16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates

[Dos Equis]

Christie to Join 2016 GOP Field Tuesday

Image: Christie to Join 2016 GOP Field Tuesday (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Thursday, 25 Jun 2015

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will join the crowded Republican 2016 field on Tuesday, two people with knowledge of his plans said.
Christie, 52, will cap months of speculation with an announcement in his hometown of Livingston, said the people, who asked for anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak before his speech.

While Christie previously said he hadn’t made up his mind about a run, he’s spent recent months making policy speeches and holding meetings in key primary states including New Hampshire and Iowa. He’s traveled as “honorary chairman” of Leadership Matters for America, his political action committee.

Samantha Smith, a committee spokeswoman, didn’t immediately return a telephone call seeking comment.

The Republican will join a field that includes more than a dozen candidates vying for the party’s nomination in 2016. Christie turned down calls from business and political leaders to run four years ago and has struggled to recapture that momentum after allies created a massive traffic snarl as political retribution for a mayor.

His approval among New Jersey registered voters fell to a low of 30 percent in a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released June 23. In New Hampshire, which has the first-in- the-nation primary, Christie got 5 percent of the vote in a Suffolk University poll released the same day.

Matthew Hale, who teaches political science at Seton Hall University in South Orange, said the announcement’s timing makes sense as the Democrats who control the Legislature were poised to approve a budget today that would raise taxes. Christie is expected to veto those provisions.

“He’s got to get in, and the window is closing with so many people in the race,” Hale said in an interview. “He can stand up and say: ‘I’m the Republican keeping these crazy Democrats in check.’ That’s a plausible line.”

His plans for a campaign announcement were reported earlier Thursday by WNYC radio.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/christie-announce-2016-GOP/2015/06/25/id/652196/#ixzz3e6WOXQho

[LurkerNoMore]

^^ Governor with the second lowest approval rating joins the clown car.

[Dos Equis]

Scott Walker to Announce Presidential Decision Week of July 13
Thursday, 25 Jun 2015

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker said on Thursday he will announce the week of July 13 whether he will seek the Republican U.S. presidential nomination in 2016.

"The week of the 13th is when we will be likely to make our announcement as to what our intentions are," Scott told Fox News.

Walker is in second place among the large field of Republican presidential candidates and expected entrants, trailing front-runner Jeb Bush, a former Florida governor, in an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.

If he decides to run, Walker, 47, would enter the race with the potential to appeal to a wide swath of Republican primary voters, from establishment-minded moderates to conservative Christians.

Shortly after becoming governor in 2011, Walker proposed curbing the collective-bargaining rights of teachers and other public employees in the state. The ensuing political battle rallied conservatives and brought him national attention.

When Walker's measure became law, labor unions mounted an unsuccessful effort to recall him in 2012.

Walker won re-election in 2014, claiming victory for a third time in a political battleground state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/scott-walker-presidential-announcement-july/2015/06/25/id/652301/#ixzz3eCFRFPwW

[LurkerNoMore]

Bobby Jindal is so white.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/sahilrizwan/bobby-brown#.oyXg5v3m0a


And stupid.  But let's just get rid of the SCOTUS huh?   

[polychronopolous]

Ben Carson wins conservative straw poll, Fiorina and Walker close behind



Ben Carson, the famed surgeon turned presidential candidate, rode his outsider message to victory on Sunday at the Western Conservative Summit straw poll sponsored by the Washington Examiner, edging out former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Taken together, the results point to the resonance of the anti-Washington message among conservative audiences, as all three candidates argued in different ways that they would shake up the D.C. status quo.

Carson garnered 26 percent of the 871 votes cast; Fiorina got 23 percent; Walker was at 22 percent; and Ted Cruz, at 11 percent, was the only other candidate to make it into double-digits (he didn't speak at the conference, though his father gave a rousing talk on his behalf).

The results were especially disappointing for Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, who both spoke at the conference. The attendees were heavily socially conservative, generally Huckabee and Santorum's core supporters. But Santorum was only at two percent of the vote and Huckabee got just one percent — and actually earned fewer raw votes than Donald Trump, who was also at 2 percent.

[240 is Back]

straw poll... awesome for people that love explosive quotes and extreme anger.

[Dos Equis]

John Kasich to announce presidential bid July 21
By MIKE ALLEN
Updated 6/29/15



Ohio Gov. John Kasich will jump into the crowded Republican presidential field on July 21 at the student union at his alma mater, The Ohio State University, in Columbus, advisers tell POLITICO.

