Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Mayday]

There's two types of inflation, the usual asset price and product price inflation due to monetary expansion, currency holders grumble but put up with the hidden tax. The far more devastating "loss of confidence in the currency" inflation -> hyperinflation, currency holders begin to exit, when holders of the currency begin exiting the remaining holders have to take the hit of all the accumulated inflation that was just dumped by the exiters

As unbelievable as it sounds the US$ is definitely starting to feel some of the effects of the latter. Microstrategy is putting reserves into BTC precisely for these stated reasons, and they are the in the vanguard.

Hyperbitcoinisation is now becoming a distinct possibility.

Hyperinflation is 50% inflation per month. We are not anywhere remotely close to that this year let alone each month.

In March my prediction for 2020 was 25% annual currency expansion. As of the end of September we sit at 16%, the 4th highest in over 80yrs.

In 2 months, we will have experienced the largest increase in annual currency expansion in over 80yrs and we will be ballpark 25% by year end (i rack all money supply data against IRs, CPI, wage inflation and property medians).

The result? CPI is 1.7%, interest rates are at zero and retail banks are lowering their own rates, gold is banging it's head on the ceiling and we are on edge of property and businesses going backwards. 

So no, shit isn't flying up anywhere right now as a result from currency expansion. This is why so many predictions  have been wrong because they completely dismiss that we are deflating the debt market right now.

If a hamburger goes up 50 cents but your property loses 100k, are you really going to whinge that we are on the verge of hyperinflation because your burger is getting expensive?

[gib]

If a hamburger goes up 50 cents but your property loses 100k, are you really going to whinge that we are on the verge of hyperinflation because your burger is getting expensive?

Do you mean "but your property gains 100K"?

[gib]

Good clip here that discusses the macro-economics of inflation and future economic outlook. For those who are more academic minded well worth a listen.

[Mayday]

Do you mean "but your property gains 100K"?

No, as the context to why i was replying is people claiming we are on the verge of 50% inflation each month because something insignificant they bought was a little mkre expensive. Meanwhile disregarding that certain large property markets are in a world of hurt.

Ie when you take into account that the most exoensive thing you own has lost a chunk of value, you won't r3ally give a shit about a 50c price rise of your hamburger, nor would one claim 50% inflation each month.

[Mr Anabolic]

No, as the context to why i was replying is people claiming we are on the verge of 50% inflation each month because something insignificant they bought was a little mkre expensive. Meanwhile disregarding that certain large property markets are in a world of hurt.

Ie when you take into account that the most exoensive thing you own has lost a chunk of value, you won't r3ally give a shit about a 50c price rise of your hamburger, nor would one claim 50% inflation each month.

Your brain is made of hamburger. 

[Marty Champions]

No, as the context to why i was replying is people claiming we are on the verge of 50% inflation each month because something insignificant they bought was a little mkre expensive. Meanwhile disregarding that certain large property markets are in a world of hurt.

Ie when you take into account that the most exoensive thing you own has lost a chunk of value, you won't r3ally give a shit about a 50c price rise of your hamburger, nor would one claim 50% inflation each month.

housing depreciation and what some one will pay for a house are totally unrelated because no property in the past 10 years has gotten cheaper

[gib]

No, as the context to why i was replying is people claiming we are on the verge of 50% inflation each month because something insignificant they bought was a little mkre expensive. Meanwhile disregarding that certain large property markets are in a world of hurt.

Ie when you take into account that the most exoensive thing you own has lost a chunk of value, you won't r3ally give a shit about a 50c price rise of your hamburger, nor would one claim 50% inflation each month.

Which property markets are in a world of hurt? Property in most countries are close to record highs (at least where I invest). Are you talking about places in the US such as Detroit etc? Ny and San Francisco, Portland, Florida, Miami etc all doing well.

But yes, I agree, a 50% loss on a leveraged asset would really hurt for some people. Which is why we see money printing and continued price asset support from the Fed. Keeps the banks happy. Keeps developers happy. Creates for for laborers. Encourages spending due to the "wealth effect". And (very insidiously) enables the Government to effectively steal money from the masses through capital gains taxes (among other taxes).

