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Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 33319 times)
Henda
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« Reply #50 on: May 12, 2016, 11:24:23 PM »

are you always this disinterested in other men?

I fail to see the problem? I merely zoomed in on and brightened a photo or another mans crotch, what are you getting at here?
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denarii
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« Reply #51 on: May 13, 2016, 01:31:57 PM »

Must be some pretty stiff "cloth" to be sticking up at that gravity defying angle

its usually referred to as a zip isnt it.
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denarii
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« Reply #52 on: May 15, 2016, 04:20:29 PM »

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0</a>

one for bass generator and his northern welfare zoo animals.
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Henda
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« Reply #53 on: May 15, 2016, 09:30:28 PM »

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0</a>

one for bass generator and his northern welfare zoo animals.

An hour and ten minutes long and starts off with a highly punchable, disgusting gross nerd talking?? I'm not watching that shit
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Henda
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« Reply #54 on: May 16, 2016, 09:56:59 AM »

did I say there was a problem?
you "merely zoomed in on and brightened a photo or another mans crotch"



I needed a better view as I couldn't see it properly in the original, perfectly normal and acceptable, I'm not quite sure what your implying??
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denarii
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« Reply #55 on: May 17, 2016, 03:13:45 AM »

An hour and ten minutes long and starts off with a highly punchable, disgusting gross nerd talking?? I'm not watching that shit

mabe the Sun can summarise it in 100 words for you
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Henda
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« Reply #56 on: May 17, 2016, 05:44:50 AM »

mabe the Sun can summarise it in 100 words for you

I stopped reading the sun when they ditched the striker and Hagar the horrible comics
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Charlys69
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« Reply #57 on: May 18, 2016, 10:29:09 AM »

Brexit-----"please"   

but only one rule "there is no way, and no Option to go back to the EU ".
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denarii
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« Reply #58 on: May 19, 2016, 04:04:15 AM »

If we were not in the EU, joining it would not be up for discussion, so whats the issue with leaving?!?
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local hero
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« Reply #59 on: May 26, 2016, 11:03:50 PM »

If we were not in the EU, joining it would not be up for discussion, so whats the issue with leaving?!?


This comment has stuck with me and it does run true, much as it pains me to admit it....
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local hero
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« Reply #60 on: May 26, 2016, 11:05:55 PM »

100% correct. If the UK leaves it will give the Tory Government a Free Hand. This will not happen because i have heard that plans are in for a "Euro Army".. no joke. It is all signed and sealed. 


This was just on the news this morning, leaked documents..... To be kept secret till after the vote....
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denarii
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« Reply #61 on: May 29, 2016, 08:23:55 AM »


This comment has stuck with me and it does run true, much as it pains me to admit it....

The 'economists' calling for remain;

Did they predict the GFC?

Did they recommend the UK join the Euro

Do they believe in aliens?
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bigmc
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« Reply #62 on: May 30, 2016, 09:00:49 AM »

The 'economists' calling for remain;

Did they predict the GFC?

Did they recommend the UK join the Euro

Do they believe in aliens?

they always get it wrong

truth is the economy is largely a lottery

its almost impossible to predict what will happen
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denarii
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« Reply #63 on: May 30, 2016, 01:35:32 PM »

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-30/brits-appalled-disgusted-brexit-postal-ballot-fraud


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-30/its-unbearable-50-year-old-german-woman-rages-i-have-lost-all-my-trust-state


Cameron is finished eitherway. I think Gove will win the Tory leadership contest.

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denarii
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« Reply #64 on: June 01, 2016, 03:24:07 AM »

The anti-Brexit Project Fear reached its zenith yesterday. Having published a paper suggesting GDP per household would fall by £4,300 in the long term (by 2030) if Britain left the EU, the Treasury yesterday turned its guns on the short-term implications of leaving.

And guess what? Research produced by a department run by a chancellor who thinks we should stay in the EU suggests the results of leaving would be very bad! If we vote to leave, we’d supposedly see a year-long mild recession, the economy 3.6 per cent smaller relative to remaining after two years, inflation higher, house prices lower, higher unemployment and a range of other bad outcomes.

As with the first lamentable Treasury offering, key to dismembering this biased account is working out the assumptions behind it. And here we do not need to dig long to find buried bodies. Essentially, the results are driven by three economic phenomena: people adjusting their spending and investment patterns because they expect Brexit to permanently lower their incomes, the near-term effects of uncertainty, and volatility in financial markets.

The first impact can be summed up quite easily as “rubbish in, rubbish out”. A large part of the result is driven by people reducing spending and investment because the Treasury assumes that the results of its long-term paper are correct (that we would be poorer than if we remain) and this changes behaviour now.

Read more: Osborne is entirely wrong: Voters would gain from Brexit

As outlined previously in this column, however, that Treasury paper was riddled with bizarre assumptions – not least that we would not adjust any regulatory policy or pursue more expansive trade when we had secured those freedoms outside the EU. This is particularly amusing, because just this weekend a leaked civil service document outlined how other member states made the EU a barrier to more free trade.

