Nate Silver Predicts GOP Holding 50-51 Senate Seats After 2014 Election

[LurkerNoMore]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/out-of-touch-gop-rapidly_b_5650490.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

The Republican Leadership may be doing just fine with the Wall Street crowd and extremists who oppose birth control, but for the majority of ordinary Americans its actions over the last several weeks have rapidly begun to seal its fate as a minority party.

First, let's start with the fact that the Republican Party is -- at this very moment -- a distinctly minority party in American politics.

The Gallup poll reports that the number of Americans identifying as Republicans has fallen to its lowest level in the quarter century it has been tracking the number: 25 percent.

Republicans lost the last presidential popular election by almost five million votes.

The FEC reports that combining the total number of votes cast by Americans for president, House and Senate in 2012, Americans voted for the GOP 158,605,000 times and for the Democrats 176,167,000 times. In other words they cast over 17 million more Democratic votes than Republican votes in 2012.

And even though Republican gerrymandering allowed the party to maintain control of the House by a slim margin, 1.17 million more votes were cast for Democratic House candidates than for Republicans.

Right now, GOP hopes for victories do not rest on their ability to appeal democratically to the majority of voters. They hinge entirely on successful gerrymandering and voter suppression policies that reduce the turnout of ordinary Americans. That means their hopes for political success in the future rest on very, very thin ice. And -- amazingly -- they seem to be doing everything they can to make the ice that separates them from complete political marginality thinner and thinner.

[240 is Back]

honestly, the power of the executive order is so obvious now...

Repubs can win both houses... can they really stop obama? 

in 2010, it was all "Scott brown41, we can finally stop obama!" and voila, he and john roberts found a way to get obamacare's jizz all over our collective faces. 

Obama does what he wants.  Some can complain and try to take high moral ground, but at this point, it's been 6 years of Repubs whining to their base on FOX news, and even though they cleaned his clock in 2010... they weren't really able to STOP anything.

So will the Repubs owning the Senate change anything meaningful, or stand in obama's path, in any way?

[LurkerNoMore]

honestly, the power of the executive order is so obvious now...

Repubs can win both houses... can they really stop obama? 

in 2010, it was all "Scott brown41, we can finally stop obama!" and voila, he and john roberts found a way to get obamacare's jizz all over our collective faces. 

Obama does what he wants.  Some can complain and try to take high moral ground, but at this point, it's been 6 years of Repubs whining to their base on FOX news, and even though they cleaned his clock in 2010... they weren't really able to STOP anything.

So will the Repubs owning the Senate change anything meaningful, or stand in obama's path, in any way?

Taking the Senate isn't going to change anything.  Obama might not get anything else done, but it's only two years.      Duh!!!  The most radical pieces of his administration have already gone through.  GOP = day late, dollar short.

[Dos Equis]

CNN Poll: Mitch McConnell Has Narrow Lead on Democrat Grimes
Wednesday, 03 Sep 2014
By Greg Richter

Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has a 4 point lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in his re-election bid for his Kentucky Senate seat, according to a new CNN/ ORC International Poll.

The poll shows McConnell with 50 percent support to Grimes' 46 percent. The difference falls exactly within the poll's 4 point margin of error.

Kentucky is a rare instance where Democrats believe they have a chance at taking a Republican-held seat this year. It also would be symbolic for them to defeat McConnell, who is set to become majority leader if the GOP takes control of the Senate.

Vote Now: Do You Approve Or Disapprove of President Obama's Job Performance?

But the poll also showed President Barack Obama's approval rating in the state at 33 percent, attributable partly to his position against coal. Kentucky is a major coal-producing state.

That has forced Grimes to distance herself from Obama and run on a pro-coal platform.

The poll was conducted by telephone between Aug. 28 and Sept. 1, with a sampling of 11,037 adults, including 671 likely voters.

http://www.Newsmax.com/Politics/Mitch-McConnell-Grimes-Kentucky-poll/2014/09/03/id/592466/#ixzz3CNb0WuSL

[Dos Equis]

Fox News poll: GOP has advantage in upcoming midterm election
By Dana Blanton
Published September 11, 2014
FoxNews.com

American voters disagree with President Obama that the economy is in better shape today than in 2008. Most are unhappy with ObamaCare. And optimism about the future of the country is down. With only 54 days until Election Day, these sentiments are pretty well baked into the cake -- boosting Republican candidates in a new Fox News poll.

The poll, released Thursday, also shows that nearly as many people say their household income has gone down as say it has gone up during Obama’s presidency (36 percent gone down vs. 42 percent gone up).

CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS

By a 14 percentage-point margin, those in homes with annual income less than $50,000 are more likely to say their income has gone down. Those in higher-income households say, by a 23-point margin, their income has gone up.

More voters are optimistic (57 percent) than pessimistic (38 percent) about the future of the country. Yet that’s a sharp decline from the 40-point optimism edge in 2012 (66-26 percent).

Sentiment today looks a lot like four years ago, before the 2010 midterms, when voters were more optimistic by 27 points (61-34 percent). When Obama took office in January 2009, 77 percent felt optimistic about the country’s future and 20 percent pessimistic.

The president recently claimed that “by almost every measure” the nation’s economy and American workers are better off now than when he took office. Voters dismiss his boast as “mostly false” by a 58-36 percent margin. That includes 37 percent of Democrats who think it doesn’t ring true.

More than twice as many voters think the new health care law “went too far” (48 percent) as think it “didn’t go far enough” (21 percent). About a quarter thinks ObamaCare is “about right” (24 percent).

Men, women, those under age 45 and over age 45, voters from higher and lower income households -- all are more likely to say ObamaCare went too far.

Most voters who think the new health care law went too far plan to support the Republican candidate in their House district this fall, while most of those who think it didn’t go far enough or it’s about right plan to vote for the Democrat.

Overall, when asked who they would back if the Congressional election were today, 47 percent of likely voters say the Republican candidate in their district and 40 percent the Democrat. Recent Fox News polls of registered voters have shown a narrow Democratic advantage, although the lead bounced back and forth between the two parties for most of the spring and summer.

Almost all Republicans and Democrats plan to vote for their party’s candidate. Independents are twice as likely to say they would back the Republican over the Democrat, yet the largest number say they would vote for a third-party candidate or are still undecided.

In states with active U.S. Senate races, likely voters would back the Republican candidate in that race by a 48-39 percent margin. And when looking at the results in just the 14 Fox News battleground states, that GOP edge widens to 53-35 percent among likely voters.

Call it the ISIS effect: equal numbers of voters now say terrorism is the most important issue to their vote as say the economy: 41 percent say each will be “extremely” important in their decision. Four years ago, 57 percent said the economy would be “extremely” important, while 41 percent said terrorism (September 2010).

Today 36 percent say government spending and 35 percent say health care will be “extremely” important to their vote for Congress, followed by immigration (32 percent), foreign policy (29 percent) and abortion (23 percent).

Pollpourri

Most voters continue to think Congress stinks at its job: 78 percent disapprove of the job lawmakers are doing. Just 13 percent approve. Moreover, approval of Congress has been below 20 percent since August 2011.

Voters say Obama’s recent push to increase the minimum wage is more about trying to win votes in the midterm elections (48 percent) than about helping working people (40 percent).

Still, 52 percent favor increasing the minimum wage, while 26 percent oppose it and another 20 percent say there shouldn’t even be a minimum wage in the first place.

Eighty percent of Democrats think the federal government should increase the rate. That’s almost twice the number of independents (44 percent) and more than three times the number of Republicans who feel that way (26 percent).

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from September 7-9, 2014. The full poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. For the subgroup of 883 likely voters, the margin of sampling error is also plus or minus three points.

The Fox News battleground states in this poll were: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, South Dakota and West Virginia.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/11/fox-news-poll-gop-has-advantage-in-upcoming-midterm-election/?intcmp=latestnews

[Dos Equis]

Nate Silver: Odds of GOP Senate Takeover Significantly Down
Tuesday, 16 Sep 2014
By Melanie Batley

The Republican Party's chances of taking control of the Senate have decreased significantly as the fortunes of Democrats in key states have surged, says Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com.

According to the former New York Times statistician, Republican odds stand at 55 percent, a drop from 64 percent just two weeks ago. 

"We've never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a 'tossup.' A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close," Silver said on an article on his website.

Silver's detailed statistical model indicates that Democrats now have a stronger possibility of winning due to changes in the Senate races in Colorado and North Carolina which are currently giving the party an advantage when previously Republicans held the edge.

Silver categorizes the two states as "highly competitive purple states," among which are also Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire. All five seats are currently held by Democrats and, with the exception of New Hampshire, it has been in these areas where Democrats have gained ground.

He cited numerous recent polls that have shown a surge for North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan and Colorado Sen. Mark Udall.

"What's perplexing is that [the Democrat surge in purple states] has happened right as Democrats' position on the generic congressional ballot — probably the best indicator of the nation mood — has deteriorated," he said.

