Author Topic: Covid 19 - We are all screwed - discuss  (Read 486880 times)

Army of One

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #25 on: February 22, 2020, 11:36:34 AM »
"Let's put the risk of dying by Coronavirus in perspective since there are so many misunderstandings about its connection to the influenza virus.

The CDC states that the death burden of influenza is roughly 61,000/45,000,000 infections. The fatality percentage of influenza is 0.13%.

The death burden of the Covid-19 is around 2% at the moment but may go up as SARS did after 2003

Let's do some quick math to determine how much more deadly, at a minimum, Covid-19 is compared to influenza virus.

0.02/0.0013= 15.[3846153846](tel:3846153846)

At a minimum, Coronavirus is 15.4 times deadlier than the Influenza Virus and twice as contagious; R-value of Coronavirus is 2.2-2.5 at the moment and may go higher based on incoming data and "The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19-1.37)"

Let's stop pretending that it is the equivalent of a common cold. It is a serious disease that spreads easily and often without symptoms.

Let's also put an end to the idea that the mortality rate should go down because "there are many more undiagnosed people unaccounted for". By the same logic, there are also many more Covid-19 deaths unaccounted for. And China is controlling the WHO numbers that get reported. China is also known to severely under report deaths of even influenza because of "pre-existing medical conditions" or pneumonia.They have been doing the same with Covid-19.

There are some people suggesting that the R-value of Covid-19 should go down because after the winter season. The minimum time it takes to show symptoms for Covid-19 is 2 days; some say 24 days. And it spreads throughout that entire incubation period. So you can easily pass it on without knowing that you have it.

Contrast that with Influenza:

"Symptoms can begin about 2 days (but can range from 1 to 4 days) after the virus enters the body. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick. Some people can be infected with the flu virus but have no symptoms. During this time, those people may still spread the virus to others."

1-4 days VS 2-24 days. Which will be more likely to spread?

The median incubation days for Covid-19 is 5.2 days and the mean incubation of Influenza is 2 days.

That's more than double the incubation time and suggests that the R-values for Covid-19 should go higher rather than lower.

Not to mention the possibility that Covid-19 is beginning to mutate, which means that you can get reinfected with a Covid-19 variant even if you do beat it the first time. And it could take 6+ years for development of a vaccine.

~20% of confirmed coronavirus cases have also required hospitalization and "life-saving measures"."

joswift

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #26 on: February 22, 2020, 11:41:55 AM »
in the 2017/2018 flu season, 28,000 people in the UK alone died from flu...

Army of One

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #27 on: February 22, 2020, 11:45:26 AM »
in the 2017/2018 flu season, 28,000 people in the UK alone died from flu...

Yup.Imagine that number x30 or 40...or worse....


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8032385/Coronavirus-experts-say-NOT-rising-numbers-infections-fear.html

joswift

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #28 on: February 22, 2020, 11:47:13 AM »
Yup.Imagine that number x30 or 40...or worse....


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8032385/Coronavirus-experts-say-NOT-rising-numbers-infections-fear.html

it wont be....its a flu virus, nothing more.....

I still have no idea why so many people buy into this fear mongering that keeps happening every few years, remember when HIV was going to wipe out the entire planet?

Army of One

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #29 on: February 22, 2020, 11:53:54 AM »
it wont be....its a flu virus, nothing more.....

I still have no idea why so many people buy into this fear mongering that keeps happening every few years, remember when HIV was going to wipe out the entire planet?

A flu virus that's just twice as contagious as flu but 20-100x more deadly?That's unheard of.Every outbreak of a virus before in recent history has either been high mortality rate but hard to transmit, or easy to transmit and low mortality rate.This is both easy to transmit and has a high mortality rate.Comparing it to the common flu at this point is retarded.


SF1900

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #30 on: February 22, 2020, 12:00:46 PM »
Army of One spends way too much time on the internet, being scared about everything.

All fear mongering.
X

Army of One

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #31 on: February 22, 2020, 12:04:17 PM »
Army of One spends way too much time on the internet, being scared about everything.

All fear mongering.

If the stats are saying it's twice as contagious as the common flu but 20-100x more deadly, how is that fear mongering?It's logical that the 30k British deaths from flu in a year could be 400-500k or more deaths from Coronovirus.Its all but officially being called a Pandemic now.

joswift

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #32 on: February 22, 2020, 12:08:36 PM »
A flu virus that's just twice as contagious as flu but 20-100x more deadly?That's unheard of.Every outbreak of a virus before in recent history has either been high mortality rate but hard to transmit, or easy to transmit and low mortality rate.This is both easy to transmit and has a high mortality rate.Comparing it to the common flu at this point is retarded.



Apparently anyone who had sex with one person automatically had sex with all their previous partners as well, dont you remember the AIDS scare?

They had everyone shitting themselves for months...

If this is genuine then all the previews "wolf cries" in the past are misleading people.

Heard a scientist on the radio the other day talking about how they have genetically enginerred the "Spanish Flu" virus from an unearthed frozen corpse.

Seriously, why the fuck would you want to recreate a virus that killed millions of people when it was extinct.

Maybe spread it around when people start getting comfortable and complacent?

oldtimer1

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #33 on: February 22, 2020, 12:09:13 PM »
Anyone believe the stats coming from Chinese sources?  It must be really high and super contagious for them to be taking such drastic action.

joswift

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #34 on: February 22, 2020, 12:12:15 PM »
so in China there have been almost 76,000 cases, 2,200 deaths and 18,000 recovered?

So have all the other people still got it?

Think about these stats, they would be changing by the second, they are just made up on the spot like 99.9% of all stats

Flexacon

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #35 on: February 22, 2020, 12:18:23 PM »
We need to start a go fund me for Army of one and buy him one of these.


