Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25

[Kwon]

Whats next?


Another bombardment from Israel?

[Flexacon]

Whats next?


Another bombardment from Israel?

It's close to ending

[Van_Bilderass]

They've been close to a bomb for 25 years. That's a tired old argument.

Apparently Israel has claimed they were close to a bomb since 1984. US intelligence agencies estimate, what Tulsi relayed, was they could build one in 3 years IF they decided to do it. Israel has said they were a week away, Bibi now said 13 months. Then said variously they hade enough material for 7, 9 and 15 bombs. As many have concluded, this has nothing to do with a bomb per se. I don't know but it seems to me that Iran actually building one, or attempting to, might actually put them at greater risk - a preemptive nuclear strike. What's ridiculous is that it's basically illegal to acknowledge Israel's nuclear stockpile in US congress. Because it's illegal, per US laws, to deal with states with bombs that are "undeclared" and not under various treaties.

It's close to ending

How confident are you of that? Even Israeli and US intelligence analysts acknowledge they don't know the extent of Iran's missile stockpile and how much of a defense they can mount going forward. Even harder to know if the regime will collapse and how much support it will get from the populace. Say for example if their oil is attacked that might increase support for the regime. Like I said, Iraq was defeated immediately but how long did it take to finish that project? AFAIK there are still US contractors working there. What if Iran's deep underground nuclear sites cannot be destroyed quickly, are they just going to be left there? Imagine if Iran manages to shoot down a US bomber dropping a bunker buster. Or Iran deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz. Or Iran attacks a US base as retaliation for US going on the offensive.

[B_B_C]

Israel’s long-term approach is security driven:

Israel backed Hamas against Fatah, a policy whose consequences are visible in the carnage in Gaza today.
It backed the South Lebanese army (SLA) in Lebanon, until the SLA’s collapse amid the emergence of Hezbollah.

[Van_Bilderass]

Someone on the internets:

[T]he US and Israel did not launch this war to try to eliminate the nuclear sites. They know they can't. They are too well-protected and dispersed and any damage can be reconstituted in the short-term. They launched it to cause total state collapse in Iran, beginning in phases. The first phase was the eliminate the top military and IRGC leaders, while also going after scientists and mass killing civilians in the process.

This would create the false impression that they are still somewhat restrained and focused on military/nuclear targets.

After taking what they expect will be a similarly constrained response from Iran, they will see that as confirmation that Iran will not adhere to its own stated red lines and is still afraid of meeting Israel at the same level of escalation.

That is their green light to proceed to the next phase, which is to target and kill top political leaders, including Khamenei.

Their hope isn't to replace the current government and state with some re-hash of the monarchist Zionist fascist through his failson, they know there is no base of support for that inside the country.

Their hope is to do another Libya and Syria: Unleash proxy forces they fund and arm together with the Gulf "Arab shield" puppet regimes and NATO-Erdogan and turn it into a spiral of death and chaos, a concocted "civil war" where Iranians are paid and armed by the CIA and Mossad to kill Iranians.

The MEK and other such proxy forces have already been trained and prepared and are ready to be activated. They will begin with car bombings and terrorist attacks mass killing civilians. "ISIS" will reappear again and do its typical job for their CIA-Mossad masters.

The US and Israel decided to launch this war since before Trump was elected, and it has the full and total support of the entire US military-intelligence-industrial complex and the media and political class, both Republicans and Democrats and it would have also happened if Kamala Harris won the election.

They see Iran and the Axis of Resistance and its alliance with Russia and China as the main obstacle to full and total Zionist US-NATO-Israeli imperial hegemony in the region and by extension the world, and they want to destroy it as it is the only one that unlike Russia and China does not have a nuclear deterrent and they want to get to it before it obtains it.

This is an existential war of survival not just for the Iranian state, but for Iran as a nation.

If this project succeeds, the country will be balkanized, ethnic divisions will be stirred by foreign actors, the CIA and Mossad and the Gulf puppets will fund and arm dozens of proxy death and rape-squads roaming their fiefdoms, tens of millions of lives will be destroyed.