He added that unlike the most recent figures, average historical data from the generic ballot tended to directly correlate to performance of candidates in state-by-state Senate polls.

Silver said the influence of money in those races could be one explanation, citing massive financial advantages for the Democrats in North Carolina and Colorado, along with higher outside spending by Democratic-leaning super PACs.

"Whatever the reason, the GOP's path to a Senate majority is less robust than before."

http://www.Newsmax.com/Newsfront/nate-silver-odds-republicans-senate/2014/09/16/id/594983/#ixzz3E55qmDmt

[240 is Back]

Nate Silver: Odds of GOP Senate Takeover Significantly Down

But I thought bypassing the impeachment option would INCREASE the GOP's chances of taking over the Senate?

Oh no, Rush Limbaugh, please tell me what's going on, you said impeaching obama would help the Dems somehow...

[Dos Equis]

Fight for Senate Control Down to Five States
By Stuart Rothenberg
Sept. 23, 2014

With six weeks to go, the fight for control of the Senate is down to five states, four of them currently held by Democrats.

Republicans must win only two of those contests to guarantee the 51 seats they need to control the Senate for the last two years of Barack Obama’s presidency. And they need to win only one of the Democratic states if they hold the only GOP seat at serious risk.

While things could still change — and national polls continue to show an environment that may produce a substantial GOP wave in the House and Senate — the Senate battle has boiled down to two reliably red states and three swing states.

While you can find Democrats spinning a yarn about how their party could pull off an upset in a multi-candidate race in South Dakota, that state, plus West Virginia and Montana, look poised to flip to the GOP in November.

Two Southern Democrats, Arkansas’ Mark Pryor and Louisiana’s Mary L. Landrieu, have run aggressive races as they try to survive the Republican wave that has swept over their states during the past four years. But Arkansas Republican Rep. Tom Cotton has finally opened up a small but decisive lead in his race, a lead likely to grow in the coming weeks.

 Fight for Senate Control Down to Five States
Cassidy, seen here campaigning over the weekend, has a strong chance to unseat Landrieu in Louisiana. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The Louisiana contest will probably go to a December runoff, and while runoffs are unpredictable, the almost certain GOP alternative to Landrieu in that race, Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy, has the advantage.

If they win both races, Republicans need to net only one more seat to win Senate control, with the focus, at least right now, on Alaska, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and Kansas.

Mark Begich is widely credited with running the best Democratic race in the country, and he may be ahead of challenger Dan Sullivan by a couple of points. But Begich remains well under the 50 percent mark, and Alaska’s strongly Republican bent means the senator has no room for error.

Local observers are wondering whether a controversial TV spot aired by Begich’s campaign may have backfired, and the closer Election Day gets, the more difficult it may be for Begich to keep voters’ focus on the state rather than on Obama or the stakes for control of the Senate.

North Carolina is proving to be a major headache for the GOP. Not nearly as red as Alaska — Obama carried it narrowly in 2008 before losing it narrowly in 2012 — Republican challenger Thom Tillis appears to be trailing Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan by more than a couple of points.

Democrats have poured resources into this race, and by November they are likely to have out-spent Tillis, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and GOP-allied groups by $7 million.

Democratic attacks definitely hurt the challenger, particularly on education, and many Republicans are growing skeptical that Tillis can overtake the incumbent. At some point, the NRSC may have to decide whether to stay in the race or pull out. But for now, Hagan’s weakness, the state’s competitiveness and the president’s unpopularity keep this contest in play.

Colorado remains extremely competitive, and Democrats must be concerned their attacks on Gardner on cultural issues did not destroy his campaign. But Gardner’s positive personality and more moderate message, combined with a Udall fumble here and there, has clearly made this a key contest.

You don’t have to believe the recent Quinnipiac University Poll that showed the Republican nominee with a double-digit lead in the state’s gubernatorial race and Gardner ahead by 8 points (I certainly don’t) to believe Udall is in great danger.

Some observers seem to think Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley has grabbed the momentum in Iowa. But while Democrats obviously have stopped the bleeding in the Hawkeye State, the contest certainly looks like a tossup. That may be different from six weeks ago, when Republican Joni Ernst appeared to have the momentum, but it’s also very different than a year ago, when Democrats were oozing confidence in Braley.

The fifth decisive race looks to be Kansas, where Republican Sen. Pat Roberts appears to be trailing independent Greg Orman by anywhere from a couple of points to a half-dozen.

