Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Griffith]

Goldman Sachs just disclosed owning $475 million in Ethereum through BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs—an 1800% increase from $25 million in November 2024.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/goldman-sachs-increase-ether-bitcoin-etf-holdings-q4-2024

[Mayday]

I am curious, where are you getting your 400K fee number? Can you post a source? I just checked Messari and ETH's fees on Jan 19, 2025 were close to $16 million for the day! And Feb 3, 2025 close to $13 million. Most days are over $1 million.

Ethereum's TVL dwarfs the other chains at 52.94%. The dominance is the same as it was for parts of 2022. Bitcoin's is only 6.31% and Solana 8.81%.

My mistake on that one. I read something incorrectly and it was layer 2 fees were 5M on 400k costs. My bad.

As for targets, I said at 74k I wouldn’t do it again given I only copped grief. Even posted I bought after. I even posted my correlation levels I used from years ago and it nailed the moves. My last event window nailed it. This one also nailing it with tariffs and govt abolishment. Yet 98% of people can’t be helped no matter what, they get stuck on something and divert to their own storyline. Happens to me aswell sometimes. Maybe it’s just a human thing? A matrix thing?

GiB has nailed a fair few things. Nobody gives him credit either. I play a good devils advocate, whether he realises that I don’t know but I have a lot of respect and it will be admiration worthy if he cracks 50M.

[Griffith]

Trump-Backed World Liberty Financial Introduces ‘Macro Strategy’ Token Reserve

''Our strategic token reserve designed to bolster leading projects like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies that are at the forefront of reshaping global finance.''

''In alignment with our mission to bridge traditional finance and decentralized finance, we are actively engaging with esteemed financial institutions to contribute tokenized assets to our reserve,'' WLFI stated.

https://beincrypto.com/world-liberty-financial-macro-strategy-token-reserve/


Probably explains the MicroStrategy name change to 'Strategy B' 

[Griffith]

Tether Chooses Ethereum L2 Arbitrum for Cross-Chain USDT Infrastructure

Tether has picked Layer 2 Ethereum protocol Arbitrum to provide the infrastructure for its new cross-chain initiative, Legacy Mesh.

The news follows Tether’s launch of a new token, dubbed USDT0, in mid-January to facilitate smoother cross-chain transfers of USDT outside of blockchains that already support it. The aim was to do it without needing to use techniques like wrapping tokens or blockchain bridges.

USDT0 is pegged one-to-one with Tether’s flagship stablecoin, USDT. It's currently the world’s largest stablecoin with a market cap of $141 billion according to CoinGecko. It runs on LayerZero’s Omnichain Fungible Token (OFT) standard, which has been used by other stablecoins such as PayPal’s USD stablecoin, PYUSD.

The Arbitrum blockchain will act as a “hub chain,” connecting the USDT and USDT0 networks. Through it, USDT deployments on Arbitrum, Ethereum, Tron, Ton, Ink, and Berachain will link back to a unified USDT0 network.


https://decrypt.co/305633/tether-ethereum-l2-arbitrum-usdt-infrastructure

[obsidian]

Trump-Backed World Liberty Financial Introduces ‘Macro Strategy’ Token Reserve

''Our strategic token reserve designed to bolster leading projects like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies that are at the forefront of reshaping global finance.''

''In alignment with our mission to bridge traditional finance and decentralized finance, we are actively engaging with esteemed financial institutions to contribute tokenized assets to our reserve,'' WLFI stated.

https://beincrypto.com/world-liberty-financial-macro-strategy-token-reserve/


Probably explains the MicroStrategy name change to 'Strategy B' 

Interesting. I think MicroStrategy rebranding as "Strategy B" was a good move. It's shorter and more straightforward. It's similar to how the Napster guy (Sean Parker) told Zuckerberg to drop "The" from Facebook. No brainer.

[obsidian]

My mistake on that one. I read something incorrectly and it was layer 2 fees were 5M on 400k costs. My bad.

As for targets, I said at 74k I wouldn’t do it again given I only copped grief. Even posted I bought after. I even posted my correlation levels I used from years ago and it nailed the moves. My last event window nailed it. This one also nailing it with tariffs and govt abolishment. Yet 98% of people can’t be helped no matter what, they get stuck on something and divert to their own storyline. Happens to me aswell sometimes. Maybe it’s just a human thing? A matrix thing?

GiB has nailed a fair few things. Nobody gives him credit either. I play a good devils advocate, whether he realises that I don’t know but I have a lot of respect and it will be admiration worthy if he cracks 50M.