Kasich, 63, who was overwhelmingly reelected in November, will aim to appear less scripted and guarded than the leading candidates. Advisers say he combines establishment appeal with a conservative record going back to his stint as House Budget Committee chairman, during his 18 years as a congressman from Ohio.

Despite his late start, Kasich will be one of the most closely watched candidates — partly because Ohio is such a crucial presidential state, putting Kasich on many short lists for vice president.

Kasich briefly pursued a presidential bid in the 2000 cycle, but got no traction and dropped out in July 1999, endorsing then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

For Kasich’s announcement on July 21, doors will open at 9:30 a.m. at The Ohio Union at Ohio State.

The announcement date puts Kasich a week behind the other Midwestern governor in the race, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who plans to announce the week of July 13.

The July launch gives Kasich a shot at raising his national profile enough to qualify for the first GOP debate, on Aug. 6 in his home state. But participation in the Cleveland debate will be based on national polling, and Kasich advisers admit that qualifying will be tough, even with his announcement bump.

Kasich, who graduated from Ohio State in 1974, can expect an excited crowd in the Buckeye capital. He’ll follow his kickoff rally with an announcement tour that includes Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan.

The GOP talent pool is getting shallow, with so many credible candidates vying for the nomination. But Kasich landed two of the best-known names in Republican politics:

His chief strategist will be John Weaver, mastermind of John McCain’s insurgent campaigns of 2000 and 2008. And the lead consultant for Kasich’s super PAC, New Day for America, will be ad maker Fred Davis, based in the Hollywood Hills, who worked on McCain ’08 and has had several viral hits. Both worked on Jon Huntsman’s presidential campaign in 2012.

Matt Carle, who ran Kasich’s successful reelection campaign, will play a role on the campaign or at the super PAC.

An adviser said Kasich will be positioned “in Jeb’s back right pocket” — with establishment appeal, but slightly more conservative.

Kasich has made his hunger for the job apparent in recent months, with a series of interviews, stops in D.C., and visits to early states.
In a May interview with Jonathan Karl on ABC’s “This Week,” Kasich said: “I’ve been very pleased with what I’ve found out on the ground in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan. … I hope people will help me, if they like my sort of unique voice in this whole thing, and we look at organization. … I [am] increasingly optimistic about all of this.”

Kasich called himself “the most experienced in the field, with being an executive running a big state like Ohio, dealing with problems like [shootings by police in] Cleveland. At the same time, being in Congress, balancing the budget — I was the chairman — and also serving on the defense committee for 18 years.”

Acknowledging he’s an underdog, Kasich said: “You know the way this system works. You know, you go to New Hampshire and you do well and you’re on a rocket ship.”

Asked about being the vice presidential nominee, Kasich replied: “Forget it. … Forget it. … Forget it, Jon. I don’t play for seconds.”
Jonathan Karl said with a laugh: “I’m going to save this tape.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/john-kasich-2016-presidential-bid-119517.html#ixzz3eTLUv5Pg

[Dos Equis]

Why is Ben Carson rising?
BY BYRON YORK
JUNE 29, 2015

DENVER — Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon who has never held or run for elective office, is currently fourth in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls — ahead of five governors, four senators, one CEO and one billionaire. Carson has been climbing in the polls since he announced his candidacy on May 4. On the day before the announcement, Carson was at 4.8 percent in the RCP average; now, he's at 9.4 percent.

The combination of Carson's rise and his unorthodox campaign style — Carson's short-on-specifics stump speech is like no other — has left some of his rivals baffled. "I just don't get it," one said in a private conversation recently. "I don't get it."

Much of the Republican presidential conversation is old versus new, which is shorthand for Jeb Bush versus any other candidate. Along with that conversation there is the senator versus governor debate, the Washington versus not-Washington debate, the populist versus establishment debate, and others. Carson stands apart from all of them.

Carson has scored points before audiences around the country by arguing that his lack of political experience is an asset, not a liability. "The professional pundits say, you can't do it because you're not a politician," he told a crowd at the Western Conservative Summit in Denver Saturday night. "I would say I can do it because I'm not a politician." A certain type of conservative crowd — usually ones who are fed up with Republicans — loves that line.

Carson makes the case that everyday life can prepare a person to be president. "Experience can actually come from a variety of different things," he said in Denver, "and I've had a lot of lifetime experiences that I think are very useful — experiences growing up in dire poverty, and experiencing every socio-economic level in our society. I think that's valuable experience, because it helps you see a lot of things."

Of course, not everyone grows up to be a world-renowned surgeon. But doing anything is better than being a politician, in Carson's view; as he tells it, political experience is a uniquely unqualifying experience for public office. "Ordinary people, citizens, can have all kinds of experiences," he explained. "For those who happen to have spent their lives pushing papers around and trying to get re-elected, to think that that is better life experience when it comes to solving problems, that they have the best experience, I think it's a suspension of intellectual activity, to believe something like that." More applause.