Roberts has not run a good race, and his lack of a residence in the state is a dumb mistake. But questions about Orman’s relationship with a jailed businessman could help Roberts alter the contest’s trajectory. More importantly, given the state’s strong GOP bent and Obama’s unpopularity, all Roberts must do is nationalize the Senate race. That shouldn’t be impossible.

Still, if Orman wins (and caucuses with Democrats, as almost everyone seems to expect), that result in itself could cause Republicans to fall short in their bid to win back the Senate.

There are other contests, of course.

Two Democratic women hoping to pick off GOP seats, Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky and Michelle Nunn in Georgia, look to be in roughly the same place. Neither of those contests is over now, but both Democrats continue to face uphill fights.

In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has opened up a small but clear lead over Grimes, and the state’s strongly anti-Obama bent makes things harder for her with so little time left.

Georgia Republican David Perdue has a small lead over Nunn, and unlike McConnell, Perdue has never been tested, so he could make a mistake in the final furious weeks of the campaign. But he will win if he is error-free.

New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has seen her advantage shrink but continues to hold a narrow lead over challenger Scott P. Brown. The former Massachusetts senator still needs a big Republican wave to be swept to victory. Michigan GOP nominee Terri Lynn Land looks to be in even worse shape.

Republican nominees in Minnesota, Oregon and Virginia probably need divine intervention to have any chance of winning.

My ratings continue to reflect Republican Senate gains most likely in the five to eight seat range, with the eventual outcomes in the five most crucial contests likely to determine Senate control in 2015.

http://www3.blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/senate-races-2014-five-states/

[Dos Equis]

Somebody let the New York Times know the Republican Party is dead. 

"The Senate?

According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 67% chance of gaining a majority."

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

[Dos Equis]

As Iowa Goes, So Goes Senate Control
BY CHUCK TODD, MARK MURRAY AND CARRIE DANN

Our newest round of NBC/Marist polls makes one thing abundantly clear: It’s increasingly likely that the uber-competitive Senate race in Iowa will determine control of the U.S. Senate. Why? Needing to pick up a net of six Senate seats, Republicans are now favored to win five of them (Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Arkansas, and Louisiana). Meanwhile, Democrats have the narrow edge in North Carolina (our NBC/Marist poll has Sen. Kay Hagan ahead by four points among likely voters), and Alaska is considered a jump ball, especially given the uncertain polling in that state. But if the new Senate math is that Republicans need to find seven Democrat seats -- with Greg Orman leading Pat Roberts in Kansas by 10 points in our new poll, and with no one certain with whom Orman will caucus -- then Republicans get to seven by winning Iowa and Alaska. (You can throw Colorado into this mix, too, but our belief is that if Democrats are going to win in Iowa, they’re probably going to win Colorado.) Bottom line: If you tell us who wins Iowa come Election Night, we’ll have a VERY GOOD idea of which party is going to win the Senate, even after the runoffs in December and January.

Ernst has the enthusiasm edge in neck-and-neck Iowa

So what does our NBC/Marist Iowa poll show? Republican Joni Ernst has a two-point advantage over Democrat Bruce Braley among likely voters, 46%-44%, which is within the survey’s margin of error. But as one of put it over the weekend, Ernst has the enthusiasm advantage. More than six in 10 Ernst supporters said they chose her because they actively support her candidacy, while 34% said their backing of Ernst was a protest against Braley. But those numbers were flipped for the Democratic candidate. About six in 10 Braley backers said their vote was mostly due to opposition to Ernst. And 62% of Ernst supporters were firm in their decision between the candidates, compared to 51% for Braley. “It’s all much more about Ernst than it is about Braley,” said Marist pollster Lee Miringoff. These numbers also are an indication of just how negative the race has become. Braley and the Dem Super PACs are almost entirely anti-Ernst now.

. . . .

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/iowa-goes-so-goes-senate-control-n219211

[Dos Equis]

Republicans Maintain Edge in Senate Races, Poll Finds
OCT. 5, 2014
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn

The fight for control of the Senate is stable and tight, with Republicans maintaining the inside track to a majority in the latest round of data from the New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online panel of more than 100,000 respondents.

The Republicans lead by at least four percentage points in enough races to finish with 50 seats — just one short of the 51 seats they need to overcome Joe Biden’s tiebreaking vote and take the Senate. The Republicans’ likely gains include six seats currently held by the Democrats: in South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska. If those leads hold up, Republicans have four opportunities to capture the 51st seat they need in Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Kansas.

