Author Topic: Covid 19 - We are all screwed - discuss (Read 500718 times)

booty · « **Reply #2025 on:** March 24, 2020, 08:39:20 PM »

Quote from: Kwon on March 23, 2020, 01:43:30 PM

Australia and New Zealand now in Lockdown

New Zealand Yes but Australia not fully. They are still telling you to send kids to school. Gyms have been closed for at least 6 months. Last night they added beauty therapists and tattoo artist and other stuff to this ever growing list. However alcohol stores remain open as it’s deemed essential.

Jizmonkey · « **Reply #2026 on:** March 24, 2020, 08:45:53 PM »

Quote from: Moontrane on March 24, 2020, 07:46:49 PM

But...who's going to answer when I call American Express?

That made me think of how many scam calls I won’t be getting now. Pakistan next!

Army of One · « **Reply #2027 on:** March 25, 2020, 01:51:20 AM »

Humble Narcissist · « **Reply #2028 on:** March 25, 2020, 03:46:26 AM »

I don't live in that city.

m8 · « **Reply #2029 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:34:14 AM »

Quote from: Moontrane on March 24, 2020, 02:09:40 PM

Fatality rate by nation:
https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Germans are very robust people

obsidian · « **Reply #2030 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:39:30 AM »

Quote from: booty on March 24, 2020, 08:39:20 PM

New Zealand Yes but Australia not fully. They are still telling you to send kids to school. Gyms have been closed for at least 6 months. Last night they added beauty therapists and tattoo artist and other stuff to this ever growing list. However alcohol stores remain open as it’s deemed essential.

This sounds like an April fool's joke! 6 months?! I don't see that ever lasting - the public will revolt. It will have a huge impact on the economy and the health of many people who rely on the gym for cardiovascular health, mobility etc. They can instead develop a fast method to test for the coronavirus and screen everyone entering the gym. And make it mandatory to wipe down equipment with cleaners that will kill the virus.

Desolate · « **Reply #2031 on:** March 25, 2020, 11:25:19 AM »

Quote from: pellius on March 24, 2020, 04:15:57 PM

And you would follow the advice from Hilary.

Bottom line: We keep winning, you keep losing.

You're an idiot.

I'm a Trump guy, you moron.

My post was directed at dearth.

Learn to read.

Desolate · « **Reply #2032 on:** March 25, 2020, 11:28:37 AM »

And for the record, Fauci is Pro-Hillary and Anti-Trump.

Fauci Love Letter to Hillary Clinton Surfaces….

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/20/fauci-love-letter-to-hillary-clinton-surfaces/

joswift · « **Reply #2033 on:** March 25, 2020, 11:29:50 AM »

Quote from: m8 on March 25, 2020, 04:34:14 AM

Germans are very robust people

and they will have previous experience of mass cremations..

TheGrinch · « **Reply #2034 on:** March 25, 2020, 12:28:33 PM »

Garcetti ain't fckin around

Mayor Garcetti announces water and power will be shut off for nonessential L.A. businesses that don’t close

https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/mayor-garcetti-expected-to-hold-daily-briefing-on-l-a-s-covid-19-response/

NarcissisticDeity · « **Reply #2035 on:** March 25, 2020, 02:13:19 PM »

Army of One · « **Reply #2036 on:** March 25, 2020, 02:17:17 PM »

Quote from: NarcissisticDeity on March 25, 2020, 02:13:19 PM

Deeply flawed study by Oxford that is getting torn to shreds all over the world at this point.

Flexacon · « **Reply #2037 on:** March 25, 2020, 02:41:37 PM »

Quote from: Army of One on March 25, 2020, 02:17:17 PM

Deeply flawed study by Oxford that is getting torn to shreds all over the world at this point.

What about it is flawed?

Moontrane · « **Reply #2038 on:** March 25, 2020, 02:41:50 PM »

Quote from: TheGrinch on March 25, 2020, 12:28:33 PM

Garcetti ain't fckin around

Mayor Garcetti announces water and power will be shut off for nonessential L.A. businesses that don’t close

https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/mayor-garcetti-expected-to-hold-daily-briefing-on-l-a-s-covid-19-response/

While LA's homeless are still allowed to "shelter" in place.

Army of One · « **Reply #2039 on:** March 25, 2020, 02:53:28 PM »

Quote from: Flexacon on March 25, 2020, 02:41:37 PM

What about it is flawed?

https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavirus-hasnt-infected-more-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552

Twaddle · « **Reply #2040 on:** March 25, 2020, 02:55:11 PM »

Quote from: Flexacon on March 25, 2020, 02:41:37 PM

What about it is flawed?

Results

"Our overall approach rests on the assumption that only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness."

