Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[obsidian]

https://cryptoslate.com/buterin-believes-layer-2-are-close-to-solving-the-interoperability-problem/

Vitalik Buterin believes Ethereum Layer-2 networks are close to solving the interoperability problem
Buterin said "people will be surprised" at how soon many of the mainstay challenges will be overcome.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin forecasts a rapid resolution of cross-Layer-2 interoperability issues within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Buterin said in an Aug. 5 social media post that recent advancements and collaborative efforts will soon eliminate current challenges. He added:

“I think people will be surprised by how quickly ‘cross-L2 interoperability problems’ stop being problems and we get a smooth user experience across the entire Ethereum-verse.”

His comments highlight ongoing efforts to streamline user interactions across Ethereum’s Layer-1 and Layer-2 (L2) networks, including rollups, validiums, and sidechains.

L2 solutions for Ethereum face significant challenges, including ensuring interoperability across different Layer-2 networks, maintaining high-security standards, and addressing scalability issues such as data availability and transaction throughput.

User experience complexities and the need for seamless integration with existing infrastructure also pose hurdles.

[obsidian]

You are fully correct. However, they type of investor chasing alt-gains don't care. And that is the very problem with any non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency.

Which is why institutional investors need to be careful with something like Solana. Imagine a Solana ETF and it shuts down for a day because the L1 becomes overwhelmed.

Everyone chases gains including you. You want your Bitcoin bags to pamp! Bitcoin Maxi's act like their shit don't stink which is hilarious. Ethereum can do everything Bitcoin can and more. It's faster, lower inflation, gives yield, can do DEFI.

Bitcoin edges out Ethereum when it comes to name recognition, ease of pronunciation, being the OG crypto. Those are not insignificant. But the POW model needs to be figured out - because it is a dead end IMO. Unless governments are willing to keep it going regardless of profitability.

[obsidian]

Paul Barron has a great YouTube channel. In this video he looks at Jump Trading and whether they are being forced to sell their portfolio. They have been selling Ethereum the past couple of days and also have a Solana stake.

[gib]

Everyone chases gains including you. You want your Bitcoin bags to pamp! Bitcoin Maxi's act like their shit don't stink which is hilarious. Ethereum can do everything Bitcoin can and more. It's faster, lower inflation, gives yield, can do DEFI.

You are missing a few concepts here. The "work" required to get Bitcoin is also what gives it its value and rareness (whilst at the same time protecting the network". This is one of the most important features of Bitcoin. BTC can't just be created out of thin air, like ETH was, and like is the case with almost all alts. Imagine if I invented a new form of plastic diamond or gold, which I promoted as being "better" because it takes less energy to create than BTC. Or a cheap chinese watch vs a Patek Philippe.

There will ALWAYS be alts which are created and promoted as being "better" than Bitcoin. Eth being one of the first that tried to benefit from promoting an affinity to BTC, and an infinite number thereafter. Once you understand that, (and once you accept that the market will also understand that, regardless of your personal feelings), you will understand why it makes sense for all of us to agree on a single universal store of value (being Bitcoin), and why over the long term, all alts will be diluted to infinity...vs BTC.

And this is why you will see the trend of ETH declining in value to BTC (now down 30% over the year) gradually continue. (Same thing will happen to Solana over time, and to any other "alt" which is the latest "next best thing"...

[obsidian]

You are missing a few concepts here. The "work" required to get Bitcoin is also what gives it its value and rareness (whilst at the same time protecting the network". This is one of the most important features of Bitcoin. BTC can't just be created out of thin air, like ETH was, and like is the case with almost all alts. Imagine if I invented a new form of plastic diamond or gold, which I promoted as being "better" because it takes less energy to create than BTC. Or a cheap chinese watch vs a Patek Philippe.

