Getbig PHD Economists, help explain something to me.

[Humble Narcissist]

who says they will ever stop QE

Eventually they will have to or the country will be a quadrillion dollars in debt.

[Mayday]

Do economists truly claim we are in a recession? Unemployment is my own personal measure of recession and it is between 5 and 6 percent (not outstanding, but not bad). Housing and stock market very positive, as stated above. Poverty reduced (temporarily) through all the COVID money. Manufacturing picking up. I may be the only one, but I say we are in a pretty decent economic uptick. But whether it will last is anybody’s guess.

If you figure that to keep unemployment where it is it cost 30% of GDP then sure, it's a pretty decent economic uptick.

Eventually they will have to or the country will be a quadrillion dollars in debt.

Not when you monetise the debt. Americans need to remember we all peg to the USD meaning we are all printing. It means fuck all when everybody is printing at the same time because nobody gains a cost advantage.

If we have 100 Humble Bucks and 100 Mayday bucks and we both print 100 more bucks each, neither of us gets an advantage yet we doubled out money supply.

QE will not stop until after hyperinflation. They are keeping the gas pedal floored and we can understand why given during the Great Depression the biggest mistake they made was backing off the throttle. Keep it pinned until you are waaaaaay past the danger zone.

[mphgrove]

Yes. The simple answer is that we are in an inflationary depression. That is where the economy gets worse because the currency rapidly devalues, everything becomes more expensive without people getting richer, and people lose faith in the system.

The other kind of depression with which Americans are most familiar is a deflationary depression. That is where the value of money stays the same or even increases, but there is no optimism in the system, so people don't want to hire, work, innovate, create new wealth, etc. Everything loses value and the economy as a whole becomes worth less.

They are really two sides of the same coin. You get an inflationary depression like we have when governments and banks try to plug the leak with fiat money.

So I do not really understand the “inflationary depression” argument but it sounds like you have thought this through. In that type scenario, where is best to have your savings?
Cash and gold?
Bonds (not looking good at the moment)
Real estate?
Stocks?

Heavily in stocks and real estate here, but try to keep a balance. The only components that give solid day to day income are bonds and real estate (and some preferred or high dividend stocks with nothing much to back them up in a severe downturn).

[SOMEPARTS]

If you figure that to keep unemployment where it is it cost 30% of GDP then sure, it's a pretty decent economic uptick.

Not when you monetise the debt. Americans need to remember we all peg to the USD meaning we are all printing. It means fuck all when everybody is printing at the same time because nobody gains a cost advantage.

If we have 100 Humble Bucks and 100 Mayday bucks and we both print 100 more bucks each, neither of us gets an advantage yet we doubled out money supply.

QE will not stop until after hyperinflation. They are keeping the gas pedal floored and we can understand why given during the Great Depression the biggest mistake they made was backing off the throttle. Keep it pinned until you are waaaaaay past the danger zone.

What's crazy is they count the printing as GDP yet things are so off on numbers the NY Fed suspended their GDP charts last week.

Nobody knows what is going to happen but I can say that I have 10-20% increases at the manufacturer level in my business this quarter and that is highly deflationary for my sales unless they keep sending money direct to consumers. The printed money is sloshing around at the top 1% and it's not working other than goosing the markets and valuations on housing. Those things are transient and require future buyers to keep it going. Even low rates can't fix no income/ability to pay.

[mphgrove]

What's crazy is they count the printing as GDP yet things are so off on numbers the NY Fed suspended their GDP charts last week.

Nobody knows what is going to happen but I can say that I have 10-20% increases at the manufacturer level in my business this quarter and that is highly deflationary for my sales unless they keep sending money direct to consumers. The printed money is sloshing around at the top 1% and it's not working other than goosing the markets and valuations on housing. Those things are transient and require future buyers to keep it going. Even low rates can't fix no income/ability to pay.

Interesting about sloshing around at the top, and I do not disagree. But here is a counter perspective. My household has two people: one who mainly lives on slosh around investment funds and the other who is a server in a restaurant. Both individuals are doing well right now. I don’t want to discount what you are saying (for one, because of concerns about inequality) but when I see help wanted signs everywhere, I can’t help but think that wages will pump up sooner or later.

[SOMEPARTS]

Interesting about sloshing around at the top, and I do not disagree. But here is a counter perspective. My household has two people: one who mainly lives on slosh around investment funds and the other who is a server in a restaurant. Both individuals are doing well right now. I don’t want to discount what you are saying (for one, because of concerns about inequality) but when I see help wanted signs everywhere, I can’t help but think that wages will pump up sooner or later.

The help wanted signs are for jobs that will never pay for a boomer mc mansion or the lifestyle that many of those same people were raised in. No offense to anyone in a service sector but those are low skill low pay jobs, period end of story. Nobody at Amazon or Mc Donald's will ever make 60k in today's money value and that is barely enough to have a decent car and apt. Yes, I know servers can make good money...when they are 25 and hot, haha.

We are at all time low rates, all time stock market and housing price highs....but something is off - unless this is to go on forever artificially...those things will change. Are normal people able to absorb those changes with their own equity and earning power?