Yes, Gib deserves credit for being right with BTC so far. My take is this story is far from over between ETH and BTC. It is a marathon and won't be settled for a few years or even decades.

You've also got some things right. I don't have a financial background and live in the engineering and creator world. But I do find the crypto space fascinating and am learning shit daily about it all.

[Griffith]

Companies building on Ethereum:

[obsidian]

Companies building on Ethereum:

I was just going to post that - you beat me to it - lol!

Ethereum’s Adoption Is Deeper Than We Think And Criminally Under-estimated
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/1iptemz/ethereums_adoption_is_deeper_than_we_think_and/

[Griffith]

BlackRock Acquires $12 Million Worth of Ethereum

On February 14, 2025, BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset management firms, made a significant purchase of $12 million worth of Ethereum (ETH).

https://blockchain.news/flashnews/blackrock-acquires-12-million-worth-of-ethereum

[obsidian]

Perhaps in the future all BTC will be tokenized on Ethereum - to solve the economic security dilemma of Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin can be tokenized on the Ethereum blockchain as ERC-20 tokens. These tokens allow users to make transactions on the Ethereum network denominated in bitcoin. Wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) is an example of a tokenized Bitcoin on Ethereum

Tokenized Bitcoin on Ethereum Explained

Explain Like I'm Five (ELI5)

Tokenized Bitcoin is a way to use bitcoin on other blockchains.

But wait, isn’t Bitcoin great already? Indeed it is! It has a solid use case, and it already acts as a kind of public good. At the same time, its purposely limited features leave little room for further innovation.

What else could we do with Bitcoin? Some Bitcoiners say we shouldn’t do anything in particular, and that’s reasonable. Then again, others believe we should find ways to use Bitcoin on other blockchains. And this is where we arrive at tokenized BTC on Ethereum.

https://academy.binance.com/en/articles/tokenized-bitcoin-on-ethereum-explained/

[Griffith]

NYSE and CBOE seeking approval for Ethereum ETF Staking.

Applications from Greyscale and 21Shares.

Grayscale said that staking would improve its spot Ether ETFs’ creation and redemption process, efficiency, and provide more significant benefits to investors. According to crypto exchange Coinbase, the estimated staking reward rate for Ether is 2.06%.

The news follows Consensys founder Joe Lubin’s recent prediction that regulators will soon allow Ethereum ETFs to engage in staking. Consensys is among the key players in the Ethereum ecosystem, founded by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin.

During a recent interview, Lubin said that Consensys has “been in discussions with the ETF providers, and they’re already working hard on [staking implementation], so they expect that to be greenlit reasonably soon.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-spot-ether-etf-staking-proposal-united-states-nyse

https://readwrite.com/cboe-seeks-sec-approval-for-staking-in-21shares-ethereum-etfs/

[obsidian]

Soylana catching some heat! Chain of the video gamers and kids 8-25. The Soylana House is taking all the fees and wrecking the meme traders.

Always found it suspicious that a scammer like SBF would be balls deep in Soylana.

https://u.today/top-analyst-claims-solana-is-facing-hate-after-tarnishing-its-reputation

Top Analyst Claims Solana Is Facing Hate After Tarnishing Its Reputation

DonAlt, a prominent pseudonymous cryptocurrency pundit with more than 650,000 followers, believes that Solana has gone from "beloved" to "hated" quickly after its reputation has been tarnished. "SOL went from beloved to hated quickly only because everyone on the chain lost all their money to scams," he said.  As noted by DonAlt, there were many voices who had some concerns about "a scam" culture on the chain during the early stages of its development. However, these concerns were largely ignored by the community due to the fact that they helped to inflate numbers, thus making the ecosystem way more prominent.

[Mayday]

Dude sits on Hollywood sign to pump his bags!

If this is pre alt season, surely peak must be chopping off body parts? 

[Mayday]

Coming back to this from my model in 2020 where I had Gold topping in 2025.

Now magically we are starting to hear Gold is missing from vaults.

Can’t make this shit up. Gold topping top out this year. This also now lines up with the end of CPI inflationary waves. I ran 3 wave model, first wave bang on but a trump got elected and I abandoned it and went to lowering inflation model.

The 2 go hand in hand. Once CPi tops out, Gold tops, rates top, we all go down. I had a Gold cycle top at 3,100-3,300. Let’s see how this goes, people are crazy bullish Gold and I’m taking the other side. I say if Gold is missing, why the fuck would they reprice higher and buy it back, they’ll short it into the dirt IMO.

Or even better, what if it turns out the US has seized oodles of Gold the past 50yrs? They discover they are sitting on huge piles of Gold, Trump then says why did they hoard it when we have all this debt? He then states the US will sell the agile to help pay off US debt. We then see Gold top out while also  breaking the correlation to BTC.

