ronnie must have read the "reports" in Flex about how Jay was just as wide as he was last year.
This might be why he is choosing to play the 'size game" again, after coming in smaller (but sharper) last year.
Personally, I think it might be a mistake - remember what he looked like in 2004..
You are right about him choosing to play the size game after last year's O in which Jay was close to Ronnie (sizewise) - It's gonna be like 2002 and 2003 again.
But I disagree with you about 2004 - sure he was carrying some water when he was on stage itself, but if you see him in the press conference, you'd have noticed that he was absolutely dry and shredded at the same weight. So, I'm guessing he made some kind of mistake with his fluid intake, resulting in the water-laden look that he sported on stage that year.
As for his ab-distention that year - I think it was more due to him being careless and failing to hold his abs in, rather than being unable to do so. Look at when he walks up to the front during some of the callouts in the challenge round in the 2004 Mr O - he seemed to be aware that they were going to call for an ab and thigh shot and thus, kept his abs tight. So, even at a heavy weight (like around 300 lbs on stage), I don't think Ronnie would have a distention problem (if he paid attention to detail) or a conditioning problem (if he didn't make a mistake with fluid intake).