Sam Wang called the election almost exactly back in ... July.
Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 332 EV, Romney 206 - Obama wins 51% popular vote.
http://election.princeton.edu/ His Prediction: "President: Obama vote share 51.5 +/- 0.2 %, Obama 332 EV to Romney 206 EV. Current evaluation: Obama’s going to win. As of today it’s 7 sigma (huge). For November I still give him 7-1 odds, favorable."