[Mayday]

This one thing does more than reading 1,000 useless crypto articles.

BTC is going up as the market will begin the final risk on move and absolutely melt anyone bearish!

Timing moved to my peak cycle estimate.

[obsidian]

This could all be copium - but interesting theory. Saw this on Reddit:



Here's an interesting theory by another poster:

This isn't the reason ETH is pumping, but it's the reason ETH will pump this week:

Bybit is buying OTC, which isn't currently affecting the price

Bybit has only been able to acquire around 15% of the ETH they need

If Bybit cannot acquire the remaining ETH by Monday morning at market open, ETH ETF orders, which are conducted OTC, will start bidding against Bybit

Once an OTC bidding war starts, exchange prices will rapidly rise

Shorts get liquidated and are forced to buy ETH

People start to FOMO in

This whole scenario has the potential to cause ETH to 3x over the coming week. I could be wrong, but this "almost black swan" could lead to an actual supply squeeze.

If you want this to happen, pull your keys off exchanges immediately. CEXs use fractional reserves - the less ETH on exchange, the better. CEXs use your other coins as leverage to take out loans. Store everything in your wallets.

I am not a financial advisor. DYOR

As a side note, Kraken experienced a supply crunch today and suddenly jumped from 2800 to 3000 because there was no ETH available at market price.

[obsidian]

Here's a link to the wallet addresses of the Bybit hackers. They split the loot into forty 10,000 ETH wallets. These addresses have been blacklisted by most exchanges. We'll see what happens here. There have been calls to roll back the chain or even burn the stolen ETH.

https://etherscan.io/txs?a=0x47666fab8bd0ac7003bce3f5c3585383f09486e2&f=2

[obsidian]

The hackers used a funny ENS name. 

[Mayday]

Here's a link to the wallet addresses of the Bybit hackers. They split the loot into forty 10,000 ETH wallets. These addresses have been blacklisted by most exchanges. We'll see what happens here. There have been calls to roll back the chain or even burn the stolen ETH.

https://etherscan.io/txs?a=0x47666fab8bd0ac7003bce3f5c3585383f09486e2&f=2

Crypto doing exactly as it’s designed to do, take away privacy and make everything traceable.

Interesting that people immediately call for rolls backs and burnings yet it never occurs to them the entire movement is traceable unless it hits a non-KYC exchange to bank transfer.

The country who allows the laundering will be out in the open. Enter the US who wants to control crypto and the US could simply sanction said country. So maybe, nobody wants to launder the money due to the risk involved, or maybe they do it and the US hits them at some point with sanctions.

So if Korea starts to launder through China, we all see it.

I assume the exchanges are always involved. When was the last time your bank account got hacked? Never. Yet crypto exchanges lose shit all the time, it’s insiders.

[Mayday]

But it’s muh president’s own memecoin.

Rugged so hard it’s price is now less than the opening.

The 3AC guys just got their new exchange liquidated.

Kanye West sold his account for 17M to rug pullers.

All social media grifters claiming alt season pump is here, meanwhile everyone is being lead to a slaughterhouse.

The president will win in the end but like I said, we don’t know his timeline. One should be open to a bleedout in 2024-26 with a peak in 2027.

[gib]

Arg, well now I need to come back to defend myself. I have been RIGHT throughout this thread and I think everyone knows it.

From the beginning, explaining what an important BTC asset was, (when it was at the 3.5K level) back in 2017, to predicting 100K price target by 2025  - (some here laughed at me and mocked my predictions, some got super angry - they were all proven wrong in time), to explaining why we all need to gravitate to BTC (and to why all alts are inherent affinity scams on BTC, to explaining why alts will fail over time to BTC), to calling (and explaining) Eth's eventual downfall. I timed and called the beginning of 2 prior BTC bull cycles PERFECTLY. Absolutely nailed it. Warned against the possibility liquidity driven ETH capitulation, only to see the exact scenario I warned against play out in less then a week after I gave this warning.  I could go on. Ultimately, everyone here can read my views, make their own decisions, and then only have themselves to thank (or blame), for whatever they ultimately decide to do. I can only guide you, and I believe I have done my best in fulfilling this role.

Yes, I explained in the past why ETH is a security, (and by the way it yes IT IS STILL, a security). You need to understand this, if you are to understand how ETH (and other "crypto" differ from BTC).