By the end of the Denver gathering, Carson came out on top of the straw poll.

Why do conservative audiences like him so much? The simplest answer is that Carson is a really appealing man. Another is that he speaks to the throw-'em-out strain among conservatives, the same kind of thinking that would be open to a third-party candidate. Yet another is that Carson's it's-really-very-simple commonsense approach to complex issues resonates with a significant segment of the party. And finally, as the only black candidate, Carson's race might have something to do with it; he might appeal to that part of the Republican mind that has been scarred by years of accusations of racism, and also to those who believe the GOP needs a minority candidate to win more minority voters.

Finally, Carson projects a serenity and faith that attracts a following. It's hard to overstate the degree to which he believes that God has guided him not just through his life but to this campaign. Speaking to him at the Western Conservative Summit, I noted that in his memoir, Gifted Hands, Carson wrote that he believes God gave him a special talent for surgery. Does he now also believe God gave him a special talent to be president of the United States?

"Well, I think the people will make that decision," Carson answered. "You know, one of the wonderful things about the system that we have is you have an opportunity to be out there with all of the, quote, political experts, and the people will be able to hear what I have to say and they'll be able to hear what they have to say. And they will be able to make the decision. If it were up to the political experts, of course not, I would have no chance. But it's up to the people. And our government was really designed for the people, not for a political class. And I think we'll find out what the people decide."

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/why-is-ben-carson-rising/article/2567210

[Dos Equis]

Fat Man is in it to win it.   

Christie announces 2016 White House bid, vows 'I mean what I say'
Published June 30, 2015
FoxNews.com

WASHINGTON –  New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie returned to his alma mater on Tuesday to formally announce his 2016 presidential bid, embracing his blunt-talking persona as he strives to stand out from the jam-packed field.

“I mean what I say and I say what I mean, and that’s what America needs right now,” Christie said, from a podium at Livingston High School, where he stood with his wife and children. 

At times, Christie, who delivered his remarks in front of a large American flag and without a teleprompter, sharply criticized both Republicans and Democrats.

“Both parties have failed our country,” he said.

Christie, a former U.S. attorney who is serving his second term as governor of the Garden State, is the 14th Republican to enter the 2016 race.

Christie spent much of his 20-minute speech reintroducing himself to a national audience that’s seen him fade from favor among the GOP faithful. Days earlier, he launched a website under the campaign slogan, "Telling It Like It Is."

Christie slammed the persistent bickering in Washington, saying “Compromise is now a dirty word,” and also took aim at President Obama's foreign policy record. He said Obama's "second mate, Hillary Clinton" should not be allowed to take charge after years of "weak and feckless foreign policy."

Christie made his announcement from the gymnasium at Livingston – the location of some of his very first political victories. Christie spent three years as president of his high school class there.

"If you were to poll and ask who would one day be governor, I think Chris would have overwhelmingly won," Harlan Coben, now a best-selling author who served as student council president when Christie was senior class president, told The Associated Press.

Once considered an early frontrunner, Christie and his camp hope to rebuild momentum as the race for the White House gets under way. The "Bridgegate" scandal set his national profile back, but his team is still looking for an opening among a diverse cast of GOP primary candidates.

Christie is one of four current governors to in the mix on the GOP side. He joins Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal, who announced his candidacy last week, as well as expected candidates Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Their announcements are expected in July.

Christie gained national attention after he took on public-sector unions in New Jersey. His long-running battle with the teachers' unions created a backlash against many of his state policies but helped him gain popularity on a national level with the party.

Born in 1962, Christie has often pulled from his working-class roots. His father paid his way through college by working at a Breyers ice cream plant, while his Sicilian mother “set the tone” at home, he has said.

Christie’s camp released a video Sunday titled, “Telling It Like It Is,” which drew on his interactions with his late mother, Sondra, and played up his signature brash persona, that he has quipped is “as slick as sandpaper.”

In 2009, Christie defeated Gov. John Corzine – New Jersey’s widely unpopular Democratic governor who was dogged by allegations of corruption. Christie was re-elected in 2013. That year, he was also elected that year as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, succeeding Jindal.

More recently, though, Christie has dealt with a lengthy criminal investigation over his staff’s involvement in a politically motivated bridge closure.

