The funny thing about people who think it was Oswald is that now the consensus is that Oswald's first shot missed.

Yep, that's the consensus. I've been watching all the specials the last few weeks.
The lone shooter believers say that the first shot missed the car completely.
Say what?

Oswald had pulled the bolt back. He had aimed. He had time (and a better chance) to shoot Kennedy coming down Houston Street.
An easy shot. Nowhere for the car to go. If it accelerates forward, you have time for more shots. If it tries to back up, it smashes into the other cars in the motorcade.
Does Oswald shoot Kennedy coming down Houston Street?
Nope.
He waits. And waits. He waits for him to make a turn on Elm Street and begin accelerating away from him.
He now has to make a far more difficult shot, not to mention that he has to shoot through a tree (Texas live oak).
And now they say the first shot missed? The easiest of the bunch?
Too funny.

So in a rush to get off shots two and three with a manual bolt action rifle that has widely been viewed as the single worst shoulder weapon ever made, he scores a throat shot (not to mention a two-for-one with it magically hitting Connolly), but a head shot on the third.
Yeah, right.