I explained, numerous times, why, regardless of what the SEC approved, not matter how you package up and wrap a piece of shit - it still remains shit. Whether you call Eth a security or, not, this does not change its core features and characteristics and faults and flaws and weaknesses. I explained numerous times why ETH's security-like issuance and ownership features would lead to its downfall (for obvious reasons), and I was again, 100% correct. I don't have the time to keep repeating this over and over.

Yes, I expressed the view that I didn't think the SEC should approve an ETH ETF (for obvious reasons), and I was right in holding that view. I obviously cannot dictate what the SEC ultimately does - no one can - but I explained that regardless of what the SEC approves or not, no such approval can alter the various qualities and faults ETH has. And that indeed is exactly what has happened.

As for this latest argument from Justin Drake you keep quoting, to me that indicates that you really are now are in the "denial" moving to an eventual "acceptance" phase. Justin is smart (like you), but he is also really a bit of a nut-case. He is an obvious Eth schill, and he (unfortunately for him), was to smart for his own self. And so, he greedily and shortsightedly backed the wrong horse, thinking he could steal BTC's glory and rape its immaculate conception through fraud and deception. Which in the long term, was a tactic always doomed to fail. As fellow Eth founding developer Eric Conner said just last week to Justin's alarmist nonsense:

"Doesn't really seem like the best to poke at BTC after being smoked on the playing field for the last 4 years)".

You say "crypto needs to drop tribalism". However, you and many of this de-gen generation, seem to fail to comprehend that wealth, and resources, are scarce and finite. So, we inherently do need tribalism and loyalty for BTC to succeed. Which it will do (for obvious reasons).

If we could all create an infinite number of "better than BTC" cryptos which all went infinitely up, that would be wonderful for some for sure - but this is and always was, a naive pipedream - this not how money, finance, or physics work. When I first studied the feasibility of BTC, I KNEW that tribalism and a relentless defence of BTC as THE GLOBAL STORE OF VALUE had to be essential to BTC's success. This was the biggest single attack vector I identified, and boy did the Eth schills try to exploit it. Which is part of the reason why anyone who truly understands finance and economics and moral philosophy hates ETH for the fraud and theft it tried to pull off. (Basically preying on investor's ignorance and their greed). And that, Obsidian, apart from the fact that I do truly want you and other GetBiggers to succeed, is why I am here to keep setting things straight when I see dangerous and misguided views being expressed.

I remember when Justin was predicting ETH flippening BTC. Didn't happen. BTC now 2T, Eth 300B. And it won't ever happen (for obvious reasons). (What WILL happen is that BTC WILL FLIPPEN GOLD. That is a certainty).

At one point he predicted ETH would outperform BTC by 4x this cycle, and that it would hit $16000 per coin. Didn't happen. Indeed ETH underperformed BTC by 50% in just the last year alone, and indeed it fell below 3K per coin.

He knows ETH has huge problems, but he is now grasping at straws and whataboutisms directed towards BTC in the hope that somehow trying to discredit BTC will help his ETH investment. Reality is that the much touted ETH merge, and the Dancun update for Eth have both been an absolute disaster. It can't be undone, and ETH's sound money narrative it was trying to push against BTC has well and truly and definitively entirely discredited (for obvious reasons). Now - will they fuck up this Frankenstein ETH crypto experiment with the so called Pectra update? Yes, quite possibly. That change will in any case  also come with huge further uncertainty and bring even greater credibility risks t ETH that it already now has. You simply can't be sound money if you change your issuance schedules on a whim. This is the entire problem that BTC was invested to defend against! So, that narrative is totally lost. And it was unfortunately that very narrative of "better sound money than BTC" which ETH investors were betting on when they bought ETH. Which now of course has been proven totally wrong for all to see.

The FUD Justin keeps pushing for BTC eventually being attacked are far-fetched at best. He fails to understand (or at least conveniently fails to acknowledge) both game theory, and the impact of economic incentives. He fails to accept and learn from what happened during the block-size wars. He fails to admit that even in his far-fetched theory, the individual nodes after such a theoretical 51% attack simply will not accept the new illegitimate chain (for obvious reasons). He fails to understand that in the future, as a base layer of money, not only will BTC mining still be highly incentivized, but there will be great money to be made from securing base-layer transactions. When BTC is THE global standard of wealth, fees will be much much higher than they are now. And countries, and financial institutions will be happy to pay for the benefits and security and certainty provided. And he fails to accept that, at the right time, perhaps 20 years from now, BTC owners may  make some very carefully-reasoned tweaks to the code, if certain emerging risks do need to be addressed. (However, one thing that will never change is the BTC issuance rate).

OK - and now I really will take a break. I will read comments occasionally. But I will resist attempts at trolling attempts to bring me back. But I will be back in time, likely to point out Eth has hit a 5 year low to BTC (which will happen, for obvious reasons).