Christie has maintained he was not involved in the matter.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/06/30/christie-announces-2016-bid-for-white-house-becomes-14th-gop-hopeful/

[polychronopolous]

EXCLUSIVE — DR. BEN CARSON TELLS WASHINGTON AS GRASSROOTS FUNDRAISING GROWS: ‘HERE WE COME’



Dr. Ben Carson, the gifted neurosurgeon and political conservative who’s running for the Republican nomination for president, has a message for the political class in Washington, D.C., as he releases extra-impressive grassroots fundraising numbers at the end of this Federal Election Commission (FEC) quarter: “Here we come.”

“I am extremely gratified with the level of enthusiasm and support that our campaign has received, from all 50 states,” Carson said.

The response to our message, namely demanding a more responsive and accountable government, has been clear and unequivocal, as demonstrated in the number of people who have shown their financial support for our campaign – 209,940 donations from 151,060 individual donors. The message to me and my campaign is keep working. The message to the Washington political class is, “Here we come!”

The numbers, provided to Breitbart News by Carson campaign spokesman Doug Watts, are nothing short of incredible for a first-time political candidate’s effort. Since March 3, Carson has raised $10.5 million. Some $8.3 million of that is in the quarter that just wrapped Tuesday evening. Since March 3, he’s earned 209,940 separate donations to his presidential effort—and 151,060 unique donors. Contributions are pouring in from all 50 states and donors from California, Arizona, Texas and Florida are Carson’s largest donor base in terms of numbers of contributors and amount of money donated. Lots of this fundraising, Watts says, has been done online but much of it has also been done over the phone and via direct mail.

It remains to be seen what will happen with Carson’s campaign, but he’s definitely a force to reckoned with. He just won the straw poll at the Western Conservative Summit in Denver this weekend, and clearly enjoys support across the country.

In the recently released Quinnipiac poll, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s lead slipped and Carson is one of those gaining on him. In May, Walker had 21 percent but now only has 18 percent. Businessman Donald Trump and Carson tied for second place with 10 percent each. Carson’s number rose from 7 percent in May, meaning the three percent shaved off Walker’s lead went to Carson. In May’s poll, Trump wasn’t even included so his 10 percent is extraordinarily impressive.

[LurkerNoMore]

Rubio's slipping.  Of course this just shows fickle polls can be depending on the time and location they are conducted.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/marco-rubios-support-suddenly-crumbled-212000338.html

The CNN poll showed that Rubio's support has plunged to 6% among likely Republican primary voters. In May, he was leading the GOP pack with 14%.

This drop represents the largest shift among any Republican candidate. While most candidates remained statistically within the margin of error, Rubio's drop is the only significant movement up or down among candidates. He also lost ground in a theoretical head-to-head matchup with Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton — he now trails her by 17 points after coming within three in May.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), who has yet to officially enter the race, also dropped several percentage points to 6%, but he was within the poll's 5% margin of error.

Several factors may be behind Rubio's drop. For one, Rubio didn't grab many headlines during the week that the poll was taken like some of his opponents — including real-estate mogul Donald Trump, who was the biggest gainer in the poll. Michael Traugott, a political science professor at the University of Michigan, told Business Insider that Rubio's drop "just means he hasn't been generating much press coverage lately."

GOP strategist Liz Mair pointed out that Rubio's strong suit — personal-finance issues and foreign policy — took a back seat last week to topics like gay marriage, the Affordable Care Act, and the Charleston shooting.

"Probably for Rubio, it's better for people to focus on foreign policy," Mair told Business Insider on Wednesday.

Rubio might also be suffering from a mini-surge by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and Trump, who both announced their presidential campaigns just more than two weeks ago.

"Rubio and Walker have lost a little altitude as Jeb Bush has righted his ship. Not sure I believe the Rubio numbers, but Jeb is looking like the front runner once again — at least until Aug. 6," Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist at Potomac Research Group, told Business Insider, referencing the date of the first Republican primary debate.

In any event, as The Huffington Post notes, Rubio's overall popularity has remained steady for the last several months, indicating that voters' attitudes toward him haven't shifted too greatly.

[Dos Equis]

In any event, as The Huffington Post notes, Rubio's overall popularity has remained steady for the last several months, indicating that voters' attitudes toward him haven't shifted too greatly.

Sounds about right.

[Dos Equis]

Pretty good for someone with no political experience, but he'll have to raise a heck of a lot more.

July 01, 2015
Carson campaign raises $8.3M
By Mark Hensch

GOP presidential candidate Ben Carson has raised over $8.3 million in the last three months, according to The Associated Press.

Campaign spokesman Doug Watts said 151,000 separate donors contributed since Carson launched his exploratory committee in early March. That includes contributions through Tuesday.

Carson is the first Republican White House hopeful to release his fundraising totals this election cycle.