Nonetheless, the data suggests that the Democrats retain a clear, if difficult, path to victory. Perhaps most notable, the data offers reason to question the conventional wisdom that Republicans have recently made substantial gains in Colorado and Iowa.

The Democrats maintain a lead of at least four points in only enough races to hold 46 seats, but they hold a nominal edge in three more states: North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa. If the Democrats sweep all three — an outcome by no means assured with such tenuous leads — Senate control could be decided by Kansas, where the Republican senator Pat Roberts is tied with the independent candidate Greg Orman. If Mr. Orman won and caucused with the Democrats, then they would hold the Senate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/06/upshot/republicans-maintain-edge-in-senate-races-poll-finds.html?ref=politics&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

[Dos Equis]

Senate math seems impossible to some Democrats
By Jake Tapper, Chief Washington Correspondent
Thu October 9, 2014

Washington (CNN) -- Four weeks away from the 2014 midterm elections and even some Democratic operatives struggle to imagine a scenario where they retain control of the U.S. Senate. The terrain and current momentum seem all but overwhelming and against them.

A new CNN/ORC poll out Thursday morning suggests a Republican lead over a Democratic incumbent, this time in Alaska, and does nothing to calm Democrats' nerves.

"If you put a gun to my head, I guess I'd say that we're going to lose the Senate," one Democratic consultant told me in a moment of anonymous candor.
It's not even so much that President Obama is an Ancient Mariner-esque Albatross around their necks, though he is.
 
"I love the guy and I don't think there's anything he could do to fix it," the Democratic operative says, "but he's a real drag. But the bigger drag is the economy overall -- even though the economy is getting better, people aren't feeling it because wages are stagnant."
 
The other issue is that many of the Democrats defending their seats in GOP-leaning states had a fresh new Obama in 2008 helping to sweep them into office -- and often then, just barely. The class of 2008 were a bunch of Obama babies -- and now that's working against them.

If you put a gun to my head, I guess I'd say that we're going to lose the Senate
Democratic consultant

It's hard to explain to youngsters, but in 2008 then-Sen. Obama won Indiana and North Carolina and almost even won Montana and Missouri. Millions of Americans turned out to vote for him and in doing so in red states boosted Democrats like Sen. Mark Begich in Alaska.

Begich only beat then-Sen. Ted Stevens, 47.9% to 46.7% six years ago. Begich has hovered in the low 40s in recent polling; he trails his GOP opponent Dan Sullivan by six percentage points among likely voters in the CNN / ORC poll out Thursday morning.

Senate math is hard for Democrats

The basic math, for those of you not as fixated as the rest of us, is the following: The GOP needs to win at least six seats (though the number may end up being seven given the weirdness in Kansas -- more on that later.)

Republicans start off basically half way there. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota -- where three incumbent Democrats have said farewell -- are considered easy GOP pickups, with the GOP candidates ahead in polls by double digits.

That leaves seven competitive Senate races where Democrats are playing defense: solid red states Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana; and blue-ish Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and purple-ish North Carolina. Democrats are feeling cautiously bullish about exactly two of these races, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-NH, and Sen. Kay Hagan, D-NC.

Hagan is instructive in this way, she currently polls at 44% against her GOP opponent Thom Tillis, with 40%. As Obama squeaked in a 49.9%-49.5% victory against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., for North Carolina in 2008, Hagan defeated then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-NC, 52.7% to 44.2%, and North Carolina elected a Democratic governor and handed Democrats victories in eight out of 13 House races.

Four years later, North Carolinians opted for Mitt Romney, a GOP governor, and Democrats were down to four out of 13 U.S. House seats. Hagan could certainly pull out a win this November, but it won't be because she's riding a wave -- it will be because she successfully fought against it.

Here is the obligatory "to be sure" paragraph: each race is its own individual microcosm, incumbents have advantages challengers do not, four weeks is a lifetime in politics, Dewey Defeats Truman, insert cliché here. The Senate GOP Leader, Mitch McConnell, has a competitive race in Kentucky , though I know few Democrats who think he won't eke it out at the end of the day. And Kansas is a weird one, with the Democratic candidate having withdrawn, and Republican Sen. Pat Roberts facing an independent challenger who hasn't said with which party he'll caucus. Democrats are hoping if the final vote comes down to Independent Greg Orman, he'll remember that Democrats cleared the field for him. A CNN/ORC poll out Wednesday showed the race in a virtual tie with Roberts just one percentage point ahead.