OK, well I said I would be back to point out when Eth has hit a 5 year low to BTC, which I explained would happen for obvious reasons. And now it has...

I take no great pleasure or relish in being right. I just hope my comments benefitted some, and hopefully benefit others going forwards. And do to genuinely feel for anyone in "alts". But as I have said thought this thread, there is only so much I can do, and lessons will unfortunately and enviably be learned...

What happens next? Eth will hit a 6 year low to BTC, (for obvious reasons). No one can predict exactly when that will occur, but I think that this new lowpoint will very likely occur some time over the next 12 months. I will be back to point this out, when it happens...

[affeman]

That's it - the Trump effect squibbed, the bubble is popping at this very moment; get out as long as you can.

[obsidian]

OK, well I said I would be back to point out when Eth has hit a 5 year low to BTC, which I explained would happen for obvious reasons. And now it has...

I take no great pleasure or relish in being right. I just hope my comments benefitted some, and hopefully benefit others going forwards. And do to genuinely feel for anyone in "alts". But as I have said thought this thread, there is only so much I can do, and lessons will unfortunately and enviably be learned...

What happens next? Eth will hit a 6 year low to BTC, (for obvious reasons). No one can predict exactly when that will occur, but I think that this new lowpoint will very likely occur some time over the next 12 months. I will be back to point this out, when it happens...

Go to this site:

https://coinranking.com/

Change timeline to 5 years.

BTC = +842.65%
ETH = +866.89%

So as of right now no, ETH is up more than BTC over 5 years.

Yes BTC had a great run. And ETH could still bleed more. At some point in a few years Bitcoin's flawed economic security will become an issue.

It is possible to manufacture ASICs at $10 per 1 TH/s.

The current total BTC hashrate is 741.40 EH/s.

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

1 EH/s = 1 million TH/s

The attacker would need to control approximately 771.66 EH/s to achieve 51% control of the new total hashrate:
741.40+771.66=1,513.06 EH/s

Let's round it up to 800 EH/s.

That's a manufacturing cost of $8 billion at $10 per 1 TH/s.

The energy would be around 5-6 GW. +/- $20 million per day.

Let's call BTC a $2 trillion asset. So all that is secured by $8 billion and $20 million power per day. That's a ratio of 200:1

It would cost a lot more than $8 billion and change to 51% attack Ethereum.

To execute a 51% attack the attacker would need to buy the entire staked ETH and another 1% on top of that.

There's 33.5 Million Staked ETH.

The attacker needs to stake approximately 34.867 million ETH to achieve 51% control of the new total staked ETH:
33.5+34.867=68.367 million ETH

Let's go low with ETH @ $2,000

If the attacker could buy all the ETH at a spot price of $2,000, it would still cost them $69.734 billion. The problem is, there is no way to get that amount from any exchange. Nobody has that liquidity. They would have to keep buying up ETH for many years, which would drive up the price of ETH. It could end up costing trillions and even then they might not get there. That's the power of a network effect and an increased number of holders.

So Ethereum's economic security is probably more than 10x Bitcoin's. And every 4 years, it will get worse for BTC. You might want to think where your Bitcoin will be decades from now. It might have to find a home as a meme token on Ethereum or another blockchain that does not have a security dilemma.

[obsidian]

But it’s muh president’s own memecoin.

Rugged so hard it’s price is now less than the opening.

The 3AC guys just got their new exchange liquidated.

Kanye West sold his account for 17M to rug pullers.

All social media grifters claiming alt season pump is here, meanwhile everyone is being lead to a slaughterhouse.

The president will win in the end but like I said, we don’t know his timeline. One should be open to a bleedout in 2024-26 with a peak in 2027.

This is why I say you must be bipolar. You're all over the place.

I have been bullish always actually. You're the one that spelled doom and gloom till 2030. Now you are again saying 2024-2026 is a bleedout.

But less than a month ago you posted this. LMAO! You are confusing the fuck out of people.

Yes I am sure.

Forget headlines because you can’t quantify the data.

S&P to 7k
Property ATH this year and huge growth in 2026

This is the biggest wealth generating period in your lifetime and you have been bearish the entire time

[affeman]

No Ethereum is not Silver, just an alt in decline and impossible to reform.
the only cryptocurrency considered to be silver is and will be Kaspa.
Solana is in another dimension comparable to an integrated digital web 3 solution company. The equivalent of Microsoft Apple Nvidia Amazon.

How's your Solana investment doin' buddy? You still that enthusiastic about your Solana?