The entire study is based on an "assumption".

Teutonic Knight 1 · « **Reply #2041 on:** March 25, 2020, 03:04:57 PM »

Quote from: m8 on March 25, 2020, 04:34:14 AM

Germans are very robust people

Not today's generation, total softcocks

Flexacon · « **Reply #2042 on:** March 25, 2020, 03:08:58 PM »

Quote from: Army of One on March 25, 2020, 02:53:28 PM

https://medium.com/@gidmk/coronavirus-hasnt-infected-more-than-half-of-the-united-kingdom-50e4fba32552

It's a model. You need to assume the value of p (percentage of infected needing critical medical assistance)

They went with what looks like unrealistic percentages in their paper. 1% and 0.1% which gave headline grabbing outcomes/borderline fake news, but their model also mirrored the actual death rate data when p was 10% and 3%

You can't say it's flawed unless you know the actual value of p and are able to run the model against the actual figures of a country which didn't take any measures to slow down the virus

Mayday · « **Reply #2043 on:** March 25, 2020, 03:15:51 PM »

Quote from: booty on March 24, 2020, 08:39:20 PM

Gyms have been closed for at least 6 months.

Typo dude. Gyms only just closed

My gym shut on the 23rd March.

Army of One · « **Reply #2044 on:** March 25, 2020, 03:18:37 PM »

Quote from: Flexacon on March 25, 2020, 03:08:58 PM

It's a model. You need to assume the value of p (percentage of infected needing critical medical assistance)

They went with what looks like unrealistic percentages in their paper. 1% and 0.1% which gave headline grabbing outcomes/borderline fake news, but their model also mirrored the actual death rate data when p was 10% and 3%

You can't say it's flawed unless you know the actual value of p and are able to run the model against the actual figures of a country which didn't take any measures to slow down the virus

Most on the ground and most who deal with what stats we know, when the virus started showing hospitalisations, incubation, proportion shown to be infected to not when testing etc, believe it's flawed.Marbles in a jar, wisdom of the crowd etc.Dont get me wrong I'd love for it to be true, I'd happily take shit on here for being wrong if this would all be over soon as most have become immune.But nothing points to that.

Flexacon · « **Reply #2045 on:** March 25, 2020, 03:32:49 PM »

Quote from: Army of One on March 25, 2020, 03:18:37 PM

Most on the ground and most who deal with what stats we know, when the virus started showing hospitalisations, incubation, proportion shown to be infected to not when testing etc, believe it's flawed.Marbles in a jar, wisdom of the crowd etc.Dont get me wrong I'd love for it to be true, I'd happily take shit on here for being wrong if this would all be over soon as most have become immune.But nothing points to that.

There is no true or false with the actual paper. It's just a model. They even make a point in the paper that they didn't use plausible values for p when talking about herd immunity.

It's an interesting paper, but it's been presented at the wrong time and publicized in a horrible way. I wouldn't write off the model completely though. The middle ground between the Oxford and Imperial papers are likely where the reality is.

friedchickendinner · « **Reply #2046 on:** March 25, 2020, 03:39:01 PM »

So the US is 10 days into their 15 days to slow the spread.

665,424 infected - will pass both Italy and China before those 15 days are over.
+10,568 new cases - that's in ONE day.
1,411 in serious, critical condition.
928 total deaths.
+148 new deaths in ONE day.

Mayday · « **Reply #2047 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:00:36 PM »

And around 1/10th cases per million population of Switzerland and Italy.

This isn't aimed at you but i feel bad for Americans being made out like they are the problem in the world now (i am not in the US but this is how you are being portrayed now).

A number is meaningless without context.

US added 10k cases overnight on a population of 330M.

Look at all the european countries between 3% and 10% the size of the US and they are adding 3k- 7k per day.

Europe is spiralling and they are all getting sick at a much, much faster rate than the US. That should still be the main headline.

friedchickendinner · « **Reply #2048 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:18:44 PM »

I don't think the US is the problem of the world, but from what I understand they're behind some of those european countries, i.e. the worst is still to come.

Also some of those european countries are pretty big.

Italy is 60 million, Spain 47 million, Germany 83 million, France 67 million.

Teutonic Knight 1 · « **Reply #2049 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:23:29 PM »

Quote from: friedchickendinner on March 25, 2020, 04:18:44 PM

I don't think the US is the problem of the world, but from what I understand they're behind some of those european countries, i.e. the worst is still to come.

Also some of those european countries are pretty big.

Italy is 60 million, Spain 47 million, Germany 83 million, France 67 million.

Some sparky news: ambulances & cops don't go to Paris 'No Go Zones' populated by arabs