Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA

[funk51]

I think I am surrounded by the 30% in NYC who still approve of this idiot  and his cabal of freaks.

   then you should get this shirt and also one of these
 

[OneMoreRep]

That shirt would cause many meltdowns on the upper Westside of Manhattan and Williamsburg Brooklyn.😂😂😂

By upper west side, how upper are we talking? West End territory from 72nd to 96st BTW Broadway and Riverside (i.e. super liberal and well off white brethren with sprinkled in affluent Asian and Indian subtypes) OR UPPER MANHATTAN which becomes Dominican'ville mixed in with scattered showers of hippie whites that attend Columbia University and City College?

Shit changes by minor gradients throughout Manhattan. I sometimes go up UP to Washington Heights, as I have a cousin that attends Yeshiva University, but that's an isolated little territory and Jews get passed (are allowed) through the Dominican and Puerto Rican infantry that guard those parts.

Williamsburg is filled with hippies that go showerless as a sport.

The hippies would hate you for wearing that shirt, whereas the Hispanics and blacks wouldn't give a shit.

"1"

[El Diablo Blanco]

Do I need a math degree?

The average monthly rent for a Manhattan apartment surpassed $5,000 for the first time — and brokers say demand and prices are headed even higher into the fall.

The average apartment rent in June was $5,058, the highest on record, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Average rental prices were up 29% over last year, while median rent was up by 25% to $4,050 a month.

Aside from pricing out many renters, the increases could have knock-on effects amid broader inflation pressures. Rents are a key component of the government’s consumer price index, which increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, and New York is the nation’s largest rental market.



How is it that everything is up 30-50% yet inflation is 9.1%?  WTF am I missing?

But wait, they are saying that inflation is up 9.1% from last June but not overall post covid.  So in reality it is probably double or triple that

[tommywishbone]

Bullshit number.  Inflation is way higher but the gov won't admit it. Let's do some basic math.

Gas is up 100%, Housing is up 50%, rent is up 70%, food is up over 50%.  How the fuck does this average out to 9.1%?

Don't forget the US dollar that used to be 1.30 USD to 1 Euro is now 1-1.  So yeah. 9% my ass.

We have a bingo.

[loco]

Do I need a math degree?

The average monthly rent for a Manhattan apartment surpassed $5,000 for the first time — and brokers say

No, but you need a Biology degree to say whether these brokers are women.

[OneMoreRep]

Do I need a math degree?

The average monthly rent for a Manhattan apartment surpassed $5,000 for the first time — and brokers say demand and prices are headed even higher into the fall.

The average apartment rent in June was $5,058, the highest on record, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Average rental prices were up 29% over last year, while median rent was up by 25% to $4,050 a month.

Aside from pricing out many renters, the increases could have knock-on effects amid broader inflation pressures. Rents are a key component of the government’s consumer price index, which increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, and New York is the nation’s largest rental market.

How is it that everything is up 30-50% yet inflation is 9.1%?  WTF am I missing?

But wait, they are saying that inflation is up 9.1% from last June but not overall post covid.  So in reality it is probably double or triple that

You're not wrong to suspect that the inflation rate of 9.1% is likely artificially lowered.

Two things contribute to this, the new formula we use to calculate CPI as compared to the 1980's make the CPI calculation severely undercalculated. Many believe this was done purposely to keep the public from losing their shit. If I were to use the old formula to calculate CPI, the real rate would actually be around 18-20%.

In terms of how they calculate average rents into the CPI, they take an average that's sampled over a 6 month period. Whether or not they have calculated the last 6 months (Jan-Jun) and included it into the current CPI, I am not sure. Even the sample they use to calculate average rents into the CPI is outdated. They sample about 50,000 shelter/rental residences. Out of 330 Million Americans, that is a very small sample number.

Anywho, all fingers point towards us running into a steaming pile of shit sooner or later.

"1"

[Thin Lizzy]

By upper west side, how upper are we talking? West End territory from 72nd to 96st BTW Broadway and Riverside (i.e. super liberal and well off white brethren with sprinkled in affluent Asian and Indian subtypes) OR UPPER MANHATTAN which becomes Dominican'ville mixed in with scattered showers of hippie whites that attend Columbia University and City College?