Army of One

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2020, 12:19:30 PM »
so in China there have been almost 76,000 cases, 2,200 deaths and 18,000 recovered?

So have all the other people still got it?

Think about these stats, they would be changing by the second, they are just made up on the spot like 99.9% of all stats

All accounts from China that are not from official Chinese sources are painting a far worse picture than those official stats.

Dave D

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #37 on: February 22, 2020, 12:27:20 PM »
so in China there have been almost 76,000 cases, 2,200 deaths and 18,000 recovered?

So have all the other people still got it?

Think about these stats, they would be changing by the second, they are just made up on the spot like 99.9% of all stats

All accounts from China that are not from official Chinese sources are painting a far worse picture than those official stats.

Army can't reason or see any other viewpoint than his own.

The Chinese are lying and we have the stats to prove it!

Judge them by their actions, they're wearing masks and washing their hands.

joswift

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #38 on: February 22, 2020, 01:47:51 PM »
All accounts from China that are not from official Chinese sources are painting a far worse picture than those official stats.

Yes, we know those "chinks" cant be trusted

You never know, after all the success of China in recent years it may even be a deliberate act by a foreign power to create disharmony in the country

Twaddle

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #39 on: February 22, 2020, 01:50:32 PM »
This guy is famous for being the least alarmist and most conservative doc/expert around.he just said we are officially in a pandemic and to prepare.He is saying the mortality rate in Iran is way higher than the 2% the Chinese are reporting.20% apparently will be seriously ill from it.Our hospitals struggle with a busy Monday morning, can you imagine the riots that will be happening when 50-100x people want care/beds than the hospitals are able to provide?When they are literally turning away the dying by the thousands?Our infrastructure will collapse.Swine flu or influenza has a mortality rate of 0.02%, this has a mortality rate of over 2%, that's over ONE HUNDRED TIMES MORE DEADLY, and looks to spread just as easily.The fact this guy's friends in Iran are begging this guy to get the word out how serious this is, and how much deadlier it seems to be in Iran, raises the possibility it may have already mutated in to something more deadly.





Why should we listen to anything this old fart has to say?  He's not an expert on epidemiology.  He's a Nurse Teacher (whatever the fuck that means).  Basically, he's reading articles, and then making youtube videos about what he's read.   ???

Humble Narcissist

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #40 on: February 22, 2020, 01:56:53 PM »
it wont be....its a flu virus, nothing more.....

I still have no idea why so many people buy into this fear mongering that keeps happening every few years, remember when HIV was going to wipe out the entire planet?
And ebola....and swine flu....mad cow disease.....and etc.  Every year we are hit with a new doom and gloom virus that blows over shortly after.

Army of One

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #41 on: February 22, 2020, 02:00:01 PM »
And ebola....and swine flu....mad cow disease.....and etc.  Every year we are hit with a new doom and gloom virus that blows over shortly after.

I had zero worry about any of them.They either had such a low probability of death or were contained/ too hard to spread.This is neither.

joswift

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #42 on: February 22, 2020, 02:01:32 PM »
I had zero worry about any of them.They either had such a low probability of death or were contained/ too hard to spread.This is neither.

You are aware that you will be OK aren't you?

robcguns

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #43 on: February 22, 2020, 02:24:32 PM »

Flexacon

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #44 on: February 22, 2020, 02:32:23 PM »
Why should we listen to anything this old fart has to say?  He's not an expert on epidemiology.  He's a Nurse Teacher (whatever the fuck that means).  Basically, he's reading articles, and then making youtube videos about what he's read.   ???

It appears you are correct. Whilst I'm sure he is an intelligent man, calling him a "doc/expert" is a bit of a stretch. He isn't a medical doctor and is as much an expert on this subject as anyone posting on here.

Army of One

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #45 on: February 22, 2020, 02:38:27 PM »
You are aware that you will be OK aren't you?

Again, it's the infrastructure and panic I'm worried about.We go in to recessions due to doomy forecasts or a few % drops in housing, stocks etc.What do you think a virus like this would do if it truly catches hold?You'd be talking about a scenario that the developed West has never experienced.

Griffith

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #46 on: February 22, 2020, 02:42:11 PM »
Singapore is now outright banning anyone from entering the country who has been in mainland China the past two weeks.

Basically they have banned all mainland Chinese. Very few Chinese tourists anywhere at the moment.

A great time to travel.


fredrollon

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #47 on: February 22, 2020, 02:42:29 PM »
so in China there have been almost 76,000 cases, 2,200 deaths and 18,000 recovered?

So have all the other people still got it?

Think about these stats, they would be changing by the second, they are just made up on the spot like 99.9% of all stats

China has around 1.4 billion people.

Even if your stats are out by a factor of 100 , just around 0.5% (1 in 200) of China's populace  will have gotten infected.

joswift

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #48 on: February 22, 2020, 02:43:30 PM »
Again, it's the infrastructure and panic I'm worried about.We go in to recessions due to doomy forecasts or a few % drops in housing, stocks etc.What do you think a virus like this would do if it truly catches hold?You'd be talking about a scenario that the developed West has never experienced.

we have experienced lots of things that we dealt with...

Seems the best course of action always seems to be do nothing at all....

Dave D

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Re: Coronovirus, we are all screwed
« Reply #49 on: February 22, 2020, 02:43:39 PM »
It appears you are correct. Whilst I'm sure he is an intelligent man, calling him a "doc/expert" is a bit of a stretch. He isn't a medical doctor and is as much an expert on this subject as anyone posting on here.

What? This doctor is famous for being conservative with his opinions on disease. A quick google search determines he has changed his mind  and we should be concerned because of this.

Chances are if you’re reading this you’re already infected.