There will ALWAYS be alts which are created and promoted as being "better" than Bitcoin. Eth being one of the first that tried to benefit from promoting an affinity to BTC, and an infinite number thereafter. Once you understand that, (and once you accept that the market will also understand that, regardless of your personal feelings), you will understand why it makes sense for all of us to agree on a single universal store of value (being Bitcoin), and why over the long term, all alts will be diluted to infinity...vs BTC.

And this is why you will see the trend of ETH declining in value to BTC (now down 30% over the year) gradually continue. (Same thing will happen to Solana over time, and to any other "alt" which is the latest "next best thing"...

Ethereum was mined initially and after the switch to POS validators have to validate transactions and ETH is then minted as a reward for the work the validators performed. Some say Ethereum was pre-mined. Well, just so you know, for the first 6 months the BTC hash rate was around 6 MH/s. Meaning Satoshi was about the only one mining BTC, and Satoshi was able to mine 1 million BTC. That is basically pre-mining. Nobody else mined BTC in the beginning. 6 Mh/s is nothing. An RTX 3090 could hash over 120 MH/s. Even an ATI RX580 could mine over 32 MH/s. That's one GPU exceeding the entire BTC network hashrate in 2009 by more than a factor of 5-20 or more!

Bitcoin mining is a dead end long term. It is centralized and unprofitable and this will be amplified during future halving events. 4 entities are already mining more than 50% of the new monthly BTC supply:

MARA, CLSK, CORZ and RIOT. In July these 4 mined 1,778 BTC. The total mined worldwide was 3,217 BTC.

1,778 / 3,217 = 55.26%

BlackRock and Vanguard have significant stakes in MARA.

https://farside.co.uk/miners/

Ethereum Spot ETF inflows so far total $1,890 billion. This is the total amount accumulated by the 8 Spot ETH ETF products. The Grayscale ETHE outflows have been $2,296 billion as was expected. The same outflows happened with Bitcoin. The fact that the other 8 managed to accumulate close to $2 billion in 2 weeks is very telling. This means there is a significant demand for Spot ETH ETFs. Bitwise speculated that about $15 billion would flow into the Spot ETF funds in the first 18 months. I would say this could be possible considering how much volume we've seen in 2 weeks.

https://farside.co.uk/eth/
https://farside.co.uk/btc/

The current total Spot BTC ETFs inflows are $17.341 billion, after subtracting Grayscale's (GBTC) $19.451 billion outflows. But these products have been offered since January, or more than 7 months. The BTC ETFs inflows could total $50 billion in the first 18 months.

BTC Spot ETF inflows +/- 28 weeks = $36.792 billion
ETH Spot ETF inflows 2 weeks = $1.890 billion

28 weeks / 2 weeks = 14

$1,890 x 14 = $26.460 billion

That's of course assuming the current rate of accumulation continues. If the price of ETH picks up it could accelerate. We'll see. The numbers are not looking too bad. ETHE is still bleeding. Even GBTC is still bleeding. Friday's GBTC outflow was $77 million.

[Mayday]

GiB is right dude.

Your mining argument only makes sense if Bitcoin collapses to zero, never to return. If that happens it takes everything else with it. Sure, it’s possible but you would then be saying the entire crypto industry is currently in the process of vanishing.

Anyhoo we are in a bear market now so everyone will get destroyed. BTC is the wrecking ball to teach people a lesson in humility.

[obsidian]

This is interesting. I posted a hypothetical ETH chart in this thread on 10/12/2023. To create the chart I took the chart history on that date and scaled it out into the future. It's converging with today's chart - lmao! The green indicates the real price action from 10/12/2023 - today and the blue is my fictional chart. Total coincidence! Note that the ETH price ran up more than my fictional chart anticipated. Could we be at the bottom of the hill?

https://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=574601.9797

[obsidian]

GiB is right dude.

Your mining argument only makes sense if Bitcoin collapses to zero, never to return. If that happens it takes everything else with it. Sure, it’s possible but you would then be saying the entire crypto industry is currently in the process of vanishing.

Anyhoo we are in a bear market now so everyone will get destroyed. BTC is the wrecking ball to teach people a lesson in humility.

