Author Topic: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25  (Read 9981 times)

OlympiaGym

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #225 on: June 19, 2025, 05:44:03 PM »
I am not with Israel, nor Iran. Russia warned today for the US not to get involved. The thing is a powder keg there now. Ukraine was not close to joining Nato. All those former soviet countries wanted in to Nato it was not something pushed on them, unlike Russia's full scale war with Ukraine. Ukraine does not want to be a second class citizen in Russia's empire any longer.

What is Russia going to do? Its threats are meaningless. Ukraine has exposed Russia’s conventional military as second-rate at best. Russia’s only threat is the nuclear one and I doubt they can handle that competently.

Van_Bilderass

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #226 on: June 19, 2025, 08:14:08 PM »
It was someone else who said these things. I said this isn't a prelude to WWIII and it will be over soon. Ranking the most likely to least likely scenarios

Negotiations/Ceasefire
Iranian regime surrender
Iranian regime is overthrown
US boots on the ground and it's another Iraq.

We canrevist this (this has reminded me to revisit some other threads  ;D)

Ok yeah I may have mistaken some comments as yours, but ok you think this will be relatively quick. I don't claim to know how this will play out, just have a feeling this will have big consequences. Even legacy media is very apprehensive and afraid of this spiraling out of control. I'm in my own reality tunnel and echo chamber but the dissidents who have been Trump supporters, which I follow, are very critical of how he's behaving lately. I don't know how the so-called MAGA base is feeling right now but others like Tucker and Bannon think it can/will lead to a split. They may be inconsequential with no influence right now like some you are saying, but they have been instrumental for "Trumpism" and have had Trump's ear at some points. Some of them say Trump is the biggest threat to Trumpism and that whole anti-Deep State movement :D Trump responds to Tucker by childish insults. How helpful is his social media posting really. He just waffles saying, "we might go in, we might not go in, Iranians want a deal, I want negotiations, I want total surrender, we will kill the Ayatollah, he is safe where he is," and on and on. Very childish and undisciplined :D

I wonder if a decision has already been made by Trump and he's just waiting for the right moment to go in, once all the resources are in place. If Israel's missiles run out, and they are already rationing them, then what? I guess it also depends on how big Iran's missile stock is and if they have the launchers etc. One analyst says there's little evidence Israel is actually freely flying over Iran as claimed, that the evidence is the missiles are fired from outside Iran actually, that the footage shows it's mostly drones they've managed to get through. Also that the more effective air defense batteries are situated "in the north" and haven't been touched. Claims Iran is using up the older missiles to exhaust Israel's anti-missiles batteries and that they realized they shouldn't go all in at the start because that would have forced US involvement, it was a trap. Israel actually expected 5,000 Israeli casualties immediately, which they "wanted" to force the US in.



https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iranian-abyss-will-us-take-the-plunge

Someone tell me how to put a hyperlink into a word in a text please :)

Humble Narcissist

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #227 on: June 20, 2025, 12:31:43 AM »

obsidian

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #228 on: June 20, 2025, 02:08:43 AM »
It was someone else who said these things. I said this isn't a prelude to WWIII and it will be over soon. Ranking the most likely to least likely scenarios

Negotiations/Ceasefire
Iranian regime surrender
Iranian regime is overthrown
US boots on the ground and it's another Iraq.

We canrevist this (this has reminded me to revisit some other threads  ;D)

A ceasefire or some form of negotiation might eventually happen, but I don’t see Iran surrendering easily—nor do I think regime change is likely. If that were going to happen, it would’ve occurred within the first 48 hours of the conflict. At this point, the Iranian leadership is more likely to dig in, and each Iranian killed in the campaign will only deepen public resentment toward Israel and the United States. After all, Iran did not strike first. So why would the Iranian public blame their own leaders? If anything, it's the Israeli government—accused of pursuing aggressive and destructive policies—that faces a legitimacy crisis.