The retired surgeon is one of more than a dozen GOP contenders, comprising one of the most crowded presidential fields in recent memory.

Watts predicted Wednesday that no other campaign will “come even close to the number of engaged donors” Carson commands, AP reported.

His announcement follows Democrat Hillary Clinton’s record-breaking haul for the first quarter of a presidential bid earlier on Tuesday.

Clinton announced on Twitter that her campaign has received $45 million in donations from supporters.

She also retweeted a post from campaign chairman John Podesta, who said 91 percent of all donations were $100 or less.

“Thank you so much for being a part of this campaign,” Clinton told supporters on Twitter. “I’m grateful for all you’ve done and excited for what comes next.

“While the road ahead is tough, you need the best people by your side,” Clinton added. “That’s why I’m thankful for you. With warm regards, Hillary.”

Clinton’s first quarter scoop bests President Obama’s previous record of $42 million set during the first quarter of 2011 during his reelection campaign.

That figure was part of a larger $68 million haul, most of which was raised by the Democratic National Committee that election cycle.

Election law dictates that first quarter fundraising ends on June 30. Candidates then have 15 days to file their results.

Clinton announced her Oval Office bid on April 12, only 12 days into the fundraising window. That move helped her campaign staff seek contributions for most of the quarter.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/fundraising/246674-carson-campaign-raises-83m

[240 is Back]

Rubio's slipping.

The sort of voters that liked Rubio are moving to Trump.

You know the type... they want a 'fresh face' that they can relate to - Goodness knows jeb and huck and santorum do not.   Rubio is like a young JFK, if JFK lied about his parents persecution and had some lobbying shadiness under his belt.

Trump has stolen away the "i'm bored with the GOp establishment but don't have any true real feeling about the issue" vote from Rubio.  

[Dos Equis]

Scott Walker to Make 2016 Announcement July 13
Thursday, 02 Jul 2015

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker will announce his presidential campaign intentions on the afternoon of July 13 in suburban Milwaukee, a Walker aide who wasn't authorized to speak on the record said.

The two-term governor will make his announcement in Waukesha, just west of his home in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin. The date of the announcement was reported earlier Thursday by Politico.

Walker, 47, is also expected on Thursday to file his papers of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, the aide said.

If he formally enters the race as expected, he would be the 15th Republican to do so. The most recent public polling in Iowa shows him atop the field in the state that will host the first nomination voting in February, although his standing has slipped this year as others have officially joined the contest.

Walker had pledged not to enter the presidential race until the Wisconsin legislature completes its two-year budget bill. Lawmakers in Madison will meet next week to try to hammer out the final details, but it remains unclear whether they'll finish their work before July 13.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/walker-presidential-campaign-announcement/2015/07/02/id/653214/#ixzz3eksEWx3Z

[Dos Equis]

The 10 Republicans most likely to win the GOP’s 2016 nod
By Niall Stanage
07/06/15

With just one month to go before the first GOP presidential debate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has surfed a bounce from his official campaign launch to claim the top spot in The Hill’s rankings.

Bush placed second in our most recent rankings in May.

The leader in May, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), has drifted to third place as questions deepen over whether his undoubted strengths will translate into victories in early states.

Among the other big movers: Ben Carson has climbed three places to fourth, largely on the back of some surprisingly strong poll results, while Donald Trump, unranked in May, now demands inclusion. The businessman is at No. 8.

1. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (previously 2)

Bush has claimed a clear lead in polling both nationally and in New Hampshire. He runs 7 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival in CNN’s latest national poll and beats the field in New Hampshire by about 5 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average.

He’s also expected to have truckloads of cash, meaning he can sustain a long campaign.

That could help him on Super Tuesday, March 1, when 11 states are scheduled to vote. If the race is still competitive by March 15, Bush’s money edge will be augmented by home-court advantage when Florida votes, along with Illinois, Missouri and Oregon.

The bad news:  Despite his national strength, Bush is highly unlikely to win the Iowa caucuses, where he places sixth in the latest major poll, from Quinnipiac University. That ups the stakes for Bush in New Hampshire. If he fails to win the Granite State, he could be in trouble.

2. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (3)

Walker is the favorite in Iowa, where his 17.5 percent support in the RCP average sounds modest but is approximately double the support claimed by his nearest challenger.

An Iowa win would help Walker position himself as the main conservative challenger to Bush. If he locked in that status with an adequate performance in New Hampshire and a stronger one in more ideologically friendly South Carolina, other conservatives are likely to drop out. Walker would be perfectly placed to hoover up their support.

The bad news: Skeptics question whether Walker, the only top-tier contender not officially in the race, has the personal dynamism to deliver on his potential.