Everything must be done to prevent this. Iran has the weapons to do so. It has the capacity to do so, it is only a question of will. Does it have the will to do what it takes to prevent the mass destruction of their own people and nation. I hope it does. We must all hope it does.

Interesting analysis here:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/true-promise-3-iran-responds-with

Now Trump stands poised on the knife’s edge of one of his most historically critical decisions—whether to betray the mandate of the American people and consign his second term and dwindling legacy to the trash heap of history, or to pull back on the strings of Miriam Adelson and other donors and show a spine in standing up for the real ‘America First’ vision he promised to all. As of this writing, there are reports of urgent meetings in the Pentagon surrounding precisely the issue of Israel’s request for the US to officially enter the war to ‘finish off Iran’.

Yanis Varoufakis writes:

"This is Trump's Waterloo. He posed as the Leviathan who would bring a stealthy Peace, a smart Deal that averts a war with Iran. Then, with one more gross violation of international law, Netanyahu puts him in a little box: For either Trump knew of the attack, in which case he is no more than Netanyahu's stooge. Or he didn't know, which begs the question why he didn't know and how will he react to being treated like a fool by Netanyahu. Either way, Trump's strongman, dealmaking image is now toast. Either way, he goes down in history as yet another US President that Netanyahu bent to his genocidal will."

The entire non-Western world is now watching this pivotal turning point moment with bated breath: Trump can either make a move to redeem at least some lost hope for America’s global leadership, or instead pound the final nail in its coffin, forever edifying the rising Global South as to the true nature of the immoral, barbarous, and unprincipled West. It is a metaphysical crossroads: Trump will either stay true to his quasi-spiritual mission of world betterment, or he will drown the US in the blood of neocon imperialism.

Israel’s long-term approach is security driven:
 Israel backed Hamas against Fatah, a policy whose consequences are visible in the carnage in Gaza today.
It backed the South Lebanese army (SLA) in Lebanon, until the SLA’s collapse amid the emergence of Hezbollah.

I see you copied and pasted this from a Guardian article. The article echoes what I said previously:

If Netanyahu’s comments appear eerily familiar, it is because they are. The same Netanyahu, and Iran hawks in the US, pushed a similar argument in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Iraqis then, like Iranians, the world was told, would welcome the removal of Saddam. The Middle East would be reshaped.

Meaningful regime change, however (whatever that means in practical terms), is not the same as regime destruction.

In Iraq, where ultimately an incompetent US effort was made at nation-building, and Libya – where it was not – there followed periods of bloody chaos, which continues in Libya.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/17/netanyahu-israel-iran-regime-change-destruction

That is, the goal is chaos, death and destruction, not betterment for the Iranians or to free them from an oppressive regime. Bibi says "We are not against you, the Iranian people." Meanwhile the plan, if successful, is to kill millions of people through a civil war through terror groups funded and instructed by the CIA and Mossad.

[Mayday]

I see you copied and pasted this from a Guardian article. The article echoes what I said previously:

That is, the goal is chaos, death and destruction, not betterment for the Iranians or to free them from an oppressive regime. Bibi says "We are not against you, the Iranian people." Meanwhile the plan, if successful, is to kill millions of people through a civil war through terror groups funded and instructed by the CIA and Mossad.

Perhaps the aim of constant war in the Middle East is to prevent them being stable enough to take a side of a larger country wanting to wage war on the US and Allies?

It does seem at any sign of unity, next minute they are being bombed.

[Van_Bilderass]

Perhaps the aim of constant war in the Middle East is to prevent them being stable enough to take a side of a larger country wanting to wage war on the US and Allies?

It does seem at any sign of unity, next minute they are being bombed.

