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Author Topic: SORRY GUYS.....OBAMA IS NOT GOING TO WIN  (Read 1925 times)
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« Reply #25 on: October 27, 2012, 01:53:45 PM »

Andreisdaman preemptively pussying out in in this thread, despite the fact that the data indicates an Obama reelection as the most likely outcome. I'm going to slap you after 6 Nov!
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2012, 02:04:52 PM »

Obama's fuzzy Ohio early vote math
By: Adrian Gray
October 26, 2012 03:18 PM EDT
 
At this point in an election cycle, many campaign staffers are busy fighting the press on what they call “process stories.” The candidates and their staffs want to talk about their plans and policies while reporters covering them find their audiences demand a play-by-play of the horse race.

The result is constant overstuffing of campaign metrics and polling that only serve to muddy the waters for most political observers. In a close race, such as we have today, there is often plenty of data for both sides to use to their favor. One poll says this, another says that.

(See also: Latest polls from across U.S.)

This makes it especially surprising to see the piece put out by President Barack Obama’s field director this week on early voting in Ohio. When things are ugly for a campaign, these types of memos can start flying. It is troubling for the president’s supporters that they could not come up with at least a handful of positive data points in Ohio. I worked as director of strategy at the Republican National Committee during the difficult 2006 election cycle — I know firsthand how hard it it is to come up with positive data in a negative cycle.

There are normally three signs you know a campaign metrics memo is purely spin.

1. Anecdotes: “We have seen groups as big as 100 voters going to vote in Athens, Ohio.” Only 604 democrats have voted in person in the entire county and no more than 40 in a single precinct (that would be Athens 3-5, for those scoring at home).

(Also on POLITICO: Romney's road to victory in Ohio)

2. Unverifiable Data: “Precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate”: This is unverifiable and misleading because there is no such thing as an “Obama precinct.” Every ten years, the entire country rebalances its voting districts based on a constitutionally mandated census. In 2010, this process redrew the lines of reportable voting areas that were used in 2008. So this year, we have entirely new precincts, thereby making it impossible to validate their claim.

3. Cherry-picking random sub-poll data: “Time poll shows the President up 60-30” among early voters. That sub-sample was asked of 145 people and was one of many of similar ilk (with a huge variation in results). Their central data argument is that 43 more people told Time’s pollster over a two-day window they supported Obama. If that is their best claim to a lead in Ohio, it is a troubling picture for the president.

(See also: POLITICO's swing-state map)

I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Adrian Gray is a veteran of two winning presidential campaigns, the White House, the RNC and the Pickens Plan. He is currently working in Asset Management in New York and can be found on twitter at @adrian_gray
 
© 2012 POLITICO LLC
 

More information & opt-out options »What is interest based advertising »Learn more about quadrantONE »Privacy Controls by Evidon[ X ]This ad has been matched to your interests. It was selected for you based on your browsing activity.


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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2012, 02:57:30 PM »

I'm not sure it matters who wins... I've no confidence that either one are out for my best interests..
This!
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« Reply #28 on: October 27, 2012, 02:58:58 PM »

This!

actually it does matter.   When thousands of businesses go on capital strike because we have a communist traitor and marxist slug in the WH it impacts a lot.   
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« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2012, 05:33:26 PM »

actually it does matter.   When thousands of businesses go on capital strike because we have a communist traitor and marxist slug in the WH it impacts a lot.   
I wish I could still share your enthusiasm in the Political System. All I see in front of me are whores.
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« Reply #30 on: October 27, 2012, 05:36:47 PM »

I wish I could still share your enthusiasm in the Political System. All I see in front of me are whores.

I'm talking about the system, but about the many millions of business interactions that go on daily.  Millions of businesses simply will not hire or expand until obama is gone.  That alone will unleash a capital expansion and confidence by many to expand and take chances that will beneficially impact many people.  Is it based on anything realistic or substanative?  Maybr maybe not - but its reality. 