3. Sen. Marco Rubio (1)

Rubio has the potential to expand the Republican tent without unduly antagonizing the base.

The Florida senator also has greater crossover appeal to the different factions within the GOP than any other candidate. He was first elected with Tea Party backing; his hawkish foreign policy positions appeal to national-security conservatives; and his youth, Cuban heritage and charisma lead many in the GOP establishment to believe he would be the party’s strongest choice to take on Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

The bad news: Rubio is in fourth place in the RCP national polling average and faces a pressing question: Where, exactly, is he going to win?

In Iowa, Rubio is tied for fourth in the RCP average and seventh in the latest major poll. Unlike Bush, he cannot be confident of bouncing right back in New Hampshire, where he is currently running fifth.

If, as seems probable, he fails to win either contest, there is no guarantee South Carolina would prove more hospitable. Rubio may have a broad base, but it’s easy to see how he could find himself 0-3.

4. Ben Carson (7)

It would be hard to find a Beltway insider who believes Carson has a serious shot at becoming the GOP nominee. But he’s polling well ahead of expectations.

Carson is tied for second in the latest major poll in Iowa and third in the RCP national average.

The past two presidential cycles have thrown up Republican candidates whose chances were derided right up until they became serious challengers: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008 and former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) in 2012. Carson could become the 2016 equivalent.

The bad news: Carson is a poor fit for New Hampshire, which means that any momentum he would pick up from a strong performance in Iowa could quickly dissipate. He has never run for public office before, a fact that could give voters pause. And Carson’s lack of political experience could lead to serious gaffes.

5. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (unchanged)

There’s no denying that Huckabee is an outside bet to end up as the GOP’s standard-bearer. But, unlike several of his rivals, he at least has a plausible path to becoming a major player in the race: do well in the Iowa caucuses, which he won in 2008; minimize the importance of the more liberal New Hampshire; and come back strongly in South Carolina, where many Republican voters share the one-time preacher’s social conservatism.

If all of that goes according to plan, Huckabee could then look forward to March 1, nicknamed “the SEC primary” because Deep South states, including Alabama, Georgia and his native Arkansas, are set to vote as are Tennessee and Texas.

The bad news: Huckabee is not running as strongly as he needs to in Iowa. He is sixth in the RCP average in the state and trailed in eighth in the latest poll, from Quinnipiac.

That could point to a more fundamental problem with his candidacy: Are the fervent conservatives whom his success depends upon being drawn away by Walker and Carson?

Huckabee will only have a real shot if he becomes the clear conservative alternative to a more establishment-friendly front-runner — and it’s hard to see how he gets into that position.

6. Sen. Rand Paul (4)

Paul’s backers believed at the outset of the race that the Kentucky senator could expand the appeal of his father, former Rep. Ron Paul (Texas). The theory was based on a sense that the electorate had become more amenable to libertarian ideas and that the younger Paul is a less eccentric figure than his dad.

The bad news: There’s little evidence to support this theory so far. Paul has a decent level of support in both Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the polls, but he is a long-odds bet to win either contest. South Carolina, with a GOP electorate in which social conservatives and military families are well-represented, is an even worse fit.

7. Sen. Ted Cruz (6)

The rationale for a Cruz victory at the outset of his campaign was clear: The combative senator could claim the backing of Tea Party activists and would then augment this base by drawing significant support from foreign policy hawks and social conservatives.

The bad news: It hasn’t happened, at least so far. Cruz languishes in eighth place in the RCP national average and — more damaging to his overall hopes — fills the same spot in the Iowa average.

The “grassroots conservative” lane is a crowded one and, despite the high media profile he enjoys, Cruz is getting squeezed out by Walker, Carson and Huckabee.

8. Donald Trump (unranked)

Trump is clearly on the move in the polls, which earns him a place in these rankings. In three recent polls — one national, one in New Hampshire and one in Iowa — Trump has placed second, second and tied for second, respectively.

It is more likely than ever that he will earn a position in the first two televised GOP debates, which are capped at 10 candidates apiece.

Most Republicans don't think Trump will emerge as the GOP nominee, but he is well-placed to stick around for a long time.

The bad news:  Even for someone with Trump’s ego, there can be such a thing as bad publicity. Business partners, including NBC and Macy’s, have distanced themselves from him after he made derogatory comments about Mexican immigrants.

9. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (unchanged)

Christie’s hope is that people will warm to his campaigning style — encapsulated by his “telling it like it is” slogan — and be won over by his debating skills. Then, so the theory goes, the maverick-loving voters of New Hampshire will provide him with the kind of Lazarus-like resurrection enjoyed by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008. This boost of momentum will be great enough to propel Christie toward the front of the pack as the most electable Republican in a general election.