I think that's it exactly. Prevent China from allying itself with Russia, prevent both from allying with Iran. Sabotage BRICS. Israel and the US say they are "freeing" Iran, the usual BS they say when staging color revolutions. Trump says he wants an economically successful Iran but that's obviously not true, they know this will result in years of bloodshed and misery, probably decades. The plan for Russia for decades has been to balkanize it and make it weak. Trump has demanded that China open itself up for American business, which means an opportunity for the Zionist bankers to suck its blood, but I don't think the Chinese are that stupid At the same time, Trump's whole platform has been to sort of be a counterweight to these, at least partly; end the forever wars, make peace with Russia and so on but obviously he can't fight the "Deep State." Well, maybe he could, theoretically he could tell Bibi to go fuck himself, end the Ukraine debacle, extricate the US from the ME, but the US so thoroughly captured by the Zionists, he took all that money from people like Miriam Adelson...

As I quoted above:

"The entire non-Western world is now watching this pivotal turning point moment with bated breath: Trump can either make a move to redeem at least some lost hope for America’s global leadership, or instead pound the final nail in its coffin, forever edifying the rising Global South as to the true nature of the immoral, barbarous, and unprincipled West. It is a metaphysical crossroads: Trump will either stay true to his quasi-spiritual mission of world betterment, or he will drown the US in the blood of neocon imperialism."

Some are still hoping Trump is playing 5D chess and he might still come through and fulfill his promises... Trump responds to Tucker, who has been a Trump supporter and huge influence on the MAGA right, with childish insults like a 13 year old. He is alienating himself from his biggest allies. They think this Iran war will split the MAGA base because a large part of that base is not with him on yet another ME war. Though I don't know what a poll of them would say right now. Maybe they don't care, not as long as they get to sit on the couch watching the bombing and go about their lives as per usual. If there was a draft and a world war I don't think they feel Iran is such an immediate existential threat to warrant it. I don't think they would even accept a tripling of gas price

&t=530s

[OlympiaGym]

It’s not that complicated.

Iran’s disruptive regime needs to fall in line with the new world order. China wants it, the Arab world wants it, Russia wants it, et al. The world will publicly condemn US involvement but silently condone it. Even Syria’s new government wants to be part of the global economy.

A cataclysmic world war is just an internet/social media phenomena, like many things today. In six months this will be ancient history, partly due to lessons learned in recent ME conflicts.

[Van_Bilderass]

Iran’s disruptive regime needs to fall in line with the new world order.

And let me guess, with a world court in Jerusalem ruling over all?

What a nightmare vision. It doesn't get more dark than this in my opinion.
.

[illuminati]

And let me guess, with a world court in Jerusalem ruling over all?

What a nightmare vision. It doesn't get more dark than this in my opinion.
.

Spot on - Agree

[Kwon]

And let me guess, with a world court in Jerusalem ruling over all?

What a nightmare vision. It doesn't get more dark than this in my opinion.
.

Watch this vid bror

[IroNat]

Flight Tracker Allegedly Spies Mysterious Chinese Transport Planes Heading for Iran

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2025/06/18/flight-tracker-allegedly-spies-mysterious-chinese-transport-planes-heading-for-iran/

[Van_Bilderass]

Watch this vid bror

Earlier I edited my post above to include this vid

We will see who is right, the doomsayers or the ones here who say this will be over in a couple of weeks and forgotten in 6 months. I fucking hope I'm 100% wrong and worried for no reason. I just don't get how one can be so optimistic; Trump tells Iranians the whole of Tehran should evacuate - all 10 million people! My reading tells me they are going to do an insane blitz, bombers refueling from US tankers and no one is safe in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran. So much for Israel being able to do this on their own.

Look at this insane text Trump reposted on Truth Social. Madness.

[obsidian]

Earlier I edited my post above to include this vid

We will see who is right, the doomsayers or the ones here who say this will be over in a couple of weeks and forgotten in 6 months. I fucking hope I'm 100% wrong and worried for no reason. I just don't get how one can be so optimistic; Trump tells Iranians the whole of Tehran should evacuate - all 10 million people! My reading tells me they are going to do an insane blitz, bombers refueling from US tankers and no one is safe in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran. So much for Israel being able to do this on their own.

Look at this insane text Trump reposted on Truth Social. Madness.

Reckless rhetoric from Trump. You can't evacuate 10 million people. Where do they go? And the ones that don't make it out? Too bad, we warned you, now we bomb the fuck out of your city. Iran should absolutely develop a nuclear weapon after Trump threatened 10 million Iranians. Or Russia / China / Pakistan should donate enough to match Israel's 200 nukes. Deterrence for Peace.

