Author Topic: Investing and personal finance  (Read 349130 times)

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #450 on: December 07, 2024, 04:19:59 AM »

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #451 on: December 24, 2024, 03:21:37 AM »

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #452 on: December 24, 2024, 06:01:01 AM »


$4,000 dividends on a $205,000 portfolio is only a return of 2%.

1-2% dividend earning is what the S&P index earns.

Just investing in an S&P index fund provides equal or better rise in capital.


FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #453 on: January 03, 2025, 03:08:42 PM »
I agree, IroNat, but it is still interesting to hear other people's different perspectives on investing.

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #454 on: January 09, 2025, 07:59:28 AM »

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #455 on: February 15, 2025, 06:13:22 AM »

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #456 on: September 21, 2025, 01:00:30 AM »

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #457 on: September 21, 2025, 08:43:42 AM »
https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

"The Buffett Indicator
suggests that the US stock market is
Strongly Overvalued"

GymnJuice

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #458 on: September 24, 2025, 08:53:34 AM »
https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

"The Buffett Indicator
suggests that the US stock market is
Strongly Overvalued"

Boglehead philosophy is to continue investing in the same proportions regardless of predictions, correct?

So if you are 70% stocks, 30% bonds keep plugging in the same money as you were before.

Trying to time the market is discouraged. But if you were trying to time the market where would you park it? I keep mine in an MMA.

Humble Narcissist

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #459 on: September 24, 2025, 10:20:31 AM »
Boglehead philosophy is to continue investing in the same proportions regardless of predictions, correct?

So if you are 70% stocks, 30% bonds keep plugging in the same money as you were before.

Trying to time the market is discouraged. But if you were trying to time the market where would you park it? I keep mine in an MMA.
Lottery tickets. I'm on the West Virginia retirement plan.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #460 on: September 24, 2025, 12:06:08 PM »
Boglehead philosophy is to continue investing in the same proportions regardless of predictions, correct?

So if you are 70% stocks, 30% bonds keep plugging in the same money as you were before.

Trying to time the market is discouraged. But if you were trying to time the market where would you park it? I keep mine in an MMA.

Money market or something fixed income is about all you can do.

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #461 on: September 26, 2025, 11:42:04 PM »

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #462 on: September 29, 2025, 01:41:21 AM »

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #463 on: October 28, 2025, 10:31:44 AM »

GymnJuice

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #464 on: October 28, 2025, 02:15:03 PM »
Money market or something fixed income is about all you can do.

I looked into municipal bonds for the tax benefits. My tax advantaged accounts are already maxed out on regular bonds, and as I get older, I’m “supposed” to shift more into bonds. But I’m spooked about more cities going bankrupt even though its supposedly very rare.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #465 on: October 29, 2025, 04:52:54 AM »
I looked into municipal bonds for the tax benefits. My tax advantaged accounts are already maxed out on regular bonds, and as I get older, I’m “supposed” to shift more into bonds. But I’m spooked about more cities going bankrupt even though its supposedly very rare.

For tax free bonds you have to check if the generally lower rate of return you get with them makes sense.

The best time to buy bonds is in times of high interest rates.  Example would the 1980s.
Then if rates fall you get a gain in value because your higher rate bonds beat current lower rate bonds.

Buying them in a time of low interest rates means that when rates rise they lose value.  Not good.

For me bonds have never been good.  The returns have been awful.
I hold no bonds.

Treasurys are usually exempt from state income tax.  Check for your state.

Also consider investing in a taxable but tax efficient mutual fund.  An example is the Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity Index Fund.
It generates hardly any capital gains and only 1-2% dividends each year but you get the opportunity for capital appreciation.

Here's an idea I use to judge my risk exposure.
I call it the Black Swan Number.

[Equities (stocks) x 1/2] + Cash and Equivalents (cash, bonds, money markets, T-bills, CDs, etc.) = Black Swan Number

This number represents your position in case of a 50% stock market crash.
A 50% crash in stock values is not out of the question and has happened as recently as 2008-9.
If you can sleep comfortably with your Black Swan Number then you are in a good place.

You could have zero bonds if your equity holdings are large enough.
For example, if you own $20 million in stocks and they drop 50% you still have $10 million.
Hopefully you could live on that!

Just keep enough cash on hand for emergencies and expenses and so you don't need to fire-sale your stocks.

GymnJuice

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #466 on: October 30, 2025, 01:41:46 PM »
For tax free bonds you have to check if the generally lower rate of return you get with them makes sense.

