How China's tariffs on soybeans fueled the US GDP bumpThe U.S. economy grew 4.1% in the second quarter, partly due to a burst in soybean and corn exports, according to economists. In May, the latest data available, soybean exports nearly doubled compared to in April. Producers were in a rush to beat tit-for-tat sanctions, soybean exports are up 26% for the year compared to 2017.
In the second quarter, the U.S. recorded an 80% annualized jump in food, feed and beverage exports, mainly from soybeans and corn. Without that surge, exports would have increased 5.3% instead of 9.3%, which means the GDP growth would have been around 3.6%, according to Paul Ashworth, the chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
David Rosenberg, the
chief economist of Gluskin Sheff, argues trade disputes may play an even bigger role in inflating GDP. “At least half the growth is coming from two trade-related issues — a soybean-led export burst and inventory accumulation. Net these out and we remain near 2%”
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