The Democratic operative noted that his party was benefiting from some GOP struggles, namely the Republican party's inability to raise as much money as it had wanted to, infighting among GOP Super-PACs, and general infighting among conservatives."

But midterm elections are generally more difficult for the party that holds the White House. And opposition to Washington appears to be a motivating factor for a lot of voters.

"A lot of these races are tight right now, but this isn't the sort of environment where late-deciding voters are going to break for Democrats," the Democratic consultant said, adding that with Democrats in tight races but under 50% right now, it's tough to imagine all of them breaking in favor of the party that holds the White House.

Those Democrats include the ones fighting for their jobs in all seven of these toss-ups. Remember that the GOP only need win three of these and the most recent polling, which could clearly change between now and election day, suggests extremely close margins or a Republican advantage in all of them:

· Alaska (Republican up 50-44 in CNN / ORC poll)
· Arkansas (Republican up 45-41 in CBS / NYT / YouGov poll)
· Louisiana (Republican up 47-41 in CBS / NYT YouGov poll)
· Colorado (Democrat up 48-45 in CBS / NYT / YouGov poll)
· Iowa (42-42 draw in Loras College poll)
· New Hampshire (Democrat up 48-41 in CBS / NYT / YouGov poll)
· North Carolina (Democrat up 47-45 in USA Today / Suffolk poll)

"It's going to be bad," the consultant said. "Not 2010 bad, but bad." Even hapless House GOP candidates running against popular incumbents are proving competitive, the consultant reports. "You can see why Eric Cantor went down -- people are just so anti-Washington, and that's particularly a problem with Democrats because of ties" to the president. "People feel hopeless and think that Washington isn't doing anything."

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/09/politics/senate-democrats-math-control/index.html?hpt=po_c1

[Dos Equis]

WSJ: Midterms May Bring a GOP 'Wave' of Victories
Tuesday, 21 Oct 2014
By Melanie Batley

Most pundits have written off predictions that the midterms would be a "wave election" for Republicans, but The Wall Street Journal says there is evidence to suggest it could turn out to be one after all.
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The Journal points to its most recent poll that shows that those most interested in the election favor the Republicans, while a greater number of Republicans identify themselves as likely voters compared to Democrats.

"People turn out to vote for two reasons: They care, or they are organized to go to the polls," the Journal said. "The challenge for Democrats was to make their voters care and to recognize the stakes. That has not happened so far."

The Journal highlighted evidence it found about voters' feelings toward the election. According to the research, Republicans, by and large, are charged up and care about the election while Democrats are fearful and indifferent.
Latest: Do You Support a Travel Ban on West Africa Nations? Vote Here.

"This clearly will have an effect on turnout," the Journal said. "Democrats have failed so far to provide the reason their voters should care."

One Republican strategist predicted this week that the Republicans will have a "tidal wave" because Democratic candidates, in comparison, are strapped with having to defend unpopular policies.

"They have the burden of defending these bad policies; we don't have to. We don't have to rise as much because we don't have any bad policies in place ... What's happening is you've got a GOP tidal wave," Noelle Nikpour told Newsmax TV.

Meanwhile, the Journal reported Monday that Democrats are beginning to shift resources into long-shot races as the prospects of some of their vulnerable incumbents continue to decline.

With just two weeks left until the election, the party is pouring money into Georgia, South Dakota and Iowa, all of which have candidates polling very closely.

http://www.Newsmax.com/Newsfront/midterms-GOP-Senate-races-wave-election/2014/10/21/id/602068/#ixzz3GnHh1KnE

[Dos Equis]

State by Key Race State, Polls Give GOP Odds of Winning Senate
Monday, 27 Oct 2014
By Melanie Batley

With just eight days left until the midterm elections, two major polls released Sunday indicate that Republicans are holding the advantage in key Senate races across the country, putting them on par to take control of the upper chamber next Tuesday.

Numerous races, however, remain statistically tied as candidates enter their final week of campaigning, according to the polls.

The NBC News/ Marist Poll surveyed all of the major battleground races. It was conducted Oct. 19-23 of 540 likely voters.  The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov survey polled 98,411 voters from Oct.16-23.
 
Republicans currently have a slight lead in three Democratic seats: Arkansas, Colorado and Iowa. In North Carolina, the candidates are in a dead heat. But in Kansas, Republicans are in danger of losing the seat. Observers are also keeping a close eye on Georgia, where polling figures have been flip-flopping.
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"Senate contests are coming down to the wire," said pollster Barbara Carvalho of Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion, according to NBC News. "In a reversal from 2012, when there were multiple paths for [President Barack] Obama, now the Democrats are struggling to protect their firewall in Iowa, North Carolina and Colorado."