[polychronopolous]

JPMorgan says institutional investors appear to prefer bitcoin over gold

Institutional investors, such as family offices, might be looking at bitcoin as an alternative to gold, according to JPMorgan analysts.

In a research note published Friday, JPMorgan analysts said Grayscale's bitcoin trust saw cumulative inflows through October, whereas gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw "modest outflows" since mid-October. "This contrast lends support to the idea that some investors that previously invested in gold ETFs such as family offices, may be looking at bitcoin as an alternative to gold," said the analysts.

Both retail and institutional investors are driving demand for Grayscale's bitcoin trust, according to the analysts. The trust currently manages $7.6 billion worth of assets in total.


The potential long-term upside for bitcoin is "considerable" if it competes "more intensely with gold as an 'alternative' currency,'" according to the analysts. However, bitcoin's market cap would have to rise ten times from current levels "to match the total private sector investment in gold ETFs or bars and coins," said the analysts.

Corporate endorsements of bitcoin in general and PayPal's support, in particular, have also propelled the demand for bitcoin, according to the analysts. Bitcoin, however, appears to be "close to overbought levels on our momentum signal framework, something that could potential[ly] trigger profit taking or mean reversion flows," said the analysts.

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/84001/jpmorgan-bitcoin-gold-institutional-investors-gbtc

[polychronopolous]

Every Major Bank Will Have Exposure to Bitcoin, Says Renowned Fund Manager Bill Miller


Veteran investor Bill Miller says that all major banks, investment banks, and high net worth firms will eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or something like it. He said that bitcoin’s staying power is getting better every day.

Bill Miller’s Bullish Statements About Bitcoin
A growing number of major corporations have been gaining exposure to bitcoin, prompting speculation of when the rest of them will follow. Following Microstrategy’s $425 million investment, Square invested in bitcoin and Paypal launched a cryptocurrency service. Now, famous investor Bill Miller reportedly told CNBC on Friday:

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it.

He named “gold or some kind of commodities” as alternative investments like bitcoin.

Bill Miller founded Miller Value Partners and currently serves as its chairman and chief investment officer. He manages the Opportunity Equity and Income Strategy portfolios. Miller previously co-founded Legg Mason Capital Management and co-managed the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust from its inception in 1982. He took over as sole manager in December 1990 and served in this role for the next 20 years. Prior to joining Legg Mason, he served as treasurer of the JE Baker Company, a major manufacturer of products for the steel and cement industries. He famously beat the S&P 500 every year from 1991 to 2005.

While noting that the price of bitcoin has been “very volatile,” the famed investor believes that the cryptocurrency’s “staying power gets better every day” and the risks of it “going to zero are much much lower than they’ve ever been before.”

https://news.bitcoin.com/bill-miller-every-major-bank-exposure-bitcoin/

[Mr Anabolic]

JPMorgan says institutional investors appear to prefer bitcoin over gold

Institutional investors, such as family offices, might be looking at bitcoin as an alternative to gold, according to JPMorgan analysts.

In a research note published Friday, JPMorgan analysts said Grayscale's bitcoin trust saw cumulative inflows through October, whereas gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw "modest outflows" since mid-October. "This contrast lends support to the idea that some investors that previously invested in gold ETFs such as family offices, may be looking at bitcoin as an alternative to gold," said the analysts.

Both retail and institutional investors are driving demand for Grayscale's bitcoin trust, according to the analysts. The trust currently manages $7.6 billion worth of assets in total.


The potential long-term upside for bitcoin is "considerable" if it competes "more intensely with gold as an 'alternative' currency,'" according to the analysts. However, bitcoin's market cap would have to rise ten times from current levels "to match the total private sector investment in gold ETFs or bars and coins," said the analysts.

Corporate endorsements of bitcoin in general and PayPal's support, in particular, have also propelled the demand for bitcoin, according to the analysts. Bitcoin, however, appears to be "close to overbought levels on our momentum signal framework, something that could potential[ly] trigger profit taking or mean reversion flows," said the analysts.