A full-scale U.S. ground invasion is also extremely unlikely. Iran’s terrain is mountainous and difficult, and the American public has little appetite for another prolonged war. Trump was elected in part because he promised to end foreign entanglements. Iran has a massive standing army, and any invading force would be vastly outnumbered. The U.S. experience in Afghanistan—a far weaker and less organized country—was already a disaster. Iran poses an even greater challenge. Yes, I understand that modern U.S. wars are often less about "winning" and more about sustaining the military-industrial complex, but even by that standard, a ground war with Iran seems implausible.

obsidian

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #229 on: June 20, 2025, 02:15:51 AM »
If you overlook the Russophilia, are you on Israel's side on this? Israel's or the Palestinian side? :D And regarding the Ukraine issue, you actually said with a straight face that NATO is in no way expansionist unlike Russia :D :D :D

I'm agnostic but if there is a righteous God I pray that there's a measure of justice for Israel's crimes.

Ted Postol goes over the many issues with the bunker busters. They have ways to deflect the impact so the missile turns sideways, and who says the bunkers are straight down from whatever entrance is on top, and so on. He thinks the attempt will fail unless the Iranians were stupid in building them.




Sure, but what about Israel? Come on man, Israel has banned any filming of crash sites, almost all journalists are banned, unless they are allowed in some very limited cases, there is a threat of jail time. Control of information happens by all sides in all wars. Both sides here downplay their damage and exaggerate the successes. Israel will downplay damage until they are losing then it's the usual Jewish playbook of being oppressed and being eternal victims, "look what these barbarian terrorists are doing, they are hitting hospitals, where CHILDREN sleep!" like Bibi does right now. Like this lunatic never bombed a hospital or outright targeted children!

Trump is getting cold feet, whatever he does here he is fucked, I don't see any way where he doesn't lose big.

Israel is running out of ammo for their missile defense. They will demand Trump intervene. If he does, there are huge risks. Regional war, US troops at huge risk (planes being repositioned in Qatar right now for example), turning the MAGA base against him and on and on.

We will revisit this in the future, we'll see if this is over in a few days, if it's an easy win, if it's all but forgotten in 6 months, as you predict :D Even Bibi is now saying this is a complicated situation but they have to do it, but you know better I'm sure.

I saw that video you posted. Really interesting info. I often listen to long YouTube discussions at 2x. If it is really interesting, I might slow it down to 1.5x or even 1x.

OlympiaGym

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #230 on: June 20, 2025, 04:24:11 AM »
Israeli stock market in Tel Aviv is hitting record highs this week. Money is pouring in. Everyone loves a winner.

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/why-israel-stock-market-surged-despite-iran-missile-attack-on-tel-aviv-stock-exchange-hl-13898677.html/amp


Methyl m1ke

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #231 on: June 20, 2025, 10:29:47 AM »
It seems some of you forget about the massacre on oct 7th in Israel of 1500 women and children. Masterminded by the regime of iran. They are going to burn for their crimes, and i am going to enjoy watching very much. Van keeps saying Israel attacked iran first, BULLSHIT. had it.been 1500 swedish women and children you would feel differently.

Fuck all of that. Regime change is not the goal, its eye for an eye mother fucker
 Violence is all these animals understand, its what they know. Live by the sword, die by it.

Van_Bilderass

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #232 on: June 20, 2025, 12:57:43 PM »
I saw that video you posted. Really interesting info. I often listen to long YouTube discussions at 2x. If it is really interesting, I might slow it down to 1.5x or even 1x.

Haha I do the same. Some people are a pleasure to listen to at normal speed but many other stumble on their words with a lot of uhhs and aahs and it takes forever :D
Then again there's also another type, a couple of analysts spit out words like a machine gun absolutely perfectly with zero mistakes and I don't have time to absorb it at all, and I'm like fuck you fella :D

Kwon

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #233 on: June 20, 2025, 06:47:28 PM »
It seems some of you forget about the massacre on oct 7th in Israel of 1500 women and children. Masterminded by the regime of iran. They are going to burn for their crimes, and i am going to enjoy watching very much. Van keeps saying Israel attacked iran first, BULLSHIT. had it.been 1500 swedish women and children you would feel differently.