Newsmax takes a look at the polling results for each of the major races below.

Arkansas

The NBC News/ Marist poll shows that GOP Rep. Tom Cotton has a two-point lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor. Forty-five percent of likely voters say they are supporting Cotton compared to 43 percent who are backing Pryor. Another 7 percent continue to be undecided.

The NYT/CBS News/YouGov survey gives Cotton an even larger lead of five points, with 47 percent supporting Cotton compared to 42 percent for Pryor.

Cotton was leading Pryor by eight points in a poll out in the middle of October.

Pryor is suffering from low favorability ratings, with 41 percent viewing him favorably compared to 49 percent who view him unfavorably in the NBC News/ Marist poll. His support could be lagging due to the effect of President Obama's low job approval rating in the state of just 34 percent among likely voters.

Colorado

GOP Rep. Cory Gardner and Democratic Sen. Mark Udall are within one point of each other in the NBC News/Marist poll at 46 percent for Gardner and 45 percent for Udall. Five percent of likely voters continue to be undecided.

In the NYT/CBS News/YouGov survey, Udall has a one-point lead over Gardner at 47 percent compared to 46 percent. Four percent of voters in the survey are undecided.

Every other poll in October has had Gardner in the lead by at least two points.  In September's NBC/Marist poll, however, Udall was ahead by six points at 48 percent to 42 percent.
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"To seal up the potential crack in the Democratic firewall for the U.S. Senate, Udall needs a big ground game," said Lee Miringoff, director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "He trails among those who have already voted by 12 points."

Iowa

Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst has a three-point lead over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the NBC News/ Marist poll. Ernst has 49 percent support compared to 46 percent for Braley. Just 5 percent of likely voters either prefer another candidate or remain undecided.

The results are identical in the NYT/CBS News/YouGov survey.

"The campaigns have taken a toll on both senate candidates who have unusually high negatives for non-incumbents," said Miringoff. "The GOP is chomping at the bit over the prospect of picking up a Senate seat the Democrats have held for 30 years in a state President Obama carried twice."

Since the beginning of October, Ernst has had a lead by at least one point in every poll.

Kansas

Republicans are bracing themselves for the possible defeat of incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts, though he has managed to close a double-digit gap with his opponent, independent Greg Orman.

In the NBC News/Marist poll, Orman leads by one point at 45 percent to 44 percent. Earlier this month he had a 10-point lead in the poll.

"There's nothing like the possibility of a U.S. Senator from Kansas caucusing with the Democrats to make some voters rethink their choice for Senate," said Miringoff. "Orman's initial double-digit lead over Roberts has evaporated, and the contest is now a tossup."
Special: Does Obama Belong to This Secret Society? (Shocking)

The NYT/CBS News/YouGov survey puts Roberts in the lead at 42 percent compared to 38 percent for Orman among likely voters.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan is tied with GOP challenger Thom Tillis at 43 percent in the NBC News/Marist poll. Earlier this month, Hagan had a four-point lead.

The NYT/CBS News/YouGov poll has Hagan ahead with 44 percent support compared to 41 percent for Tillis.

"Up until this point, incumbent Hagan has been considered the strongest Democrat among the so-called Democratic firewall states in this election cycle," said Miringoff. "Now, this is a contest that could go either way, and the outcome may determine control of the Senate."

Georgia

The NBC News/Marist poll did not test the Georgia Senate race, but the NYT/CBS News/YouGov survey found that Republican David Perdue had a three-point lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn at 47 percent compared to 44 percent.

Last week, however, several polls put Nunn in the lead, albeit within the polls' margins of error.

http://www.Newsmax.com/Newsfront/midterms-Senate-GOP-polls/2014/10/27/id/603349/#ixzz3HNzmbOqf

[Dos Equis]

They have nothing to worry about.  The Republican Party is dead.

House Dems fret debilitating losses
By ALEX ISENSTADT | 10/28/14 5:06 AM EDT Updated: 10/28/14

The political environment continues to deteriorate for House Democrats ahead of a midterm election that’s certain to diminish their ranks.

With President Barack Obama’s unpopularity hindering their candidates and Republican cash flooding into races across the country, Democrats are increasingly worried that the election will push them deep into the minority and diminish their hopes of winning back the majority in 2016 or beyond.