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/84001/jpmorgan-bitcoin-gold-institutional-investors-gbtc

[polychronopolous]

Billionaire Investor Stanley Druckenmiller: Bitcoin Better Bet than Gold

Stanley Druckenmiller, a billionaire investor who managed George Soros's money back in the 1990s, today sang the praises of Bitcoin.

"It could be an asset class that has a lot of attraction as a store of value to both Millennials and to the new West Coast money—and as you know they've got a lot of it," said Druckenmiller. "It's been around for 13 years [actually, 12] and with each passing day it picks up more of its stabilization," he said in an interview with CNBC today.

Druckenmiller's comments come as Bitcoin's price breaks past $15,000, almost four times its price in March, and about $5,000 more than its price at the start of last month.

"I own many many more times gold than I own Bitcoin, but frankly if the gold bet works, the Bitcoin bet will probably work better," he said, because it's "more illiquid and has a lot more beta to it," he said. Beta measures how volatile an asset is compared to the market as a whole.

Druckenmiller in 2018 invested in Basis, a US stablecoin company that shut down in...2018.

Last June, Druckenmiller told an audience at the Economic Club of New York that he considers Bitcoin "a solution in search of a problem," and that he "didn't need to be playing in Bitcoin."

He would neither short nor long Bitcoin, since he doesn't get why it's a store of value. “I don’t understand why we need this thing," he said.

Of the argument that Bitcoin's valuable because you can't create it, he said last year, "there are a lot of things you can't create that aren't going to go to $1 million."

https://decrypt.co/47676/stanley-druckenmiller-bitcoin-better-bet-than-gold

[gib]

JPMorgan says institutional investors appear to prefer bitcoin over gold

Institutional investors, such as family offices, might be looking at bitcoin as an alternative to gold, according to JPMorgan analysts.

In a research note published Friday, JPMorgan analysts said Grayscale's bitcoin trust saw cumulative inflows through October, whereas gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw "modest outflows" since mid-October. "This contrast lends support to the idea that some investors that previously invested in gold ETFs such as family offices, may be looking at bitcoin as an alternative to gold," said the analysts.

Both retail and institutional investors are driving demand for Grayscale's bitcoin trust, according to the analysts. The trust currently manages $7.6 billion worth of assets in total.


The potential long-term upside for bitcoin is "considerable" if it competes "more intensely with gold as an 'alternative' currency,'" according to the analysts. However, bitcoin's market cap would have to rise ten times from current levels "to match the total private sector investment in gold ETFs or bars and coins," said the analysts.

Corporate endorsements of bitcoin in general and PayPal's support, in particular, have also propelled the demand for bitcoin, according to the analysts. Bitcoin, however, appears to be "close to overbought levels on our momentum signal framework, something that could potential[ly] trigger profit taking or mean reversion flows," said the analysts.

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/84001/jpmorgan-bitcoin-gold-institutional-investors-gbtc

Of course! Every single gold investor I know (other than stubborn and bitter Mr A) have taken an interest in BTC. In many physical gold shops they now offer a Gold to BTC sale, accept BTC to buy gold, price gold in BTC (as well as other FX) etc.

[pellius]

I wish I invested in BTC when this thread first started. Back then $5000 was a big thing.

[Teutonic Knight 1]

Which property markets are in a world of hurt? Property in most countries are close to record highs (at least where I invest). Are you talking about places in the US such as Detroit etc? Ny and San Francisco, Portland, Florida, Miami etc all doing well.

Vince tell us about yours investments in Monte Carlo,Singapore,Tokyo,..............

[Mayday]

I wish I invested in BTC when this thread first started. Back then $5000 was a big thing.

It had a recent large run up. It should pullback a little.

What i find interesting is these second lockdowns...... if we see euro lockdowns in 2021 and a US lockdown in 2021, i reckon you can bank on BTC @ 100k in 2022.

[gib]

It had a recent large run up. It should pullback a little.

What i find interesting is these second lockdowns...... if we see euro lockdowns in 2021 and a US lockdown in 2021, i reckon you can bank on BTC @ 100k in 2022.

Waiting for Mr A to misquote you as saying BTC will hit 1million by 2021... LOL

[gib]

Mr Anabolic gets a mention LOL!