The bad news: This is a very, very long shot. Christie has been badly bruised by “Bridgegate,” and social conservatives had not been enthused about him even before that scandal erupted.

It’s not a sure thing that Christie will even make the debate stage — he currently sits in 10th place in the RCP national average. And even if he were to win in New Hampshire — an idea that looks fanciful for now — it’s not at all certain that he could build on that achievement in the more conservative states that follow.

10. Ohio Gov. John Kasich (unranked)

Kasich will likely be the final major figure to join the GOP field, with an announcement expected on July 21. His boosters believe he can carve out a niche as a governor of a large, important state with bipartisan appeal — in essence, a candidate with Christie’s upside and none of the downside.

The bad news: Getting in late to a crowded field is fraught with difficulty — especially if your national profile is modest at best. Kasich has some political strengths, but will voters care? He barely registers in the polls for now.

Dropping out of The Hill’s Top Ten since last time are former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businesswoman Carly Fiorina.

Other also-rans: Former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.), Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former New York Gov. George Pataki.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/246778-the-10-republicans-most-likely-to-win-the-gops-2016-nod

[Dos Equis]

Don't know anything about this guy.

Former Virginia Gov. Gilmore entering crowded GOP field
By Tom LoBianco, CNN
Wed July 8, 2015

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore speaks to guests at the Iowa Freedom Summit on January 24, 2015 in Des Moines, Iowa.

Washington (CNN)Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore will be the latest Republican to enter the ever-growing field of White House candidates.

Gilmore told the Richmond Times-Dispatch Tuesday that he will jump in. Gilmore was governor from 1998 to 2002, served as Republican National Committee chairman in 2001 and lost Virginia's 2008 U.S. Senate race to then-Gov. Mark Warner in a blowout.

The Times-Dispatch reports that Gilmore will formally announce his candidacy early next month. He told the paper that he doesn't believe other Republicans are addressing major national security concerns.

Gilmore adds to the list of former governors running, including former New York Gov. George Pataki, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley is seeking the Democratic nomination.

There are so far 14 official Republican presidential candidates, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Ohio Gov. John Kasich expected to announce their candidacies later this month.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/08/politics/jim-gilmore-enters-2016-race/index.html

[240 is Back]

Don't know anything about this guy.

there are a group of repubs.... they hate the lowbrow tea party base, they hate the RINOs and Jeb/christies too.
They half-attached themselves to someone like Jindal, bright but with no real positions they know of.

Once they learn about jindal, they'll need another 'unknown' to attach themselves to... along comes dudes like this Gilmore, not really known but hey, in a slow news week there will be a "just who is gilmore, and can he UPSET everyone" just for shits and giggles.

Repubs have no frontrunner, they're ashamed right now.  Jeb and Trump are #1 and #2... what the motherfck is wrong with that picture?  What, 15 people in the race and THAT is who they're choosing?

Insane.

[polychronopolous]

Donald Trump surges to first place in North Carolina



Donald Trump is leading the Republican field in North Carolina, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The billionaire businessman has the support of 16 percent of GOP primary voters in the Tar Heel State in the latest survey from left-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP).

The poll comes with Trump mired in controversy over his recent remarks on Hispanics and immigration from Mexico.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) and Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.) trail him in the PPP poll with 12 percent support each. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) is third, with 11 percent.
PPP found Trump has a 55 percent favorability rating with a 32 percent rating him unfavorably.

Trump is especially popular with “very conservative voters,” PPP found, with 66 percent of them seeing him favorably versus 24 percent who hold a negative view. He also claims 29 percent support among younger voters and 20 percent support with men.

Trump sparked controversy during his presidential campaign launch last month, when he said Mexico was "sending people who have a lot of problems" over the border to the U.S.

"They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists," he said. "And some, I assume, are good people."

Despite that controversy, Trump has done well in early GOP polls, placing second in a survey in Iowa and another in New Hampshire — both early voting states.

Wednesday's PPP poll also found retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) tied at 9 percent each, followed by Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) at 7 percent. Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) snagged 6 percent, while Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.) took 5 percent.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina received 4 percent, trailed by Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Gov. Bobby Jindal (La.) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.), who all tied at 1 percent support.

Gov. John Kasich (Ohio) and former Gov. George Pataki (N.Y.) finish out the field with less than 1 percent support each.

Hillary Clinton remains the top Democratic pick for North Carolina’s primary voters, PPP found.