My argument is that the longer Bitcoin mining remains unprofitable the more it will become centralized and impact Bitcoin's security. Would you mine Bitcoin if you're losing $20-25k for each BTC you mine?! The entire scheme is bound to collapse as future halving events makes it more and more expensive to mine BTC. Miners will quit and turn to other endeavors as they already are with AI. I would venture the cost to own, operate, and maintain an Ethereum validator is less than the yield paid out. The hardware would not become obsolete as fast as Bitcoin ASIC hardware. Solana validators have more expensive hardware requirements compared with Ethereum.

https://www.attestant.io/posts/exploring-ethereum-2-validator-costs/

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

https://www.coinspeaker.com/marathon-digital-mara-stock-revenue/

Marathon Digital (MARA) Stock Tanks 7% as Bitcoin Miner’s Revenue Drops in Q2 2024

In Q2 2024, the company’s adjusted EBITDA swung into a loss of $85.1 million from a profit of $35.8 million in the previous year.

Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital (NASDAQ: MARA) reported its Q2 2024 earnings on Thursday, August 1, while missing its revenue numbers by a wide margin from Wall Street expectations. As a result, the MARA Stock dropped by 7.7% as of Thursday’s closing.

[Mayday]

This is interesting. I posted a hypothetical ETH chart in this thread on 10/12/2023. To create the chart I took the chart history on that date and scaled it out into the future. It's converging with today's chart - lmao! The green indicates the real price action from 10/12/2023 - today and the blue is my fictional chart. Total coincidence! Note that the ETH price ran up more than my fictional chart anticipated. Could we be at the bottom of the hill?

https://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=574601.9797

No, We got fucked this cycle. You get nuked now.

The pain ahead isn’t eve the real pain. I’ll give you the heads up, you will be told the cycle is going to push out to 2026 because you had the bear market, effectively resetting the bullrun. It’s not true.

[obsidian]

No, We got fucked this cycle. You get nuked now.

The pain ahead isn’t eve the real pain. I’ll give you the heads up, you will be told the cycle is going to push out to 2026 because you had the bear market, effectively resetting the bullrun. It’s not true.

Where do you see the numbers going for BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA?

I hope you're wrong. The only alt that hit a new ATH so far this cycle was BNB. ETH made it to around 87% and SOL 77%. The rest never even came close. We'll see what happens. It is possible to have a bearish cycle within a bullish cycle. Just look at past charts and the fictional chart I made. With supply and demand, FOMO, and FUD, you get a lot of emotionally charged trading, buying, and selling.

[French]

On Solana, we see Anatoly’s vision of a single atomic state machine as a powerful use case of decentralized blockchains, lowering information asymmetry.
-DePIN
-DeFi
-NFT innovation
-Firedancer

[Mayday]

Where do you see the numbers going for BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA?

I hope you're wrong. The only alt that hit a new ATH so far this cycle was BNB. ETH made it to around 87% and SOL 77%. The rest never even came close. We'll see what happens. It is possible to have a bearish cycle within a bullish cycle. Just look at past charts and the fictional chart I made. With supply and demand, FOMO, and FUD, you get a lot of emotionally charged trading, buying, and selling.

Big prices are off the table, my BTC 76k remains the closest call out there. It’ll spike again next year, I sold at 73.1k and have the patience to wait for my entry again.

I’ve been long the S&P for a while.

I just don’t fight it because I can’t change it.

[gib]

Where do you see the numbers going for BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA?

I hope you're wrong. The only alt that hit a new ATH so far this cycle was BNB. ETH made it to around 87% and SOL 77%. The rest never even came close. We'll see what happens. It is possible to have a bearish cycle within a bullish cycle. Just look at past charts and the fictional chart I made. With supply and demand, FOMO, and FUD, you get a lot of emotionally charged trading, buying, and selling.

Actually every "alt" launched this cycle hit an ATH... And therein of course, lies the lesson...