I mean, I see the help wanted signs, the temp tags on new cars, the houses up 50% over last year....but does anyone think it will be forever bull and different this time? I just don't.

[mphgrove]

These markets can run up for years.  If you stay in cash inflation will kill you.

Another factor is US vs. rest of world, although we could easily all go down together. Remember back in the day when our stock brokers wanted to make sure that we had some of our funds in developing markets (Brazil, India, Asia). I don’t hear an ounce of that talk any more. Also, look at the people in Lebanon (in crisis) begging to take a few US dollars out of their bank accounts. Lebanon is on the completely opposite end of the planet.

[IroNat]

Another factor is US vs. rest of world, although we could easily all go down together. Remember back in the day when our stock brokers wanted to make sure that we had some of our funds in developing markets (Brazil, India, Asia). I don’t hear an ounce of that talk any more. Also, look at the people in Lebanon (in crisis) begging to take a few US dollars out of their bank accounts. Lebanon is on the completely opposite end of the planet.

Good points.

[TheGrinch]

Nothing to see here folks, please move along


https://www.bitchute.com/video/WYzX8uLACk77/

This disturbing video reveals that two investment firms, BlackRock and Vanguard, own big pharma, big media, and just about everything else you can think of! They have ownership in 1,600 American firms, and control over $9-trillion in assets. The 1% owns more than the 99%. 82% of all earned money in 2017 went to this 1%, somewhat like a massive company store. Vanguard is the largest shareholder of BlackRock. Vanguard is privately owned, so it is difficult to discern the individual owners, but it is linked to many of the oldest, richest families, including the Rothschilds, the Orsini family, the Bush family, the British Royal family, the DuPont family, the Morgans, Vanderbilts and Rockefeller

[IroNat]

Nothing to see here folks, please move along


https://www.bitchute.com/video/WYzX8uLACk77/

This disturbing video reveals that two investment firms, BlackRock and Vanguard, own big pharma, big media, and just about everything else you can think of! They have ownership in 1,600 American firms, and control over $9-trillion in assets. The 1% owns more than the 99%. 82% of all earned money in 2017 went to this 1%, somewhat like a massive company store. Vanguard is the largest shareholder of BlackRock. Vanguard is privately owned, so it is difficult to discern the individual owners, but it is linked to many of the oldest, richest families, including the Rothschilds, the Orsini family, the Bush family, the British Royal family, the DuPont family, the Morgans, Vanderbilts and Rockefeller

Vaguard's Total Stock Market Index is one of largest, if not the largest investment funds on the planet.

But it just buys an index which is based on the largest capitalization companies.  No mystery and no secret cabals there.

Naturally, wealthy people 1%ers such as Getbiggers are invested in these companies also.

[TheGrinch]

Eventually they will have to or the country will be a quadrillion dollars in debt.

So everything is going to crash one day?


How does one invest to benefit from this?

[TheGrinch]

Vaguard's Total Stock Market Index is one of largest, if not the largest investment funds on the planet.

But it just buys an index which is based on the largest capitalization companies.  No mystery and no secret cabals there.

Naturally, wealthy people 1%ers such as Getbiggers are invested in these companies also.

No, they actually OWN the stock.

Check the largest shareholders of the largest corps

[oldtimer1]

I said it before. When inflation hits the only ones that make out are the home owners as their investment traditionally increases in value. It's only a homerun if you want to down size say to a little retirement ranch. The stock market will keep running high but even that can't withstand inflation when the US is printing money to spend that it doesn't have as tax revenue. Many investors are waiting for the big panic sell off. Might be a year or two away.

[IroNat]

No, they actually OWN the stock.

Check the largest shareholders of the largest corps

I may be misunderstanding you but yes, rich people own stock in these companies.  I own stocks in these companies via mutual funds.  But even the weathiest individuals own personally very small % of these corporations.  The exceptions would be the Walton family who together just under 50% of WalMart, an amount sufficient to control decision making, or founders of companies who have been able to retain large holdings (hard to do with public corporations).  Why should they not?

Warren Buffett owns a large % of Bershire Hathaway, 30-40%.  It is his company.

Bill Gates owns a very small % of Microsoft stock, less than 1%.

The largest owners of stocks are institutional investors like pension funds, insurance companies, and investment funds.

A Vanguard index fund buys quantities of a company's stock based on its capitalization value to the index in question.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/052416/top-3-exxon-mobil-shareholders-xom.asp

Exxon

"Top 3 Individual Insider Shareholders

Andrew P. Swiger

Andrew Swiger owns a total of 1.2 million ExxonMobil shares, representing 0.03% of the company's total shares outstanding.4 Swiger has been a senior vice president since 2009 and principal financial officer since 2013. Prior to that, he served as president of ExxonMobil Gas & Power Marketing between 2006 and 2009, and as executive vice president of ExxonMobil Production Co. from 2004 to 2006. Swiger has served in various other roles since he first joined the company in 1978 as an operations engineer.

