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Author Topic: Joe Scarborough: Romney running out of time  (Read 320 times)
blacken700
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« on: November 01, 2012, 10:01:36 AM »

http://www.politico.com/blogs/joe-scarborough/2012/10/polls-romney-running-out-of-time-147769.html
 
With President Obama maintaining his five-point lead in Ohio in today's poll, Romney must run the table on the six remaining swing states or expand the electoral map. Considering how rough the internals look in this morning's Ohio survey, Boston must know that winning the White House now depends on their candidate stealing Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania out of the Obama column next Tuesday. Their play in those three Midwest states now appears to be more out of weakness than strength, though a new survey does put Romney within 3 points in Michigan.








 







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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2012, 10:20:43 PM »

http://www.politico.com/blogs/joe-scarborough/2012/10/polls-romney-running-out-of-time-147769.html
 
With President Obama maintaining his five-point lead in Ohio in today's poll, Romney must run the table on the six remaining swing states or expand the electoral map. Considering how rough the internals look in this morning's Ohio survey, Boston must know that winning the White House now depends on their candidate stealing Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania out of the Obama column next Tuesday. Their play in those three Midwest states now appears to be more out of weakness than strength, though a new survey does put Romney within 3 points in Michigan.








 









Joe apparently can't count. Romney doesn't need any of those three states to beat Obama. The fact that Obama has to defend them, this late in the game, show the weakness in his camp (not that of Romney).

Give Romney the southeast (NC, FL, VA) and that puts him at 248. Romney wins Colorado, where he's up or tied and he gets to 257.

270 minus 257 is 13. Ohio would put him over the top....BUT, you have Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa, where polls have it basically tied or Romney up. Combined they have 20 EC votes. If Romney gets Wisconsin and one of the other two, HE WINS.....without Ohio at 271 or 273.

One outside shout would be Romney getting Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire, which would also put Romney at 273.

With all of that said, Obama's trump card of early voting is wilted away, as he's WAAAAAAAAAAY down from 2008. The difference between what the Dems have lost and what the GOP has gained is about equal to the margin by which Obama won Ohio in 2008.

Dollars to donuts, Obama will NOT have the turnout he did in '08, which is what some of these polls that have him up 4 or 5 assume. With reduced turnout for the Democrats and Romney's lead with independents, Romney is in position to win Ohio.

Basically, leaving Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota out of the equation, Romney needs:

- Ohio, or
- Wisconsin and a single-digit swing state, or
- All three single-digit swing states, or
- Nevada and Iowa (that would tie it at 269, with the GOP-run House being the tiebreaker).
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2012, 10:32:35 PM »

Even NBC had Romney ahead in the electoral vote count tonight
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2012, 03:26:26 AM »

"Give Romney the southeast (NC, FL, VA) "

IF Romney wins those 3, then colorado and ohio are probably already his as well.  I can't help but think obama takes VA though.
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2012, 03:34:48 AM »

Not sure about VA...I think Romney wins based on motivation. Ohio is the battleground.....and hell even Nevada could go. Jobs report will sway some voters and the polls will be locked going into tuesday. This thing may not be over for awhile...I bet we're still bitiching at each other Wednesday morning.
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2012, 03:55:24 AM »

romney should be winning every single swing state - independents and undecideds all favor romney.   Obama should NOT still be in this race, but any measure.  

agreed it'll probably not be over on wednesday morning.  technology/polling is usually so good, they know right away... but there could be 15 states that go either way by the time this is over... add in all the early voting to skew exit results that day... yeah it could be a mess - THAT favors obama, since the govt counts the votes...
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