This war on Iran is just another resource grab. It was never about nuclear weapons. It's the same old rhetoric they used with Iraq, Libya, Syria, Vietnam. Remember the false flag Gulf of Tonkin incident? Israel literally bombed a US military ship which killed numerous naval officers and crew.

The USS Liberty incident was an attack on a United States Navy technical research ship (a spy ship), USS Liberty, by Israeli Air Force jet fighter aircraft and Israeli Navy motor torpedo boats, on 8 June 1967, during the Six-Day War.[2] The combined air and sea attack killed 34 crew members (naval officers, seamen, two marines, and one civilian NSA employee), wounded 171 crew members, and severely damaged the ship.[3] At the time, the ship was in international waters north of the Sinai Peninsula, about 25.5 nautical miles (47.2 km; 29.3 mi) northwest from the Egyptian city of Arish.[1][4]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident

James Bamford, a prominent investigative journalist and author known for his work on U.S. intelligence agencies, has written and spoken extensively about the USS Liberty incident, and he takes a critical stance toward the official U.S. and Israeli narratives.

In his book "Body of Secrets" (2001), Bamford devotes significant attention to the 1967 Israeli attack on the USS Liberty, a U.S. Navy intelligence-gathering ship that was attacked by Israeli air and naval forces during the Six-Day War, killing 34 American crew members and wounding over 170.

Here are key points Bamford makes:

1. Deliberate Attack
Bamford argues that the attack was not a case of mistaken identity, as Israel claimed. He presents evidence and testimony suggesting that Israeli forces knew the ship was American, including:

The ship's large U.S. flag and distinctive markings.

Intercepts and testimony from NSA personnel indicating Israeli forces deliberately targeted the ship.

He cites survivors, NSA documents, and former officials who contradict the Israeli and U.S. official story.

2. U.S. Cover-Up
Bamford suggests that the U.S. government deliberately downplayed and covered up the incident to protect the U.S.–Israel relationship.

He criticizes President Lyndon B. Johnson and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara for not pursuing a full investigation.

He claims U.S. officials suppressed NSA intercepts that could have proven Israeli knowledge of the ship’s identity.

3. Motive
One of Bamford’s more controversial claims is that Israel may have had a motive to prevent the USS Liberty from intercepting sensitive Israeli military communications—possibly relating to:

The planned Israeli invasion of Syria.

Alleged atrocities or military movements Israel didn’t want the U.S. to know about.

4. NSA Involvement
Because the USS Liberty was an NSA signals intelligence ship, Bamford connects the incident to the broader context of Cold War intelligence operations. He draws on his deep research into the NSA to explore why Liberty was there and what it may have been intercepting.

Summary
Bamford views the USS Liberty attack as a deliberate act by Israel, followed by a cover-up by the U.S. government. He believes the truth has been obscured for geopolitical reasons and argues for a full, transparent investigation—which survivors and some former officials have long demanded.

[Irongrip400]

Earlier I edited my post above to include this vid

We will see who is right, the doomsayers or the ones here who say this will be over in a couple of weeks and forgotten in 6 months. I fucking hope I'm 100% wrong and worried for no reason. I just don't get how one can be so optimistic; Trump tells Iranians the whole of Tehran should evacuate - all 10 million people! My reading tells me they are going to do an insane blitz, bombers refueling from US tankers and no one is safe in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran. So much for Israel being able to do this on their own.

Look at this insane text Trump reposted on Truth Social. Madness.

Man that’s just fucking nuts. Trump needs to back the fuck off of the Iran rhetoric and let this thing play out between the two parties currently involved.

[Van_Bilderass]

Reckless rhetoric from Trump. You can't evacuate 10 million people. Where do they go? And the ones that don't make it out? Too bad, we warned you, now we bomb the fuck out of your city. Iran should absolutely develop a nuclear weapon after Trump threatened 10 million Iranians. Or Russia / China / Pakistan should donate enough to match Israel's 200 nukes. Deterrence for Peace.