Darren W. Woods

Darren Woods owns a total of 1.0 million ExxonMobil shares, representing 0.02% of the company's total shares outstanding.4 Woods is chair and chief executive officer (CEO), roles he has held since January 1, 2017. Prior to that, he served as president and as a member of the board of directors after being elected to those roles in January 2016. He served as senior vice president between 2014 and 2016, and as company vice president and as president of ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Co. from 2012 to 2014. Woods has served in numerous other roles for the company since first joining Exxon Co. International in 1992 as a planning analyst.

Neil W. Duffin

Neil W. Duffin owns a total of 627.8 thousand ExxonMobil shares, representing 0.01% of the company's total shares outstanding.4 Duffin is president of ExxonMobil Global Projects Co., a role he has held since January 1, 2017. He also was appointed vice president of the company at that time. Prior to that, he served in a number of roles, including as president of ExxonMobil Development Co., and as vice president of ExxonMobil Production Co. Duffin joined Mobil Oil Corp. in 1979, which later merged with Exxon to become ExxonMobil.

Top 3 Institutional Shareholders

Institutional investors hold more than 51% of ExxonMobil's total shares outstanding.5

Vanguard Group Inc.

Vanguard Group owns 344.4 million shares of ExxonMobil, representing 8.1% of total shares outstanding as of February 26, 2021.6 The company is primarily a mutual fund and ETF management company with about $6.2 trillion in global assets under management (AUM) as of January 2021. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is one of the company's largest ETFs with about $199 billion in AUM.7 ExxonMobil comprises less than 0.6% of VOO's holdings.8

BlackRock Inc.

BlackRock owns 277.5 million shares of ExxonMobil, representing 6.6% of total shares outstanding, as of February 5, 2021.9 The company is primarily a mutual fund and ETF management company with approximately $8.68 trillion in AUM. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) is among one of BlackRock's largest ETFs with approximately $254 billion in AUM. ExxonMobil comprises about 0.3% of IVV's holdings.10

State Street Corp.

State Street owns 241.5 million shares of ExxonMobil, representing 5.7% of total shares outstanding as of February 26, 2021.6 The company is primarily a manager of mutual funds, ETFs, and other assets with approximately $3.5 trillion in AUM. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is among one of State Street's largest ETFs with approximately $339 billion in AUM. ExxonMobil comprises 0.7% of SPY's total holdings1111

[Campeon Del Mundo]

who says they will ever stop QE

LOL good point there bro ... hehe maybe they will print the dollar into oblivion..

[IroNat]

A steady rate of moderate to low inflation is desirable.  Increases in the money supply are also desirable.

When either gets out of control it is not desirable.

[TheGrinch]

LOL good point there bro ... hehe maybe they will print the dollar into oblivion..

I heard a long long time ago that since China basically owns the US debt that the Fed wanted to pay back China one day with worthless dollars


No clue what that means other than currency devaluation

[Humble Narcissist]

So everything is going to crash one day?


How does one invest to benefit from this?

Invest in paying off your house out in the country, a 1 year supply of food, solar generators, guns and ammo.

[mphgrove]

A steady rate of moderate to low inflation is desirable.  Increases in the money supply are also desirable.

When either gets out of control it is not desirable.

True, but things can and do go wrong. Witness the out of control inflation and interest rates under President Carter and the severe liquidity defaults under President Bush (I still see a defaulted Lehman Brothers instrument on my monthly brokerage statement this many years later). Are you confident that our monetary and fiscal authorities now have this figured out? And if it all goes south, is real estate the best place to be (as one poster said above)?

[IroNat]

True, but things can and do go wrong. Witness the out of control inflation and interest rates under President Carter and the severe liquidity defaults under President Bush (I still see a defaulted Lehman Brothers instrument on my monthly brokerage statement this many years later). Are you confident that our monetary and fiscal authorities now have this figured out? And if it all goes south, is real estate the best place to be (as one poster said above)?

All good points.

[IroNat]

I heard a long long time ago that since China basically owns the US debt that the Fed wanted to pay back China one day with worthless dollars


No clue what that means other than currency devaluation

It means a dollar today is worth more (buying power) than a dollar ten years from now.

So, if I can pay you back what I owe you 1-for-1 with future dollars that are worth less then I make out.

So, borrowing money during inflationary times is better than in low inflation times, especially if the inflation rate exceeds the borrowing rate.

So, we borrow money from China at 2% and inflation is 5% and pay them back with cheaper dollars.

[Humble Narcissist]

It means a dollar today is worth more (buying power) than a dollar ten years from now.

So, if I can pay you back what I owe you 1-for-1 with future dollars that are worth less then I make out.

So, borrowing money during inflationary times is better than in low inflation times, especially if the inflation rate exceeds the borrowing rate.

So, we borrow money from China at 2% and inflation is 5% and pay them back with cheaper dollars.

This would actually be a benefit of hyperinflation.

[IroNat]

This would actually be a benefit of hyperinflation.

That would be really bad though.

[Humble Narcissist]

That would be really bad though.

It would be unless they rolled out a new currency right after they paid all the debt with worthless dollars.  The Amero?