Fuck all of that. Regime change is not the goal, its eye for an eye mother fucker
 Violence is all these animals understand, its what they know. Live by the sword, die by it.

Of course we would feel different if something happened to 1500 swedish women and children, but now its

Q

Van_Bilderass

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #234 on: June 20, 2025, 08:17:35 PM »
It seems some of you forget about the massacre on oct 7th in Israel of 1500 women and children. Masterminded by the regime of iran. They are going to burn for their crimes, and i am going to enjoy watching very much. Van keeps saying Israel attacked iran first, BULLSHIT. had it.been 1500 swedish women and children you would feel differently.

Fuck all of that. Regime change is not the goal, its eye for an eye mother fucker
 Violence is all these animals understand, its what they know. Live by the sword, die by it.

Some dirty pajeet said an eye for an eye makes the whole world go blind :D

So I take it that you're Jewish then; I understand your loyalties. We all are biased based on a multitude of factors. I probably would feel differently if it were Swedes, but as things stand Jews are at the forefront of fucking my whole country, have already done so permanently, so my sympathies lie elsewhere 8)

After what Jews have done to the Palestinians, the Jews' soft power has weakened considerably. People realize their cry of NEVER AGAIN was never meant as a universal condemnation of genocide, or that the world would never again stand by and watch a holocaust unfold. We had "survivors" come to class to preach about how it's never right to kill innocent women and children. But Jews are different, they have the God-given right to destroy Amalek, which includes children. Regarding Oct 7, I don't agree with killing civilians by the Palestinians but previous history since 1948 does affect how things are viewed. It seems the Hannibal directive was applied, confirmed by some IDF spokesmen, IDF killed both captives and kidnappers, so a large % may have been killed by friendly fire so to speak. Netanyahu is still talking about mass rapes and beheaded children which have been proven to be Israeli disinformation. What we do have is IDF on camera committing group homosexual rape. The perpetrators of which were apprehended but then freed from jail by a mob. Polls showed a majority thought the rapes were fine. Says something about moral standards of Israeli society. Then again most Israelis approve of total ethnic cleansing.

Leavitt said the whole world is behind US and Israel on this Iran war. I think that's just factually incorrect. Fact of the matter is that many are not sympathetic to the Israelis after Gaza. Gaza has led people to exploring anti-semitic conspiracy theory (or conspiracy fact, depending on your POV) and "anti-semitism" is spiking everywhere (though when has it ever been reduced, it's always increasing, we need more money to counter it lol). It's so bad that Trump has had to restrict free speech.

If the goal truly is eliminating the nuclear threat you do need regime change. You actually need an invasion and an occupation as well, because you need people on the ground to  account for all nuclear material, see if the centrifuges are truly destroyed, you need to kill all the scientists involved and destroy all their data and know-how, all the politicians and clerics need to be eliminated. If I'm not mistaken you can make a dirty bomb with nuclear material. I think Russians were worried about this wrt Ukraine at some point, they relayed their worries to the Americans who thought it was fake, that they were setting up an alibi for using a nuke preemptively.

This is the guy many claim the CIA wants to fly in after the regime change. I don't know how Iranians in Iran would feel about him. I do know the Iranians I know here don't like the clerics, but many here are homos who would probably want gay pride parades in Tehran. I don't know if the "Crown Prince of Iran" would accomodate that.


Griffith

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #235 on: June 21, 2025, 01:15:41 AM »
The entire region is a constant liability to the rest of the world.

IroNat

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #236 on: June 21, 2025, 04:37:48 AM »
Know what to do in case!


GymnJuice

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #237 on: June 21, 2025, 05:07:11 AM »
This is the guy many claim the CIA wants to fly in after the regime change. I don't know how Iranians in Iran would feel about him. I do know the Iranians I know here don't like the clerics, but many here are homos who would probably want gay pride parades in Tehran. I don't know if the "Crown Prince of Iran" would accomodate that.