Shit changes by minor gradients throughout Manhattan. I sometimes go up UP to Washington Heights, as I have a cousin that attends Yeshiva University, but that's an isolated little territory and Jews get passed (are allowed) through the Dominican and Puerto Rican infantry that guard those parts.

Williamsburg is filled with hippies that go showerless as a sport.

The hippies would hate you for wearing that shirt, whereas the Hispanics and blacks wouldn't give a shit.

"1"

We’re talking about white liberals who can dish it out but can’t take it. Hispanics wouldn’t give a shit one way or the other.

[Mayday]

The money printing/debt monetization is just disgusting. Over the last two years, the US Federal Reserve has printed 80% of all US dollars in existence. That's just unheard of and truly a very sophisticated parlor trick meant to keep us from falling from recession, to stagflation and/or possibly a harsh depression. Granted, they will lean on the money printing coupled with lowering rates to 0% as the only 2 mechanisms the FED truly had to save a flailing economy during the inception of COVID that was followed by a 1-1.5yr economic winter. That theory seems more likely by design at this point (at least in my mind).

I read the most recent jobs report and, I have to say, I'm not buying it. It looks more as if the average American is now holding up 2 jobs at a time in order to stay above water, which is artificially making it seem as if our unemployment rate is going down. When in reality, the percentage of Americans entering the labor force hasn't really gone up, that percentage has remained stagnant. I think that sooner or later, we will see the real unemployment numbers rear their ugly heads and that's when stagflation will hit with a vengeance.

I think Q4 will be very interesting to see unfold. If I had to bet, I'd say it will be disastrous.

"1"

I think a challenge for us average people is everything the central banks do or govt do is perceived as wrong and nobody knows what they are doing. Look over the history and everything the Fed ever did was apparently wrong….. then look at the wealth gap…..  Politicians enter govt on 100k/yr and retire with 80M in the bank, if they don’t know what they are doing it’s a little ironic it just happens to always fall in their favour.

The job data is real. Chuck in 6yrs worth of money printing, add more boomers retiring, add 6yrs of demand, add a pandemic, add work from home and you can understand we have a plethora of things all pushing towards huge inflationary pressure. The job market is crazy strong here despite recession fears, huge wage inflation pressure.

Look over money supply history and we see multiple 5yr cycles of monetisation of debt. US money supply was 21.5T end of 2021 and in June it’s 21.7T so despite all this sell off and crash talk the money supply is not declining.

The other argument with rates to go up and stay up is the DXY is wrecking a number of countries. Right when the Fed should reduce rates they are looking to go 1% this month….. this is going to annihilate a number of currencies as people flood to the USD.  Perhaps The US instead of dropping rates does stimmy over the top to keep that currency pressure going.

[Mayday]

And here you have it…..

ECB to introduce the Transmission Protection Mechanism.

Rates go up and stimmy is going to go in over the top.

[TheGrinch]

Right when the Fed should reduce rates they are looking to go 1% this month….. this is going to annihilate a number of currencies as people flood to the USD.  Perhaps The US instead of dropping rates does stimmy over the top to keep that currency pressure going.

reduce rates to cause even MORE inflation?


I don't understand why the move to the USD?


Inflation of the USD via money printing and stimulous theoretically should WEAKEN the dollar

[Thin Lizzy]

reduce rates to cause even MORE inflation?


I don't understand why the move to the USD?


Inflation of the USD via money printing and stimulous theoretically should WEAKEN the dollar

This is the real problem and they all know it:

[Thin Lizzy]

Another good one:

[Mayday]

reduce rates to cause even MORE inflation?


I don't understand why the move to the USD?


Inflation of the USD via money printing and stimulous theoretically should WEAKEN the dollar

This is the catch 22 for today’s world where we have jobs and demand going awesome but inflation going bananas. The Fed raises rates using unemployment as a guide but we haven’t seen it crack yet they are just putting huge pressure on homeowners and debt holders.

Keep in mind this is the fastest hike of rates in history. We were living on 0.25% and it’s going to 3.5% inside 1yr. In the past people had interest rates double, today it’s 10x+.The risk now becomes collapse.

Re the move to USD is inflation broke a few countries so it’s a flight to safety and now rising rates attracts Buyers of USD aswell. You have an inflow from other countries wrecked by inflation as they want to hold something stable to protect purchasing power. Just when the US should back off it looks like they will do their largest increase yet of 1% and kick these countries in the guts one last time and attract even more buyers of USD for interest..