Obama is deposed from office and millions of businesses will take more chances and expand and spend more $$$$

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« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2012, 10:13:25 PM »

Not pussying out at all....I am painted on here as a far left liberal, and I wear the liberal label proudly but I am not far left....I try to be as honest as possible....I just don't think Obama will be able to pull it off due only to the economy....people still feel the country needs a change...I don't agree but I have a feeling Obama will not carry the white vote this year in the numbers that he did...that will be his downfall....also will blacks and young adults come out for him in record numbers like they did???...no

I hope to God Obama wins....I think he has done so much for the country that he isn't given credit for....He even survived the conservatives trying to de-legitimize him...but its my feeling that the numbers showing high support for him are not accurate....I think many people who say they are going to vote for him ultimately will not....just my theory

just being honest like I have always been
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« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2012, 10:19:38 PM »

Were the numbers over-reported in '08?

Actually from some reports, yes....I think Google did a study which says that Obama should have won with a much higher percentage than he did based on data that they had....and it is a part of political theory that black candidates often poll higher against a white candidate than their strength actually is....its not racist to bring up this theory...its not something that I made up
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« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2012, 10:20:19 PM »

This!

what???...no racist remark>HuhHuh?........a first!!!
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« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2012, 10:20:55 PM »

actually it does matter.   When thousands of businesses go on capital strike because we have a communist traitor and marxist slug in the WH it impacts a lot.   

I knew you were going to fuck this thread up....sigh Undecided
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« Reply #35 on: October 28, 2012, 11:41:26 PM »

what???...no racist remark>HuhHuh?........a first!!!
You won't find me defending Bush. I think he is one of the worst Presidents ever. In fact, in 2008 I thought Obama made a lot of sense in his speeches. He spoke about the perils of government being too big, greedy Wall Street, the need to bring troops home and the need to stop spending so much money on the military industrial complex etc. etc.

And then he made a 180 degree turn and failed to deliver on any of these campaign promises. From 2008 till now I begun to understand the game is rigged as George Carlin put it.
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2012, 01:57:24 AM »

You won't find me defending Bush. I think he is one of the worst Presidents ever. In fact, in 2008 I thought Obama made a lot of sense in his speeches. He spoke about the perils of government being too big, greedy Wall Street, the need to bring troops home and the need to stop spending so much money on the military industrial complex etc. etc.

And then he made a 180 degree turn and failed to deliver on any of these campaign promises. From 2008 till now I begun to understand the game is rigged as George Carlin put it.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2012, 09:45:13 AM »

You won't find me defending Bush. I think he is one of the worst Presidents ever. In fact, in 2008 I thought Obama made a lot of sense in his speeches. He spoke about the perils of government being too big, greedy Wall Street, the need to bring troops home and the need to stop spending so much money on the military industrial complex etc. etc.

And then he made a 180 degree turn and failed to deliver on any of these campaign promises. From 2008 till now I begun to understand the game is rigged as George Carlin put it.

I do agree with you that the game is somewhat rigged...I think Obama underestimated his ability to get congress together and work bi-partisanly....you have a lot of entrenched interests in Washington....a lot of lobbyist....large Jewish influence....etc
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2012, 10:12:02 AM »

I do agree with you that the game is somewhat rigged...I think Obama underestimated his ability to get congress together and work bi-partisanly....you have a lot of entrenched interests in Washington....a lot of lobbyist....large Jewish influence....etc

LOL - so his total lack of any leadership whatsoever played no role on this? 
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2012, 10:15:58 AM »

actually it does matter.   When thousands of businesses go on capital strike because we have a communist traitor and marxist slug in the WH it impacts a lot.   

Just like all the docs walking off their jobs and rioting in the streets?   Roll Eyes
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2012, 10:17:25 AM »

Gallup Monday: Romney 51% Obama 46%
 Gallup ^ | 10/29/2012 | Staff

Posted on 10/29/2012 10:10:42 AM PDT by

All registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today, and it included Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic Party's candidates and Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan as the Republican Party's candidates. Who would you vote for [ROTATED: Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats (or) Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans]?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan and their leanings are incorporated into the results.