If regime change doesn't come from within then it will be bad for the people of the country regardless of how bad the ayatollahs are. Saddam sucked but in Iraq after western intervention the Iraqis are worse off, IMO. Same with Afghanistan.

obsidian

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #238 on: June 21, 2025, 05:17:18 AM »
There are rumors that Putin's mother was Jewish. She died 2 years ago at the age of 96.



https://www.quora.com/Was-Vladimir-Putins-mother-Jewish

https://www.rt.com/news/620076-israel-russian-speaking-putin/

Israel ‘almost a Russian-speaking country’ – Putin
The president also noted that Moscow has traditionally had friendly relations with the Islamic world, at SPIEF 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin has highlighted Israel’s large Russian-speaking population as one of the key factors in Moscow’s approach to the ongoing Middle East conflict – as well as Russia’s own Muslim population and traditionally friendly relations with the Islamic world.

Speaking at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on Thursday, Putin said those who question Russia’s commitment to its partners are “provocateurs” attempting to stir discord. The Russian president underscored the complexity of the Iran-Israel conflict, cautioning against one-size-fits-all expectations of alliances.

“Every conflict is unique,” he said, noting Russia’s nuanced relationships across the region.

Putin highlighted the presence of the nearly 2 million Russian-speaking residents of Israel. “It is almost a Russian-speaking country today. And, undoubtedly, we always take this into account in Russia’s contemporary history,” he said.

He also pointed to Russia’s “friendly, trusting, and allied” relations with the Arab and Islamic world, which include 15% of Russia’s own population and participation as an observer in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.


Putin reiterated Russia’s support for Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear program – stressing that this support is not merely rhetorical, but demonstrated through concrete cooperation.

“We defend Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy not just in words, but in action,” he said. “Despite all the complexity of the situation around Iran, we built a nuclear reactor in Bushehr... And despite all the challenges and certain risks, we continue this work.”

Putin dismissed criticism that Russia should have done more to support Iran. “Start some kind of combat operations, is that it?” he asked.

“We already have combat operations going on against those who we consider opponents of the ideas we defend and who pose a threat to the Russian Federation,” he said, adding that these opponents are “far behind the frontline” and are “basically the same forces – with Iran and in the case of Russia.”

According to the Kremlin, Putin has a “complete picture” of the situation, as one of the few leaders to speak directly with the heads of Israel, Iran, and the US since the conflict flared up last week.

In a late-night Q&A session on Wednesday, Putin told journalists that Moscow has proposed several compromise frameworks to all parties, suggesting that a settlement should include mutual security guarantees – protecting both Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology and Israel’s right to security.

While reaffirming support for Iran’s legitimate interests, Putin clarified on Friday that Russia is not seeking to act as a mediator in the Iran-Israel conflict.

chaos

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #239 on: June 21, 2025, 07:33:54 AM »
It seems some of you forget about the massacre on oct 7th in Israel of 1500 women and children. Masterminded by the regime of iran. They are going to burn for their crimes, and i am going to enjoy watching very much. Van keeps saying Israel attacked iran first, BULLSHIT. had it.been 1500 swedish women and children you would feel differently.

Fuck all of that. Regime change is not the goal, its eye for an eye mother fucker
 Violence is all these animals understand, its what they know. Live by the sword, die by it.

I saw some guy talking about how Israel was built like a fortress and idf were every 10 feet according to him, then he wondered out loud how they could be invaded like that without knowing.
Liar!!!!Filt!!!!

illuminati

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #240 on: June 21, 2025, 10:00:41 AM »
I saw some guy talking about how isreal was built like a fortress and idf were every 10 feet according to him, then he wondered out loud how they could be invaded like that without knowing.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did it themselves to justify attacking.


Van_Bilderass

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #241 on: June 21, 2025, 12:47:39 PM »
“Despite all the complexity of the situation around Iran, we built a nuclear reactor in Bushehr... And despite all the challenges and certain risks, we continue this work.”