OlympiaGym above thinks Russia and China support this action, the protests are just fake rhetoric for the masses. I don't think so, they know they are next on the chopping block. But they have the bomb, so...

I posted above that the USS Liberty incident is as good as proven to be a malicious action. Israel never had to answer for it. Sailors were threatened if they spoke out. US president turned back the planes that were en route to help. Said something to the effect of, "I'll be damned if I turn against our ally for a few dead sailors."

Man that’s just fucking nuts. Trump needs to back the fuck off of the Iran rhetoric and let this thing play out between the two parties currently involved.

God is directing Trump

Trump is already involved, he knew about the attack, "I know everything," he said. Israel wouldn't have dared to start without knowing they had US backing. Trump gloated that he killed people on the nuclear negotiation team; he lulled them into thinking he was serious.
"War crime" is perhaps a silly term but this is a war crime according the international consensus. At least it shows he has no honor and his word is worthless. I've said on here in the past, when posters said he was the best president ever, that Trump could be that, but could just as well turn out to be the worst president in the history of the world, because he was holding several huge bags of shit threatening to burst

[Flexacon]

Man that’s just fucking nuts. Trump needs to back the fuck off of the Iran rhetoric and let this thing play out between the two parties currently involved.

Relax.

Everyone doom posting, thinking other muslim nations will side with Iran and join any war. It's not gonna happen. Pakistan is and has always been Americas bitch. The Arab powers will condemn any actions from Israel and the US, but they are aligned. They want the Iranian regime to end and stability in the region.

Iran is on it's own here and a couple of bunker buster bombs ends this.

[OlympiaGym]

Iran couldn’t maintain the integrity of its airspace for even a few hours. Anyone even remotely familiar with military history knows what that means. One way or another the end result is inevitable. Iran has been neutered. However, the US and Israel know better than to overtly attempt regime change, particularly after the Afghanistan and Iraq fiascos. Any “boots on the ground” will be limited to safe, low-risk ops. There will be no trying to take Tehran or any other parts of Iran in the name of bringing democracy to the Iranian people. The need to even pretend that’s necessary is long past. Israeli/US hegemony in the area is undisputed.

Russia is mired in Ukraine. China is playing the long game for now, and just wants the oil to keep flowing. India is not yet a player at this level.

So the choice is up to the Iranian people - get in the fold or see your living conditions deteriorate beyond anything you’ve previously experienced.

[OlympiaGym]

OlympiaGym above thinks Russia and China support this action, the protests are just fake rhetoric for the masses. I don't think so, they know they are next on the chopping block. But they have the bomb, so...

I posted above that the USS Liberty incident is as good as proven to be a malicious action. Israel never had to answer for it. Sailors were threatened if they spoke out. US president turned back the planes that were en route to help. Said something to the effect of, "I'll be damned if I turn against our ally for a few dead sailors."

China is very dependent on Iranian oil and is actually relying on us to keep the Straight of Hormuz open because its military doesn’t have the force projection to do so (at least not yet). People need to realize how much more advanced the US military is relative to every other country in the world both in size and technology. No country has the force projection capabilities of the US. It’s not even close. Google how many military aircraft the US has compared to everyone else. The difference is mind blowing.

[Van_Bilderass]

Iran is on it's own here and a couple of bunker buster bombs ends this.

I sure hope you are right. But if this is such an easy win, why does the US have to get involved at all? Israel is panicking, they can't take even a little bombing.

Iran couldn’t maintain the integrity of its airspace for even a few hours. Anyone even remotely familiar with military history knows what that means. One way or another the end result is inevitable. Iran has been neutered.

 

So the choice is up to the Iranian people - get in the fold or see your living conditions deteriorate beyond anything you’ve previously experienced.

Again, if Iran has been neutered already, no reason for the US to get involved at all. The consensus is that the nuclear sites can not be destroyed easily, or at all, so regime change it is.