It’s economic warefare. Everything is extreme which is not normal behaviour.

[Thin Lizzy]

Not so fast on the jobs. It’s a lagging indicator. First comes the slowdown of hiring then the layoffs:



Google says it will slow hiring through 2023 in memo to employees

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/12/google-says-it-will-slow-hiring-through-2023-in-memo-to-employees.html

[Primemuscle]

I mean, it makes sense that the real estate market is bound to go bust. With just the FED increasing rates (as they must) to reel in inflation, things are bound to get worse. Below is a sample of present day mortgage rates and today's CPI will definitely push the FED to increase rates. Some are betting that the FED will increases FED rates by 1%. That's steep, as it would be hard as fuck for many people to afford a mortgage, standard loan or even margin for stocks. It's going to get hard from a simple home loan perspective, let alone the effects of inflation on supply costs for builders.



"1"

It's hard to believe mortgage rates were as low as they were last fall. I refinanced my mortgage in October at 2.25%. What are they now... something like 5.5%?  What is crazy is how much the value of my home has increased over the past year. I am beginning to see price reductions on homes for sale so the market must have slowed down. Last December the house next door to me sold for $640K during the first open house which was a day after the sign went up. -Just checked and Zillow has dropped the value on my house $15K in the last month.

[Marty Champions]

its not about the economy is about how hard dems can crush the economy to get unemployment , social programs and votes

[Flexacon]

Do I need a math degree?

The average monthly rent for a Manhattan apartment surpassed $5,000 for the first time — and brokers say demand and prices are headed even higher into the fall.

The average apartment rent in June was $5,058, the highest on record, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Average rental prices were up 29% over last year, while median rent was up by 25% to $4,050 a month.

Aside from pricing out many renters, the increases could have knock-on effects amid broader inflation pressures. Rents are a key component of the government’s consumer price index, which increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, and New York is the nation’s largest rental market.



How is it that everything is up 30-50% yet inflation is 9.1%?  WTF am I missing?

But wait, they are saying that inflation is up 9.1% from last June but not overall post covid.  So in reality it is probably double or triple that

Are utility bills included in the rent in Manhattan? If heating, hot water and power costs etc are factored into the rent then this would somewhat explain the increases as those costs will get passed on from landlord to renter.

Yes I have a Russell group Maths degree.

[Moontrane]

Are utility bills included in the rent in Manhattan? If heating, hot water and power costs etc are factored into the rent then this would somewhat explain the increases as those costs will get passed on from landlord to renter.

Yes I have a Russell group Maths degree.

Typically, no.  You pay Con-Edison for electricity and gas separate from rent.  Water is included in rent.

[GymnJuice]

Are utility bills included in the rent in Manhattan? If heating, hot water and power costs etc are factored into the rent then this would somewhat explain the increases as those costs will get passed on from landlord to renter.

Yes I have a Russell group Maths degree.

Something has changed on Zillow and I can't see as many old sales prices on homes any more.

[Flexacon]

Something has changed on Zillow and I can't see as many old sales prices on homes any more.

Same thing happened recently on one of the equivalent UK sites (zoopla)

Strange

[beakdoctor]

Bullshit number.  Inflation is way higher but the gov won't admit it. Let's do some basic math.

Gas is up 100%, Housing is up 50%, rent is up 70%, food is up over 50%.  How the fuck does this average out to 9.1%?

Don't forget the US dollar that used to be 1.30 USD to 1 Euro is now 1-1.  So yeah. 9% my ass.

Not in LurkerNoMore's neighborhood.  He's never seen these problems where he lives. He's totally unaware. Hasn't seen it at all.

[Gym-Rat]

Huh???

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CgILVMhD-ij/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

[GymnJuice]

It is only a matter of time until the media starts pushing stories about how this inflation is actually good for us.

[Thin Lizzy]

There’s already runaway inflation in some good sized countries. China’s can’t be counted on for growth anymore.

The money printing game is over

“Voluntary abandonment” is the only option:

[Dave D]

Go to a Dollar Tree store. Everything used to be a dollar. They did a markup for all items. Everything is now $1.25. That’s 25% inflation for junk items.