(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
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« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2012, 10:18:08 AM »

 Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

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andreisdaman
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« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2012, 11:42:52 AM »

LOL - so his total lack of any leadership whatsoever played no role on this?  

sigh.....you can't lead people who do not want to follow...no matter how hard you try...and the Republicans said they were not going to follow Obama essentially.....Mitch McConnell had openly proclaimed that his objective was to make sure Obama is not re-elected....how can you work with someone who proclaims this one year into your presidency
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« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2012, 11:44:42 AM »

sigh.....you can't lead people who do not want to follow...no matter how hard you try

 Roll Eyes 

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« Reply #44 on: October 29, 2012, 11:49:49 AM »

http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast


DONE
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« Reply #45 on: October 29, 2012, 11:51:50 AM »

LOL - so his total lack of any leadership whatsoever played no role on this? 


A part of good leadership is getting folks to work together to come to consensus and to resolve issues. Barbara Roberts, former Oregon Governor was well liked but many felt fairly ineffective because she often wasn't very successful at getting the Oregon legislature to work together on the issues.

It is your opinion that President Obama has exhibited a total lack of leadership. Opinions don't count as fact.
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« Reply #46 on: October 29, 2012, 11:53:59 AM »


A part of good leadership is getting folks to work together to come to consensus and to resolve issues. Barbara Roberts, former Oregon Governor was well liked but many felt fairly ineffective because she often wasn't very successful at getting the Oregon legislature to work together on the issues.

It is your opinion that President Obama has exhibited a total lack of leadership. Opinions don't count as fact.


Yes - Reagan worked w tip oneill

Bush with the congress

C;inton w newt

W with many demos


Its only obama who seems to have this problem. 
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« Reply #47 on: October 29, 2012, 12:09:18 PM »

Yes - Reagan worked w tip oneill

Bush with the congress

C;inton w newt

W with many demos


Its only obama who seems to have this problem. 

Personally (and this is just my opinion), I believe your statement is inaccurate, overstated and oversimplified.

"The worst president in U.S. history, George Bush, with a 74 percent disapproval rating by U.S. citizens along with the worst Congress with an 86 percent disapproval rating-- continue pushing the worst bill in American history." Frosty Wooldridge

Read this: 14 reasons why this is the worst Congress ever http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/07/13/13-reasons-why-this-is-the-worst-congress-ever/.

Quote
Recently, when House Majority Whip Rep. Kevin McCarthy was asked if this Congress was the actual "worst in history" -- as Washington Post columnist Ezra Klein had claimed -- his response was that he would agree the Senate is the worst in history, but not his part the House of Representatives.

Last year, Congress had its most futile year in history, passing only 80 bills (since records have been kept since 1947). This year, there have been 54 bills passed so far and 17 of those have been to rename either post offices or other places.
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012/08/03/worst-congress-ever/#ixzz2AiUDWe1f


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« Reply #48 on: October 29, 2012, 12:11:29 PM »

Personally (and this is just my opinion), I believe your statement is inaccurate, overstated and oversimplified.

"The worst president in U.S. history, George Bush, with a 74 percent disapproval rating by U.S. citizens along with the worst Congress with an 86 percent disapproval rating-- continue pushing the worst bill in American history." Frosty Wooldridge

Read this: 14 reasons why this is the worst Congress ever http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/07/13/13-reasons-why-this-is-the-worst-congress-ever/.
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012/08/03/worst-congress-ever/#ixzz2AiUDWe1f





Ok and?   The GOP is going to retain the house by most measures.   What does that forbode when Obama said he is powerless to change washington from within? 

Why elect a guy who already says he is incapable? 
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« Reply #49 on: October 29, 2012, 12:17:07 PM »


Ok and?   The GOP is going to retain the house by most measures.   What does that forbode when Obama said he is powerless to change washington from within? 

Why elect a guy who already says he is incapable? 

Why do you believe a change of President will make a difference in this stalemate with Congress?

I was merely pointing out what you failed to, which is there is more to getting Congress to enact laws then it might seem. To put all the blame on the President is ridiculous.
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