Inflation drops from 9.1% to 8.5%

[Mayday]

Year end CPI target is 3.9% and year end 2023 target is 4.4%.

Year end rate target is 3.4% and year end 2023 rate target is 3.8%.

The World’s richest man who would never sell Tesla shares sold another 6.9B in Tesla shares making the total somewhere 23B+.

Stocks rallied.

S&P today is -12.5% from all time high. While people keep claiming ‘bearish’ they are positioned euphoric bullish believing they are front running the next QE……

 the problem with that is the next QE is going to be on food and is designed to increase inflation on food and energy so you have less income to spend on consumer products made offshore. That is the de-globalisation plan.

We have Google and others refusing to provide future guidance. Why? Because they are ad based revenue platform and with consumer demand being annihilated this coming 3yrs+, business cuts Marketing and advertising expenditure first and we cut it hard.

[FitnessFrenzy]

5 % inflation in 12 months. In 3 years, people will stop talking about it, and it will no longer be an issue.

[Moontrane]

5 % inflation in 12 months. In 3 years, people will stop talking about it, and it will no longer be an issue.

Interesting and provocative predictions.

In three years we'll be 7 months into a second Biden or new administration.  Which do you predict?

[Marty Champions]

gas price seems to be the indicator of everything, slightly down because many quit buying

[IroNat]

Musk cashing up for Twitter buy?

[Mayday]

gas price seems to be the indicator of everything, slightly down because many quit buying

Yep.

At the start of the demand cycle It lags on the way up and then it overshoots when equities rotate into commodities which causes the sudden spike in fuel price.

Fuel prices coming down flags the end of the demand cycle and entry into the down cycle.

During the down cycle stocks get crushed and many asset classes get nuked.

[Pray_4_War]

It's down to only 8.5%.  Oh wow, I feel better.  lol.

[Rambone]

It's down to only 8.5%.  Oh wow, I feel better.  lol.

This.

[Coach is Back!]

Year end CPI target is 3.9% and year end 2023 target is 4.4%.

Year end rate target is 3.4% and year end 2023 rate target is 3.8%.

The World’s richest man who would never sell Tesla shares sold another 6.9B in Tesla shares making the total somewhere 23B+.

Stocks rallied.

S&P today is -12.5% from all time high. While people keep claiming ‘bearish’ they are positioned euphoric bullish believing they are front running the next QE……

 the problem with that is the next QE is going to be on food and is designed to increase inflation on food and energy so you have less income to spend on consumer products made offshore. That is the de-globalisation plan.

We have Google and others refusing to provide future guidance. Why? Because they are ad based revenue platform and with consumer demand being annihilated this coming 3yrs+, business cuts Marketing and advertising expenditure first and we cut it hard.

Are you praising something that should have never happened? We’re still in a recession

[OneMoreRep]

the problem with that is the next QE is going to be on food and is designed to increase inflation on food and energy so you have less income to spend on consumer products made offshore. That is the de-globalisation plan.

Is this speculation on your part or is there any official statement from the FED to suggest that quantitative easing will be towards food?

Let me know and thanks!

"1"

[Mayday]

Are you praising something that should have never happened? We’re still in a recession

When enough health and money supply data was available I sided with the ‘on purpose’ tinfoil people on here last year.

WWIII will be fought with germ and economic warefare.

99% seem to think the US want to simply act like a pack of girls (excuse my language) but they are in WWIII trying to ensure they remain the super power and that we don’t all end up speaking Mandarin or even worse, nuked.

As an outsider of the US as the world turns to shit, magically the US happens to be fairing the best and all others are bleeding. Funny that……. De-globalisation is going on and it just so happens the largest losing party is China who is #2…..   absolutely this is planed and should happen if you don’t want to be speaking Mandarin.

Is this speculation on your part or is there any official statement from the FED to suggest that quantitative easing will be towards food?

Let me know and thanks!

"1"

It’s Not QE.

You have QT for the time being as the Fed dumps assets.

Stimmy will likely come on food because the food supply chain has been wrecked and politics kind of suggests that would be a good policy. So we get some asset suppression via QT and food/energy inflation via stimmy. Inflations runs hotter than normal but we end up poorer as we pay more for basic things while assets get more and more expensive.

This is the cycle.

We are going back to the 1960s. You won’t be buying a new iPhone when you are struggling to feed your family and heat your home.

[youandme]

And goods/services will stay high even after inflation dissipates.