As if extreme bombing won't deteriorate their living conditions. Who really thinks peace will reign after regime change in Iran? When did that happen previously? Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. Israel and the US will fund terror groups like ISIS to wreak havoc in Iran. It makes me sick how Trump praises Al-Sharaa, the Al-Qaeda commander. These were supposed to be US enemies. Israel built up ISIS, treated their wounded soldiers in Israel, and now they handed rifles to ISIS linked groups in Gaza. Israel doesn't try to bring peace and stability to Muslim countries, they bring destruction and chaos.

China is very dependent on Iranian oil and is actually relying on us to keep the Straight of Hormuz open because its military doesn’t have the force projection to do so (at least not yet). People need to realize how much more advanced the US military is relative to every other country in the world both in size and technology. No country has the force projection capabilities of the US. It’s not even close. Google how many military aircraft the US has compared to everyone else. The difference is mind blowing.

Sure, but in the end the US had to flee Afghanistan and hand over the country to the Taliban. As the cliche goes, these were fighters in sandals and skirts. If the US overthrows the regime in Iran they will still need to be there to make sure the oil keeps flowing and the Strait open.

[OlympiaGym]

Won’t be great for any of these people but we have to look at the world for what it is, not what we wish it was.

[Flexacon]

I sure hope you are right. But if this is such an easy win, why does the US have to get involved at all? Israel is panicking, they can't take even a little bombing.

Israel doesn't have the bunker buster bombs to take out the underground nuclear facility. They need the US to deploy them or to give Israel the bombs so they can deploy them.

The US seems to still be holding out for an Iranian surrender (I guess that suits them more) and Israel is "panicking" because of the lack of action from the US.

This could be over any time the US wants it to be over

[Van_Bilderass]

This could be over any time the US wants it to be over

Depends on what you mean by "over" I guess. If you mean killing everyone then sure. But it's not like the affair ends there. The country has to be engineered to US and Israeli liking. They probably will want to fly over the Shah's exiled son, but I don't know if anyone can predict how that will go over with the Iranian people. And then you have to secure the Iranian energy resources.

[Flexacon]

Depends on what you mean by "over" I guess. If you mean killing everyone then sure. But it's not like the affair ends there. The country has to be engineered to US and Israeli liking. They probably will want to fly over the Shah's exiled son, but I don't know if anyone can predict how that will go over with the Iranian people. And then you have to secure the Iranian energy resources.

Ending Iran's nuclear capabilities is the primary goal and that alone will bring stability back to the region.

Any regime change would be a bonus, but it's not a necessity.

Why would they need to kill everyone?

Btw you are doing a great impression of MattC when he would bug out over something 

[Van_Bilderass]

Ending Iran's nuclear capabilities is the primary goal and that alone will bring stability back to the region.

Any regime change would be a bonus, but it's not a necessity.

Why would they need to kill everyone?

Btw you are doing a great impression of MattC when he would bug out over something 

I've become obsessed with this topic I don't think I'm on the spectrum though, but have never been evaluated

By "everyone" I mean going after all the politicians and regime supporters. Trump saying Tehran needs to evacuate sounds ominous though; he's clearly saying those 10 million people are at risk of dying.

I'm not any kind of geopolitical expert but I have a feeling stability will not result. I think regime change IS the main goal, under the guise of destroying the nuclear capability. Look at Syria, Israel and the US enabled, funded and armed the groups of extremists to overthrow the government. But Israel had to bomb their missile stocks at the same time because they can't trust their new "friends." I read somewhere recently that rockets have been launched towards Israel from Syria, so they aren't 100% controlled. So if the same playbook is imposed on Iran the US has to manage the aftermath. It's never just bomb and leave. Depending on your point of view, you could argue that Shia Iranians kept the Sunni extremists in check, the Al-Qaeda, ISIS, etc. That video above linked by me and Kwon clearly shows Iranians said they would immediately accept downgrading their enrichment to 3% or whatever, enough for civilian use, in exchange for lifting sanctions. Analysts say this was the easiest deal ever, IF the goal was them not getting the bomb. But that's just the excuse for regime change. In my amateur analysis anyway

We'll see if US bunker busters will work.

MIT Prof Ted Postol on the bunker busters at 19:50