Putin said there were 250 Russians working in Bushehr and would now boost it to perhaps 600.

I saw some guy talking about how isreal was built like a fortress and idf were every 10 feet according to him, then he wondered out loud how they could be invaded like that without knowing.

I've seen a lot of speculation on YT about that. That it was a false flag operation basically. Some military posts were unmanned and so on. I don't know what the truth is.

This fella explains how US troops in Iraq are surrounded by militias loyal to Iran. CIA trained militias! Policy is schizo, US supports enemies in one place when they are useful and fights them at another. Currently Al-Qaeda, ISIS, DAESH etc are "friends" in Syria.
Fella thinks if Iran falls as a counterweight to Sunni terrorists, the Sunnis may turn their animosity towards Israel instead :D



Know what to do in case!



Interestingly, Ted Postol said if close to where missiles are incoming seek shelter in place, any shelter, don't think there's nothing to be done. Said in WWII when the public was instructed to hit the floor the survivability increased by a third or something like that.

Obviously if you are nuked a desk isn't going to help :D


Flexacon

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #242 on: June 21, 2025, 05:17:04 PM »
Relax.

Everyone doom posting, thinking other muslim nations will side with Iran and join any war. It's not gonna happen. Pakistan is and has always been Americas bitch. The Arab powers will condemn any actions from Israel and the US, but they are aligned. They want the Iranian regime to end and stability in the region.

Iran is on it's own here and a couple of bunker buster bombs ends this.

Flexacon > youtube "experts"


Van_Bilderass

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #243 on: June 21, 2025, 05:26:54 PM »
Flexacon > youtube "experts"



Wow. But hold your horses just a while longer. Now it's really getting interesting.

Declaring victory immediately?

Flexacon

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #244 on: June 21, 2025, 05:57:09 PM »
Wow. But hold your horses just a while longer. Now it's really getting interesting.

Declaring victory immediately?

Trump is already getting his victory speech ready  :D There may still be some more bombs that fly between Israel and Iran, but it will all fizzle out.

You see there is one important thing here I'm assuming you didn't consider as probably don't believe it, but the Iranian regime do not seek war with Israel despite what people might say.

Their primary objective (based on prophetical reasons) is to stay in power Iran. As long as they are not made to look weak or like cucks, they will take the negotiations/peace route

Flexacon

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #245 on: June 21, 2025, 06:13:20 PM »
Ending Iran's nuclear capabilities is the primary goal and that alone will bring stability back to the region.

Any regime change would be a bonus, but it's not a necessity.

Why would they need to kill everyone?

Btw you are doing a great impression of MattC when he would bug out over something  ;D


BREAKING: CBS News reports that the US informed Iran that the strikes on nuclear facilities are all the United States was intending to do, without any plans for regime change.

https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1936591159650054562

tacobender

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #246 on: June 21, 2025, 06:38:35 PM »
Why did the Nazis hate the Jews? Can anybody actually come up with a logical explanation? Could the Jews have possibly done something to the Nazis? Or Hitler?

Van_Bilderass

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #247 on: June 21, 2025, 07:05:17 PM »
Trump is already getting his victory speech ready  :D There may still be some more bombs that fly between Israel and Iran, but it will all fizzle out.

You see there is one important thing here I'm assuming you didn't consider as probably don't believe it, but the Iranian regime do not seek war with Israel despite what people might say.

Their primary objective (based on prophetical reasons) is to stay in power Iran. As long as they are not made to look weak or like cucks, they will take the negotiations/peace route

Yeah we will see if Iran responds, if they can respond.

Iran doesn't want war with Israel, as some analysts have said if Israel stopped the genocide, perhaps released all the Palestinian detainees, peace would be immediate. Iran has also sought better relations with the US. According to the Iranians and various analysts at least. There are also Jews who live in Iran and, again according to some analysts, one of whom I watched yesterday say this, feel less "anti-semitism" there than Jews feel in the US.

Seymour Hersh whom I quoted above was right, the bombing came on the weekend.