[Mayday]

Waiting for Mr A to misquote you as saying BTC will hit 1million by 2021... LOL

lol

I have enough data now that on the weekend i believe i see the 'big bang' of the planned solution for the 'new look' monetary system.  This makes me considerably more comfortable with crypto.

It probably needs it's own thread.

[epic is back]

Don't you have to store gold somewhere?

Where do you keep it? In an ETF? A bank vault? Do they really have your gold?

At home? What happens if you get robbed? Do you bury it in your back yard lol?

Bitcoin doesn't have this flaw.

How do you move gold around, especially across borders?

Bitcoin doesn't have this flaw.

Gold plated tungsten? 1 oz coin or is it a 0.95 oz coin?

Bitcoin doesn't have this flaw.

Have you ever bought anything with gold directly? Bitcoin is used all the time to buy stuff.

etc...

How does gold beat bitcoin in every way?

Bitcoin needs electricity to be mined or “created “

It also needs a lcd display or similar for you to “ see” it

Gold doesn’t have this flaw

Gold is heavy it’s physical

Many real things made of gold

Like the computers that make bitcoins become “real” have gold parts in them

[gib]

Bitcoin needs electricity to be mined or “created “

It also needs a lcd display or similar for you to “ see” it

Gold doesn’t have this flaw

Gold is heavy it’s physical

Many real things made of gold

Like the computers that make bitcoins become “real” have gold parts in them

Both gold and BTC require energy to be mined. That energy and effort that went into the mining are reflected in their values.

Lol that BTC needs an "LCD monitor" for you to see it. The reality is that both exist, regardless of any monitor, and both can (and do) exist regardless of whether any monitor is there or not. However, to the extent that most money and stocks are electronic records these days, to a rather simpleminded person - yes you need a monitor to "see" these too.

The fact that gold is heavy and physical is arguably a flaw that BTC does not have. Try storing 1m in gold. Try taking a few gold bars through customs to another country and see how that works out for you. Try removing a fraction of a gold bar in order to pay someone something. Try walking around the city with 30K cash in gold coins, vs BTC on your iphone. BTC has the advantage here hands down.

Thank you for telling us that many real things are made out of gold. If I ever need a filling for a cavity I might get a gold tooth.

[Humble Narcissist]

I'm all for bitcoin. It isn't going anywhere. I just don't like the use of the word crypto in the way it was used.in the above example

Just wait until they unveil Fedcoin.

[gib]

Just wait until they unveil Fedcoin.

Yes, for sure that will be huge step in legitimizing bitcoin, as older-minded people will suddenly realize that you don't need money to be in physical form for it to be real.

Further, it will boost the entire infrastructure around electronic transactions.

But most significantly, all the controls and monitoring that come with the FedCoin (and the loss of anonymity that came with paper money) will be a huge driver for BTC both among individuals and n0n-US citizens (or indeed anyone who wants to be outside of the control of the US).

Lastly, a Fed coin will of course not be limited in supply, and will be devalued by continued printing. It is this fault of Government printed money, that lead to the value proposition of BTC's status as an immutable and undilutable store of wealth.

[Humble Narcissist]

Yes, for sure that will be huge step in legitimizing bitcoin, as older-minded people will suddenly realize that you don't need money to be in physical form for it to be real.

Further, it will boost the entire infrastructure around electronic transactions.

But most significantly, all the controls and monitoring that come with the FedCoin (and the loss of anonymity that came with paper money) will be a huge driver for BTC both among individuals and n0n-US citizens (or indeed anyone who wants to be outside of the control of the US).

Lastly, a Fed coin will of course not be limited in supply, and will be devalued by continued printing. It is this fault, that lead to the value proposition of BTC's status as an immutable and undilutable store of wealth.

Fedcoin would probably end Bitcoin quickly.

[gib]

Huh? What makes you think that?

You do realize that 99%+ of all US currency is already electronic, right?

[Humble Narcissist]

Huh? What makes you think that?

You do realize that 99%+ of all US currency is already electronic, right?

Fedcoin would replace the dollar.  If it actually is rolled out it would end the dollar and probably all other digital currencies.  This is the way the United States will end it's debt.  Other countries will do it as well.