The best time to buy bonds is in times of high interest rates.  Example would the 1980s.
Then if rates fall you get a gain in value because your higher rate bonds beat current lower rate bonds.

Buying them in a time of low interest rates means that when rates rise they lose value.  Not good.

For me bonds have never been good.  The returns have been awful.
I hold no bonds.

Treasurys are usually exempt from state income tax.  Check for your state.

Also consider investing in a taxable but tax efficient mutual fund.  An example is the Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity Index Fund.
It generates hardly any capital gains and only 1-2% dividends each year but you get the opportunity for capital appreciation.

Here's an idea I use to judge my risk exposure.
I call it the Black Swan Number.

[Equities (stocks) x 1/2] + Cash and Equivalents (cash, bonds, money markets, T-bills, CDs, etc.) = Black Swan Number

This number represents your position in case of a 50% stock market crash.
A 50% crash in stock values is not out of the question and has happened as recently as 2008-9.
If you can sleep comfortably with your Black Swan Number then you are in a good place.

You could have zero bonds if your equity holdings are large enough.
For example, if you own $20 million in stocks and they drop 50% you still have $10 million.
Hopefully you could live on that!

Just keep enough cash on hand for emergencies and expenses and so you don't need to fire-sale your stocks.

Thanks for your perspective. What do you do for your cash equivalents? MMA is good now but once the interest rates drop they won't be a good place to park it.

My understanding of the taxes are that the treasuries would be exempt from state taxes but not federal taxes, and the municipals are exempt from federal taxes (and state if in-state). Which is why I went down that rabbit hole.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #467 on: October 30, 2025, 04:08:49 PM »
Thanks for your perspective. What do you do for your cash equivalents? MMA is good now but once the interest rates drop they won't be a good place to park it.

My understanding of the taxes are that the treasuries would be exempt from state taxes but not federal taxes, and the municipals are exempt from federal taxes (and state if in-state). Which is why I went down that rabbit hole.

Federal Money Market Fund
Treasury Fund

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #468 on: November 01, 2025, 04:28:44 AM »

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #469 on: November 12, 2025, 08:41:30 AM »
Buying anabolic steroids, TRT, and other drugs is #21.




GymnJuice

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #470 on: November 14, 2025, 11:14:52 AM »
Buying anabolic steroids, TRT, and other drugs is #21.



Car is rightfully #1.

People need to be more frugal and intelligent with their purchases. Society doesn't facilitate this. I think if you don't learn it from your parents or someone else at a young age then you never get it.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #471 on: November 14, 2025, 01:33:10 PM »
Car is rightfully #1.

People need to be more frugal and intelligent with their purchases. Society doesn't facilitate this. I think if you don't learn it from your parents or someone else at a young age then you never get it.

Cars are indeed.

Nowadays with leasing, an expensive car is easily obtained.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #472 on: November 20, 2025, 08:02:48 AM »
Another interesting video.


FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #473 on: February 20, 2026, 10:00:03 PM »
Blue Owl $OWL is one of the most important players in the AI trade and most people are not paying attention to it.

$OWL is a private credit firm writing billion-dollar checks to finance the actual data center buildout.

When Meta, CoreWeave, or Crusoe need $10B+ to break ground on a campus, they can’t just issue corporate bonds without destroying their credit ratings. So they come to Blue Owl. OWL structures the deal, brings in institutional capital from pensions and insurers, and collects yield on long-duration debt backed by physical assets.

The deals are huge. $27B JV with Meta for the Hyperion campus in Louisiana, a $15B JV with Crusoe for a 1.2GW facility in Texas, and a $5B deal backing CoreWeave’s buildout. They now manage $273B in AUM.

So what’s going wrong?

$OWL is down ~55% over the past year and the firm that finances the AI buildout selling off this hard should raise eyebrows. The companies on the other side of their loans are carrying debt loads that would have been unthinkable two years ago. Oracle is sitting on $105B in debt, up $78B in a single year, just to fund AI campuses that won’t generate returns for years.

The entire structure only works if AI revenue materializes fast enough to service that debt. If it doesn’t, you’re not just looking at a tech correction, you’re looking at a credit event.

Blue Owl recently walked away from Oracle’s $10B Michigan campus over concerns about exactly this. When the firm that profits from saying yes starts saying no, red flags start to appear.

$OWL is a very important stock to watch as the AI buildout continues. The biggest question is whether or not these hyper scalers will be able to generate returns from datacenters and be able to pay back all of this debt.