UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump hold steady in virtual tie

[polychronopolous]

WASHINGTON, Aug. 23 (UPI) — The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Tuesday shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by less than 1 percentage point for a second consecutive day.

The online poll shows 47.98 for Clinton, compared to 47.24 for Trump.

Each candidate dropped two-tenths of a point in Tuesday’s poll, with the percentage of “others” increasing by four-tenths. “Others” in the poll are defined as respondents who decline to pick either Clinton or Trump.

The UPI/CVoter online tracking poll surveys about 200 people each day, leading to a sample size of roughly 1,400 people during any seven-day span.

Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated. The poll has a credibility interval of 3 percentage points. This seven-day span includes data collected from Aug. 15-21, when 1,795 individuals were surveyed. Of them, 1,259 identified themselves as likely voters.

[Las Vegas]

Need to look by state to see what's really happening.

[Las Vegas]

I heard Johnson is actually beginning to exceed Trump in some states.

[240 is Back]

I heard Johnson is actually beginning to exceed Trump in some states.

oh that'd be insane.  share any links you find.  would love to see that!

trump just went amnesty... that was the ONE thing that made him stand apart from gary johnson.   

now people see their positions are similar, but trump is erratic, emotional, inexperienced. 

[Las Vegas]

oh that'd be insane.  share any links you find.  would love to see that!

trump just went amnesty... that was the ONE thing that made him stand apart from gary johnson.   

now people see their positions are similar, but trump is erratic, emotional, inexperienced. 

I looked into it and no, it's just in certain categories and in very few states (Colorado and Utah afaik).  People say Trump's dangerous but imo this Johnson guy would be dangerous and weak -- and probably stoned, from what I hear.

[Las Vegas]

Though we must try to avoid oversimplifying, it’s easy to believe that the reason Johnson enjoys so much support in the state is for one key reason: both Colorado and Gary Johnson are big fans of weed. Just recently, Johnson bragged on network television that he hadn’t smoked weed in several weeks, an apparent anomaly for the candidate, worthy of mentioning. The 4/20-friendly state was bound to approve of the most weed-loving candidate on the ballot, and their support shows.

Unfortunately for Johnson, the ballot in Colorado does not currently include the Libertarian nominee, though the campaign is working to get his name added. If done in time, Johnson could steal a sizable chunk of support from both main party candidates, though evidence shows that he will hurt Trump the most.

[240 is Back]

Florida pollster called landlines only (Trump +2)


A recent outlier from Florida Atlantic University used an "IVR" methodology, also known as "robocalls", which are simply phone calls made to landlines (no cellphones).
This type of poll usually underestimate support for the most liberal candidate (in this case Clinton).

When I clicked on the pollster's media release, I found no mention of its methodology.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FAU_Florida_August.pdf

Feel free to email FAU at BEPI@fau.edu and ask why this pollster does not post the methodology.

My bet is that they are hiding the fact that they use a crappy methodology.    via DU