He is correct. This could very well be one of the best (and most obvious) investments (in hindsight) over the next year...
Spot price will drive up to the approval and the launch, that’s an easy call and requires an IQ of 10. This is the narrative being pushed for retail.
However, GBTC is an interesting beast. Has a history of denied ETF, 12 month lock-in period, a high fee structure and a premium currently in the negative. Anyone who bought in during the bullrun and held is now likely an additional 50% underwater vs buying spot.
The simple question is risk. The Blackrock will be an approved ETF with exposure only to spot. Grayscale is a trust, locked in, exposure to spot and also exposure to premium which can vary an additional +/-60%.
I think the fact that GBTC is still negative tells the true story. Even at a -37% discount and a positive narrative of ETF on the horizon, big money hasn’t bought. Therefore if plebs buy GBTC does it mean plebs are considerably smarter than big money or does it mean we don’t know how to assess risk.
Gib you don’t own GBTC correct? So if this is all that easy, why haven’t you bought into the trust?
FWIW if I picked an exact number I think BTC taps out at 76k.