hmmmm

FL i'll give him, NC i dunno... virgina ok...

I think if he's good enough to take ALL 6 of these swing states, then he'll be up by 6 points in OH.

You don't know about NC? What evidence is there that Obama's doing anything, other than a PPP poll (oversampling Dems by almost 10 points) that has it tied?

No new buys in that area, not to mention Obama's angering the folks there by endorsing gay "marriage".....Obama barely won that state last time.

If you have some more data to support your claim, I'd like to see it.

[240 is Back]

You don't know about NC? What evidence is there that Obama's doing anything, other than a PPP poll (oversampling Dems by almost 10 points) that has it tied?

No new buys in that area, not to mention Obama's angering the folks there by endorsing gay "marriage".....Obama barely won that state last time.

If you have some more data to support your claim, I'd like to see it.

Obama is the incumbent this time.   Dirty tricks all the way.

What i'm saying is that looking at 33's theory - that Romney can grab ALL SIX of those swing states, Ohio will only be icing on the cake.  If he wins ALL SIX, he'll have OH easily.   I still think Romney can win, but he's gotta be careful trying to just cruise to victory.

Bill OReilly was criticizing him tonight for trying to cruise, saying he won't do interviews and is resting on his laurels.

If we have learned anything in these races, from nomination to general race, its that if you're not growing, you're shrinking.  Newt was the obvious winner at one point.  Obama was up to 83+% just a few weeks back.

IF IF IF 333386 is right - and Romney has ALL SIX of those states, it's going to go against what we've seen this entire season.

[MCWAY]

Obama is the incumbent this time.   Dirty tricks all the way.

What i'm saying is that looking at 33's theory - that Romney can grab ALL SIX of those swing states, Ohio will only be icing on the cake.  If he wins ALL SIX, he'll have OH easily.   I still think Romney can win, but he's gotta be careful trying to just cruise to victory.

Bill OReilly was criticizing him tonight for trying to cruise, saying he won't do interviews and is resting on his laurels.

If we have learned anything in these races, from nomination to general race, its that if you're not growing, you're shrinking.  Newt was the obvious winner at one point.  Obama was up to 83+% just a few weeks back.

IF IF IF 333386 is right - and Romney has ALL SIX of those states, it's going to go against what we've seen this entire season.

Obama is the incumbent and has been doing his dirty tricks. The problem (for his camp, at least) is THEY AIN'T WORKIN'.

And unless Obama does something drastic in the next week and a half, this could get ugly for him and his crew.

[240 is Back]

Obama is the incumbent and has been doing his dirty tricks. The problem (for his camp, at least) is THEY AIN'T WORKIN'.

And unless Obama does something drastic in the next week and a half, this could get ugly for him and his crew.

I'm talking about the kinds of dirty tricks that take place on election day.

if this election is close, obama gonna cheat, cheat, cheat and win.  Romney wins by 3 states, or he doesn't win.

[MCWAY]

I'm talking about the kinds of dirty tricks that take place on election day.

if this election is close, obama gonna cheat, cheat, cheat and win.  Romney wins by 3 states, or he doesn't win.

He can cheat, cheat, and cheat. That doesn't mean he's going to win. This is the information age. And this election will watch more closely than any other.

I don't fear the Democrats at all: Not their supposed ground game, not their "Fired up and ready to go" rah-rah mess, not their so-called early voter advantage which they had the last two primetime elections (2010 midterms, 2012 Wisconsin recall) and got murdered.

[240 is Back]

He can cheat, cheat, and cheat. That doesn't mean he's going to win. This is the information age. And this election will watch more closely than any other.

I don't fear the Democrats at all: Not their supposed ground game, not their "Fired up and ready to go" rah-rah mess, not their so-called early voter advantage which they had the last two primetime elections (2010 midterms, 2012 Wisconsin recall) and got murdered.

According to respected repub voice Michael Savage, the votes are being counted in Spain by a company owned by Soros.

http://www.michaelsavage.wnd.com/

He said we already know the result of this election.   He's a very smart guy.  Maybe he's wrong.  But aside from this conspiracy theory, if it is close, i'm not bettng against the dems doing whatever it takes to win.

[Dos Equis]

Looks like he agrees with 33.

Gingrich: Romney Will Score More Than 300 Electoral Votes
Friday, 26 Oct 2012
By Newsmax Wires

Former GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich predicts Mitt Romney will enjoy a comfortable victory on Election Day, taking home more than 300 electoral votes.

He needs 270 votes to gain the White House.

"I believe the minimum result will be 53 percent to 47 percent for Romney, over 300 electoral votes, and the Republicans will pick up the Senate,” the former House Speaker tells Fox News. “I base that on just years and years of experience.”

Specifically, Gingrich cites what he calls the “Carville Rule,” named after Democratic strategist James Carville. The rule stipulates that whatever percentage number an incumbent receives in final polls is the number he’ll receive in the election, The Hill reports.

For example, if Obama and Romney are tied at 47 percent on Nov. 5, that means Obama will garner 47 percent of the vote and Romney 53 percent.

Important states are turning Romney’s way Gingrich says. “You start carrying a Wisconsin, Virginia's gonna get sealed off, Florida's gonna get sealed off, North Carolina's already sealed off. Michigan's starting to be in play, I think Pennsylvania's starting to be in play."

CNBC commentator Larry Kudlow is another expert who sees Romney winning more than 300 electoral votes — 330 to be exact. “I believe he will sweep the Midwest and win this election going away,” Kudlow says.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/gingrich-romney-electoral-college/2012/10/26/id/461600

[240 is Back]

I don't trust Democratic strategist James Carville, sorry.

[Soul Crusher]

Skip to comments.
Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot: #Republicans 46%, #Democrats 43%
 Rasmussen Reports ^

Posted on Monday, October 29, 2012 2:32:34 PM by sunmars

Generic Congressional Ballot: #Republicans 46%, #Democrats 43%..

Rasmussen

Republicans now lead Democrats by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending October 28, 2012.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 43% would choose the Democrat instead.


(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...






LANDSLIDE COMING