Looking to contain the damage, Democrats are pumping money into liberal congressional districts that were long thought to be safely in their column. Over the last several days, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has directed resources to maintain seats in Hawaii and Nevada, both of which broke sharply for the president in 2012 — an indication of just how much the terrain has shifted against the party over the past two years.

(POLITICO's polling center)

Other unexpected races are suddenly in play. Some Democrats, for example, have begun to worry about the prospects of California Rep. Lois Capps, an eight-term congresswoman who is typically a lock for reelection but who now finds herself in a competitive race against Republican Chris Mitchum, a perennial candidate and the son of the late actor Robert Mitchum. In a sign of how seriously national Democrats are taking the threat, the DCCC is making a last-minute purchase of $99,000 worth of radio advertising in the Santa Barbara area to boost Capps, according to a committee aide.

Operatives from both parties expect Republicans to net five to 10 seats, which would give them some cushion heading into what’s expected to be a much more challenging 2016. Some Republicans, trying to tamp down rising expectations of even bigger gains, point out that a recently-redistricted congressional map has dramatically narrowed the playing field of competitive districts and limited potential pick-ups.

They also caution that they have yet to put away Democrats in many races that remain close.

Still, as the election heads into the final week, it’s clear that the landscape is tilting against Democrats. Of the 30 House races seen as most likely to change hands, 23 are held by Democrats.

(Full 2014 election results)

Capps isn’t the only incumbent Democratic officials are scrambling at the last minute to defend. DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) recently coordinated a fundraising event for Rep. Dave Loebsack, a fourth-term Iowa incumbent who has recently come under barrage from GOP groups, and reached out to donors on his behalf.

On Tuesday afternoon, Israel and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will hold a hastily-planned conference call for members to provide them with an update on the political terrain and to press them to contribute to the party’s coffers.

“There’s no question it’s a tough climate for Democrats right now but it certainly doesn’t come as a surprise,” said Emily Bittner, a DCCC spokeswoman. “Heading into the final week of the election every single Democratic incumbent is still competitive, which is drastically different from the situation in 2010.”

Party operatives say Obama is weighting down House candidates across the country. In the districts of 24 of the 30 most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, more voters say they view the president unfavorably than favorably, according to polling data conducted over the last month for party strategists and provided to POLITICO. In 10 of those 24 races, Democratic lawmakers have recently lost ground along with the president.

(POLITICO's 2014 race ratings)

The effect is particularly acute in culturally conservative bastions like West Virginia and downstate Illinois, where Democratic strategists say Reps. Nick Rahall and Bill Enyart are watching their reelection hopes fade due in large measure to Obama’s diminished standing. Republicans have tethered both incumbents to the president: One new TV ad against Enyart imagines him and Obama together on posters made famous during the president’s 2008 campaign.

“Make no mistake,” the commercial says. “The Obama-Enyart agenda is devastating to our families and bankrupting southern Illinois.”

Other House Democrats have been encumbered by subpar performances of their party’s statewide candidates. Leading that list is Iowa Senate hopeful Bruce Braley, who party operatives say is dragging down three of their congressional contenders in the state.

Money is another worry. Republican groups have poured cash into House races in the final weeks, erasing a once formidable Democratic financial advantage. Since July 1, GOP outfits have spent $99.4 million, while Democrats have invested $81.9 million, according to campaign filings.

In many instances, Republicans are spending money to put races in play that had long been considered safe for Democrats. American Action Network, a national group with ties to House Speaker John Boehner, has begun airing TV commercials in blue districts in Hawaii and eastern Iowa.

The maneuvering has prompted Democratic groups to yank money from districts they’re trying to seize from Republicans in order to protect seats they already control. Over the past several weeks, the DCCC has pulled funds from top recruits in Colorado and Virginia and begun running TV ads in two eastern Iowa districts, both of which Obama won in 2012.

On Monday, House Speaker John Boehner visited the Iowa districts to campaign for GOP hopefuls Rod Blum, a software company owner seeking the seat Braley is vacating to run for Senate, and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, an opthamologist waging a campaign for the seat Loebsack occupies. A poll released on Monday showed Blum climbing to a narrow 43 percent to 42 percent lead over his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Pat Murphy.

“All year,” said Cory Fritz, a Boehner spokesman, “the speaker has been emphasizing the importance of making the most of every opportunity.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/house-dems-fret-debilitating-losses-112248.html#ixzz3HStNOB6a

[Dos Equis]

Good article by Silver.  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-2014-a-republican-wave/

[Dos Equis]

Silver is pretty darn good.  I'll be following his predictions heading into 2016.