The former secretary of State currently has 55 percent of voters’ support there.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is in second at 22 percent. Former Sen. Jim Webb (Va.) then takes 7 percent, while former Govs. Lincoln Chafee (R.I.) and Martin O’Malley (Md.) are tied at 4 percent.

PPP surveyed 529 registered primary voters from July 2-6 for its latest sampling. The poll has a 5.8-percentage-point margin of error. That total includes 288 GOP primary voters and 286 Democratic primary voters.

[Dos Equis]

GOP debate: Who is in, who is out
By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Thu July 9, 2015

Washington (CNN)Four weeks from Thursday night, a group of at least 10 Republican candidates for president will take the debate stage in Cleveland, Ohio, with polling playing a major role in determining which candidates out of the ever-expanding field get to be behind a podium -- and which will be watching from home.

Fox News, which is co-sponsoring the debate with Facebook, has said that those on the stage must "place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by FOX News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques."

That description, as pollsters will tell you, isn't quite as easy to interpret as it seems.

Taking it at its most literal, the most recent five polls include the CNN/ORC poll conducted June 26-28, the Fox News poll conducted June 21-23, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 14-18, the Monmouth University poll conducted June 11-14 and another Fox News poll conducted May 31-June 2. All of these are telephone polls conducted by live interviewers, dialing random samples of adults reached on both cellphones and landline telephones.

Although Fox News hasn't specified how they define a standard polling methodology, this almost certainly meets that standard.

If those five polls are included, using results among registered voters -- rather than adults where applicable -- and assuming the entire field meets Fox's other criteria for appearing on stage by filing with the Federal Election Commission and paying the appropriate filing fees, the 10 on stage would be: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, businessman Donald Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Left on the outside looking in are former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former CEO Carly Fiorina, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, who hasn't been tested in any national polling this cycle.



Looking at how these averages could vary depending on how Fox defines its criteria, the only candidate in that outside group who seems to stand a chance of getting inside is Santorum, and then only by tying for 10th.

If Monmouth University's polling is not considered major, then the average would roll in the CNN/ORC poll from May 29-31. That wouldn't change who winds up on the stage, though there is a bit of shifting in the order of finish.

One change that could have a greater impact would be dropping the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll due to the unconventional question wording used to gauge Republicans' preferences for the nomination. In their June survey, the pollsters asked those who said they would vote in the Republican primary if they could see themselves supporting each of 16 candidates.

Rather than repeating that list of 16 candidates in their horse race question, they followed those individual questions by asking, "If the next Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor: Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, or Ben Carson, or would you vote for one of the other candidates that were mentioned in the previous question?"

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/09/politics/gop-debate-top-ten-polling-fox/index.html

[240 is Back]

LOL @ anyone that trump believes on this day, Trump is only the 7th most popular republican in the race.

LOL @ GOP trying to use old polling data to keep Trump out of it.   7th?  Are you high?  Are you high???

Huck polling higher than Trump, huh?   What the F planet are you on?   lol

[polychronopolous]

Trump Leads Pack In Latest GOP National Poll



Real estate billionaire Donald Trump bested 15 other GOP candidates to lead the pack, thanks to his strong stance against illegal immigration, according to an Economist/YouGov poll.

Trump trounced runner-up former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: 15 percent of Republicans selected him as their first choice, and 12 percent as their second. Bush trailed him by four points, with 11 percent saying he’s their first choice, and only seven percent as their second.

A quarter of Republican voters picked him as their first or second choice for the GOP presidential nominee. The pollsters note that Trump’s blistering attack on illegal immigrants and the crimes they commit on U.S. soil has “struck a chord” with fed-up voters. Two thirds of Trump supporters back a Tea Party agenda and are more likely to identify as “very conservative” than other Republicans who chose GOP establishment figures such as South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham (one percent) or former New York Gov. George Pataki (nonexistent).

Forty-nine percent of Republicans view Trump favorably, while 43 percent view him unfavorably.

[240 is Back]

Trump Leads Pack In Latest GOP National Poll

FOX has him in 7th in their poll ranking for the debate.  Therefore once he slips to #2 in any poll to jeb, they can declare him #11 and keep him out of the debate

[polychronopolous]

FOX has him in 7th in their poll ranking for the debate.  Therefore once he slips to #2 in any poll to jeb, they can declare him #11 and keep him out of the debate

WTF? 

How is that even possible!?!?

I can understand maybe not being first place but 7th??

[polychronopolous]

That's a pretty telling stat right there ---> "Trump trounced runner-up former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: 15 percent of Republicans selected him as their first choice, and 12 percent as their second. Bush trailed him by four points, with 11 percent saying he’s their first choice, and only seven percent as their second."

Looks like The Don has had a helluva good week.