I remember 2007/8 when they changed the size of tuna cans and prices went up. Never went back.

[njflex]

And goods/services will stay high even after inflation dissipates.

I remember 2007/8 when they changed the size of tuna cans and prices went up. Never went back.

gas too it will drop but still stay higher than before,,never 2.99 or 3.50 again..

[FitnessFrenzy]

Moontrane, I am not trying to be a smart ass. It is just my prediction.

Regarding the next presidential election; I have no idea who will win.

[Coach is Back!]

When enough health and money supply data was available I sided with the ‘on purpose’ tinfoil people on here last year.

WWIII will be fought with germ and economic warefare.

99% seem to think the US want to simply act like a pack of girls (excuse my language) but they are in WWIII trying to ensure they remain the super power and that we don’t all end up speaking Mandarin or even worse, nuked.

As an outsider of the US as the world turns to shit, magically the US happens to be fairing the best and all others are bleeding. Funny that……. De-globalisation is going on and it just so happens the largest losing party is China who is #2…..   absolutely this is planed and should happen if you don’t want to be speaking Mandarin.

It’s Not QE.

You have QT for the time being as the Fed dumps assets.

Stimmy will likely come on food because the food supply chain has been wrecked and politics kind of suggests that would be a good policy. So we get some asset suppression via QT and food/energy inflation via stimmy. Inflations runs hotter than normal but we end up poorer as we pay more for basic things while assets get more and more expensive.

This is the cycle.

We are going back to the 1960s. You won’t be buying a new iPhone when you are struggling to feed your family and heat your home.

Nothing “tin foil” about it. It literally began the week after Biden’s inauguration. Don’t be a Krugman. It doesn’t take an economist to know this, however, economists did warn and predicted what would happen if Biden got in. They were right

[OneMoreRep]

It’s Not QE.

You have QT for the time being as the Fed dumps assets.

Stimmy will likely come on food because the food supply chain has been wrecked and politics kind of suggests that would be a good policy. So we get some asset suppression via QT and food/energy inflation via stimmy.

That's still QE. If the FED has to purchase US treasury bonds, in order for the US government to have more cash on hand, which they will then provide US citizens with in the form of stimulus checks to facilitate buying food products (think modern day welfare coupons), then it's still QE just with poor person's makeup and dress on.

Inflations runs hotter than normal but we end up poorer as we pay more for basic things while assets get more and more expensive.

This is the cycle.

If you are then proposing that the FED will finally employ true QT (they have been promising tightening for a while, but their balance sheet doesn't suggest any serious tightening) AND actually sell off some of their bonds and do reverse-repos, then "maybe" that will counterbalance any small efforts they take by way of QE towards food-assistance for the average consumer.

We are going back to the 1960s. You won’t be buying a new iPhone when you are struggling to feed your family and heat your home.

If this pans out as you suggest, the FED's actions would essentially be heralding the beginnings of the US becoming a welfare state. That's really fucking doom and gloom brother. I'm not saying it's impossible, as I do believe an economic implosion of the US financial system is starting to look very likely (Debt-to-GDP ratio at 123.45% + $30 Trillion national debt + highest inflation in over 40 years + artificially plumped up unemployment rates + International alliances/BRICS being forged to knock the USD as world reserve currency + widening wealth gap between US rich/poor + overwhelming loss of faith in the US government by its population), but damn would it be very sad. On average, many economists that are also strong historians will tell you that we are now at the tail end of the US empire given what we've seen from it's true boom around 1945 after WW2 to its current state as a nation (we have a decrepit, dementia-ridden, prompter-reading 80yr old leading the most powerful nation in the world). Others have also mentioned that typically great empires have a span of about 250yrs from inception to end and the USA is slowly reaching that expiration mark, at least by 2026.

Nonetheless, all speculation..

"1"

[Mayday]

Nothing “tin foil” about it. It literally began the week after Biden’s inauguration. Don’t be a Krugman. It doesn’t take an economist to know this, however, economists did warn and predicted what would happen if Biden got in. They were right

We have left and right govts here aswell. Left spends more. Right doesn’t. Economists mostly get everything wrong, they provide commentary based on theory. Agree that Saying a left govt will spend more doesn’t take an economist as you said. Saying it will rain whilst standing outside and getting wet is also easy.

