Gosh, I am really quite surprised, I must say, that some of the more financially savvy GetBiggers here can't seem to see what to me is a very obvious setup for massaive inflows and consequent price appreciation. I have explained the factors in my earlier post. The phase about leading a horse to water comes to mind...
We have the ability now, to front-run Billions of dollars about to flow into BTC over the next year from massive financial institutions globally. With fixed supply, HODLing, and a surge in demand, the outcome on price is obvious.
How would an increase in military conflict, in the ME, or elsewhere, impact Bitcoin? Any global conflict should be highly positive for Bitcoin demand, and indeed the more severe such conflict, the stronger the demand should be.
Could we see a Bitcoin price movement this year of 30%? Sure we could, given BTC's historical volatility. Bear in mind, volitility works both ways - we could just as easily see a 30% surge. (We have just seen 15% move up over the last 2 weeks).
MayDay - I can see where you get your prediction of a BTC cycle in 2024 from. My view is that this next cycle will run much longer (maybe even right past 2028), primarily because institutional and HNW investors, who will be the major driver of price over the next cycle, take far longer to move, and because the mathematical effect of progressive havening's diminish each time they occur.
PS - just a little factoid - in its entire existence, BTC this year in 2023, has had is lowest annual volatility to date. That is not to say this will continue each year, but overall, as adoption and market cap grow, annual volatility should drop.
As for those no-coiners who whine "oh but its too volatile", my response is that volatility is awesome if you buy low and sell high. If you know that the long term is up, then stacking sats and HODL is the perfect strategy.