Quote from: Seymour Hersh
This is a report on what is most likely to happen in Iran, as early as this weekend, according to Israeli insiders and American officials I’ve relied upon for decades. It will entail heavy American bombing. I have vetted this report with a longtime US official in Washington, who told me that all will be “under control” if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “departs.” Just how that might happen, short of his assassination, is not known.

So Khamenei might "depart" soon but it's said he's already appointed two others to succeed him. So regime change is still on the agenda I think, despite Trump now saying they aren't after a regime change.

A nuclear scientist, who was killed recently by Israel, said in a video that he knew what was coming and he left it in the capable hands of the younger generation.


Flexacon

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #248 on: June 21, 2025, 07:38:00 PM »
Yeah we will see if Iran responds, if they can respond.

Iran doesn't want war with Israel, as some analysts have said if Israel stopped the genocide, perhaps released all the Palestinian detainees, peace would be immediate. Iran has also sought better relations with the US. According to the Iranians and various analysts at least. There are also Jews who live in Iran and, again according to some analysts, one of whom I watched yesterday say this, feel less "anti-semitism" there than Jews feel in the US.

Seymour Hersh whom I quoted above was right, the bombing came on the weekend.

So Khamenei might "depart" soon but it's said he's already appointed two others to succeed him.

It has very little to do with the genocide.

The Iranian regime will forever be preparing for war, but they don't seek war (yet)

They are waiting for a descendent of prophet Mohammed called Mahdi to appear. Jesus is gonna show up too and they team up like the avengers and the lead all muslims to war against the antichrist and some Jews (not all)

You can forget what analysts, podcasters and doomers are saying, because until Mahdi, Jesus and the Antichrist show up, the Iranian regime have no appetite for war (only preparing for war)


Van_Bilderass

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Re: Israel strikes Iran - 06-12-25
« Reply #249 on: June 21, 2025, 08:00:58 PM »
It has very little to do with genocide.

The Iranian regime will forever be preparing for war, but they don't seek war (yet)

They are waiting for a descendent of prophet Mohammed called Mahdi to appear. Jesus is gonna show up too and they team up like the avengers and the lead all muslims to war against the antichrist and Jews.

You can forget what analysts, podcasters and doomers are saying, because until Mahdi, Jesus and the Antichrist show up, the Iranian regime have no desire for war (only preparing for war)

I'm referring to Gaza and the Palestinian territories in case I wasn't clear. Iran says they have sunk hundreds of billions into Palestine, and have a special government account for Palestine support. So they are committed to their cause. It's only Iran and Yemen who really support Palestine, they are abandoned by the Gulf states and other Sunni states.
I don't think the Iranians ever wanted the bomb, they just wanted some leverage. If the clerics take their religion seriously I'm pretty sure they see using a nuclear bomb as a great sin. That's what Khamenei has always stated anyway. Religious people are notoriously corrupt, maybe the clerics want power for power's sake, and live a life of luxury and hedonism. Maybe, maybe not. I think some Muslims take their religion seriously, like Bin Laden who moved into a cave, when he was immensely wealthy and could have lived a life of hedonism instead. I'm not sure but I think Judaism is more permissive and in my understanding there's not much emphasis on the afterlife. But someone could educate me if I'm wrong.

Evangelical Christians wait for Jesus and Armageddon to start in Israel and they see this Iran war as hastening that process, it's an end-of-days cult. I think, correct me if I'm wrong, that in their interpretation Jews have a chance then to convert or be killed. Jews wait for the building of the third temple, and the Al Aqsa Mosque needs to be destroyed, and then their Messiah, the real Messiah, unlike the son of a whore Jesus, will appear (Jesus is in hell boiling in a vat of shit and semen now according to the Talmud) :D
How Christian Zionists worship the Jews who hate Christ is a little hard to understand, but all these religions are lunatic as far as I'm concerned. Israel founded and funded Hagee's "Christians for Jews" in the US, they may not have that much influence but I'm sure they're useful.