The first Treasury paper’s modelling methods were also extensively critiqued by our Economists for Brexit group – for relying on a range of economic associations with little theoretical underpinning and for being prone to extensive biases in the equations.

The short story is this: if you use the highly exaggerated negative long-term Treasury results then this effect on spending will be exaggerated in the short term too.

If, on the other hand, you presume that sensible policies on trade, migration, regulation and government spending are adopted and expected post-Brexit, and that as a result Brexit was beneficial to long-term performance (as papers by CEBR, Open Europe and Economists for Brexit have shown), then the short-term effect would in fact be an economic boost. The biggest threat of a negative impact happening from Brexit, therefore, is precisely the scaremongering of the Treasury and its effect on expectations.

Read more: The economic case against Brexit is collapsing

Of course, no sensible person on the Brexit side would suggest that there would be absolutely no uncertainty from leaving the EU. The Treasury is well within its rights to model that effect on investment and spending. There will be some short-term adjustment in the two years after Article 50 is triggered and an exit is negotiated (though during that time all current arrangements will remain in place and it would be in the interests of both parties to pursue a mutually-beneficial transition).

To a degree, therefore, Brexit will be a very short-term shock, the probability of which will already be factored in. But previous research by the OECD has shown that economies react better to shocks when they can adapt quickly – with independent macro policies, flexible labour market policies, a political system conducive to structural reform, and a liberal approach to trade. The UK fulfils these criteria and thus is much more resilient to shocks than, say, the Eurozone. In fact, Brexit would enable the UK to improve the economy’s institutional flexibility to future shocks further, as we would not be sucked into greater political union.

So the flipside of any short-term Brexit risks is a range of significant long-term opportunities. An opportunity to run a more expansive trade policy and exit the disastrous common agricultural and fisheries policies. An opportunity to reshape regulation to domestic circumstances. An opportunity to protect the City of London from Brussels’s regulatory zeal. And an opportunity to spend money better or cut taxes from any savings from our large gross contributions to Brussels.

Provided one trusts that the UK’s democratic processes will over time produce good policies in these areas, there is nothing to fear from the economics of Brexit and thus the Treasury’s results fall apart.

City A.M.'s opinion pages are a place for thought-provoking views and debate. These views are not necessarily shared by City A.M.
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Raymondo
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« Reply #65 on: June 02, 2016, 07:18:30 AM »

.


* 13343013_10153583223781700_7191057687738552268_n.jpg (46.47 KB, 480x360 - viewed 1194 times.)
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Griffith
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« Reply #66 on: June 07, 2016, 11:07:17 AM »

.

 Grin exactly.

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« Reply #67 on: June 08, 2016, 05:46:18 AM »

'Leave' and Brexit could lead to the Pound losing 20 % of its value or more. The same goes for property prices and that's excluding the devaluation of currency.

Furthermore, this is excluding the volatility that would be caused to the markets, even the US markets.

I really hope the UK remains part of Europe.
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denarii
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« Reply #68 on: June 09, 2016, 09:45:49 AM »

'Leave' and Brexit could lead to the Pound losing 20 % of its value or more. The same goes for property prices and that's excluding the devaluation of currency.

Furthermore, this is excluding the volatility that would be caused to the markets, even the US markets.

I really hope the UK remains part of Europe.

So assuming those forecasts are accurate. You don't want cheaper housing or more competitive  exports?
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Raymondo
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« Reply #69 on: June 09, 2016, 01:18:45 PM »

So assuming those forecasts are accurate. You don't want cheaper housing or more competitive  exports?

Do you want another recession?
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denarii
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« Reply #70 on: June 09, 2016, 03:13:59 PM »

Do you want another recession?

there is no factual evidence there will be a recession, merely assumptions put into regression models by a treasury being bullied by cameron and osbourne.

http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/the-treasurys-new-brexit-paper-rubbish-in-rubbish-out
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Griffith
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« Reply #71 on: June 10, 2016, 06:00:16 AM »

So assuming those forecasts are accurate. You don't want cheaper housing or more competitive  exports?

You don't mind paying more for everything, especially imported products, while earning the same?

You don't mind your life savings losing up to 20 % or more of its value internationally?

You don't mind losing your freedom of movement to live, work, study and travel anywhere in Europe?
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bigmc
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« Reply #72 on: June 10, 2016, 09:49:21 AM »

You don't mind paying more for everything, especially imported products, while earning the same?

You don't mind your life savings losing up to 20 % or more of its value internationally?

You don't mind losing your freedom of movement to live, work, study and travel anywhere in Europe?

the first two are speculation

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Raymondo
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« Reply #73 on: June 10, 2016, 10:04:18 AM »

the first two are speculation



Until new trade deals are worked out (which can take years, even decades) tariffs will be imposed, which means more expensive imports/less profitable exports by default.
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bigmc
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« Reply #74 on: June 10, 2016, 10:33:21 AM »

Until new trade deals are worked out (which can take years, even decades) tariffs will be imposed, which means more expensive imports/less profitable exports by default.

again speculation

we buy a lot of goods from europe

its not in their interest to fuck us off

you are guessing

everyone is guessing

the real decision is

is it better the devil we know

or go for the unknown
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