[Griffith]

BlackRock Ethereum ETF Eyeing $1 Billion Flow Milestone

The BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has clinched a new flow milestone toward the $1 billion mark. This demonstrates ETHA's increasing growth, among other issuers, approved to trade a spot Ethereum ETF in the U.S.

https://u.today/blackrock-ethereum-etf-eyeing-1-billion-flow-milestone-details

[SouJerz]

September to remember…

[Flexacon]

No, We got fucked this cycle. You get nuked now.

The pain ahead isn’t eve the real pain. I’ll give you the heads up, you will be told the cycle is going to push out to 2026 because you had the bear market, effectively resetting the bullrun. It’s not true.

Macro probably decides what's next. Can't make a long post, but it comes down to this.

Emergency rate cuts, then everything is fucked.

25 bps cuts in Sept and onwards then consider this another can kick and we probably get another good 12 months. Global liquidity cycles ramp up. Bitcoin then the rest of crypto would do very well. Might take until November to get out of this sideways price action though.

[obsidian]

9/13 - BlackRock IBIT BTC ETF Inflow: $34.6 million
9/13 - Blackrock ETHA ETH ETF Inflow: $49.1 million

https://farside.co.uk/btc/
https://farside.co.uk/eth/

Looks like Jump trading is preparing for another Ethereum Sell-Off to reduce the price.

https://www.coinspeaker.com/jump-trading-ethereum-sell-off/

Jump Trading Prepares for Another Ethereum Sell-Off Transferring 17,049 ETH

Market maker and trading firm Jump Trading is preparing for another major ETH sell-off and has recently moved another 17,049 ETH worth a staggering $46.44 million. Blockchain analytics platform SpotonChain stated that the $46.44 million ETH claimed from the liquid staking protocol Lido is now out for sale.

Ethereum Manipulation Concerns on the Rise

Following these massive transfers, one of the users on the X platform stated that Jump Trading had transferred ETH back to their accounts while another user raised concerns regarding manipulation adding that the “firm just wants to buy more”.

[loco]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

[loco]

[Mayday]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

[loco]

 

[obsidian]

For shits and giggles:

https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/%5EETHUSD/interactive-chart

Visited barchart.com and downloaded the entire ETH price history via one of their templates as a PNG file. Imported the PNG into a CAD program. Set the units to decimals, and scaled it to match the lines of barchart. Their y-axis have a $200.00 grid. I scaled the image so each line is at 200.00. Constructed the entire grid and existing price history. Marked the ATH peak prices in January 2018 and November 2021. Made a block of the entire existing price line. Copied the block by snapping from the 2018 ATH to the 2021 ATH. Stretched the y-axis by the same factor as the previous peaks.

If history were to repeat (no guarantee of course), and disregarding diminishing returns:

ETH PRICE:

October 2024:  +/- $3,000 - $3,200
December 2024: +/- $8,000 - $8,200
February 2025: Peaks at +/- $11,800
April 2025: Crashes to +/- $9,400
September 2025: ATH peak at +/- $19,600
April 2026: Crashes to +/- $4,200

Replicating the process for the following 4 years yields an ETH ATH price of +/- $84,000 in July of 2029 - lol!

Of course, these are all just for laughs and probably will not happen. Lots of shit can happen. WW3, unknown black swan, hyperinflation.

But it shows how wild crypto prices have ranged in the past. Ethereum went from a low of $80 in 2019 to $4,800 in 2021. Bitcoin went from $1,000 to $19,500 in 2017. Supply and demand, FOMO, and emotion can create wild swings when governments don't meddle in the price action.

Here are some screenshots.

[obsidian]

Here is the Bitcoin barchart:

https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/%5EBTCUSD/interactive-chart/fullscreen

[loco]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

[obsidian]

You need to zoom out more. Look at this chart with the two most recent halving events marked: 2020/5/11 & 2024/4/19. After the 2020 halving the BTC price did not really gain steam until about 5 months later. If history were to repeat, then it could start pamping in September / October.