If this pans out as you suggest, the FED's actions would essentially be heralding the beginnings of the US becoming a welfare state. That's really fucking doom and gloom brother. I'm not saying it's impossible, as I do believe an economic implosion of the US financial system is starting to look very likely (Debt-to-GDP ratio at 123.45% + $30 Trillion national debt + highest inflation in over 40 years + artificially plumped up unemployment rates + International alliances/BRICS being forged to knock the USD as world reserve currency + widening wealth gap between US rich/poor + overwhelming loss of faith in the US government by its population), but damn would it be very sad. On average, many economists that are also strong historians will tell you that we are now at the tail end of the US empire given what we've seen from it's true boom around 1945 after WW2 to its current state as a nation (we have a decrepit, dementia-ridden, prompter-reading 80yr old leading the most powerful nation in the world). Others have also mentioned that typically great empires have a span of about 250yrs from inception to end and the USA is slowly reaching that expiration mark, at least by 2026.

Nonetheless, all speculation..

"1"

It’s been going on for 2yrs already but people can’t comprehend that it continues despite the fact we have had a pandemic, Monkeypox and now a 3rd virus in China. In addition to viruses we also have a war going on and the US flying into Taiwan in a military plane to piss off China. Food planting season was massively disrupted, energy is being shut off and ongoing shortages.

All these world events you see result in a tightening of everything. Food up 40%+ energy up 40%+ new cars up 20%+ product shortages everywhere, wages up 5%-10%. 2yrs of the largest inflationary event ever seen and 98% missed it and still can’t see it.

I don’t feel it’s room and gloom at all. It will bring meaning to the word ‘value’ as things become more expensive.

As for QE if the money supply isn’t expanding its not QE. Right now the US has been flat for many months. They won’t expand it until they get inflation back to their target level.

[OneMoreRep]

As for QE if the money supply isn’t expanding its not QE. Right now the US has been flat for many months. They won’t expand it until they get inflation back to their target level.

Agree with everything else you said. But you and I both know there's is a difference in inflation (expansion of money supply) and quantitative easing (a central bank increasing the liquidity of a financial system usually by purchasing treasury bonds). Unless the liquidity increases the velocity of money, it's hard to say whether any QE would do anything to current inflation. We did see how during COVID most QE was plumping up hard assets the financial institutions held, but had not increased CPI due to a lack of velocity on the ground. The counter argument to that is if by the FED buying bonds it potentially leads to lowering the interest rates on savings and loans, which could then help to lower inflation.

What I wonder is whether they do go back to printing money, how generous of a rise shall we see in hard assets (stocks, real estate etc).

"1"

[Mayday]

OMR good points. I was watching velocity at the very start looking for it to ramp up and CPI follow.

But Velocity did bugger all over the last 2yrs despite the fact the M3 rose 40% in 2yrs. 10T pumped in added 10T, there was no multiple effect in velocity. So we got the inflation today with a 1:1 velocity pretty much. CPI is a lag and it took 2yrs to show its ugly face after we saw the trigger pulled in M2.

Rates to 3.4% by year end. Bond market is pricing in rate cuts in Jan and will be proven wrong, market has a Dotcom capitulation as reality hits they are fucked. Stimmy of food and energy pumps in meanwhile the Fed has 7T of assets to dump into the market to put downward pressure on property and rent inflation while at the same time achieving food/energy inflation to lower consumer consumption overall.

Something like that. People will think it’s QE but unless that M2/M3 moves we will see a forced reallocation of our household spending which is back towards the 60s style. Eat at home. 1 car. 1 tv for 20yrs etc. .

[OneMoreRep]

OMR good points. I was watching velocity at the very start looking for it to ramp up and CPI follow.

But Velocity did bugger all over the last 2yrs despite the fact the M3 rose 40% in 2yrs. 10T pumped in added 10T, there was no multiple effect in velocity. So we got the inflation today with a 1:1 velocity pretty much. CPI is a lag and it took 2yrs to show its ugly face after we saw the trigger pulled in M2.

Rates to 3.4% by year end. Bond market is pricing in rate cuts in Jan and will be proven wrong, market has a Dotcom capitulation as reality hits they are fucked. Stimmy of food and energy pumps in meanwhile the Fed has 7T of assets to dump into the market to put downward pressure on property and rent inflation while at the same time achieving food/energy inflation to lower consumer consumption overall.

Something like that. People will think it’s QE but unless that M2/M3 moves we will see a forced reallocation of our household spending which is back towards the 60s style. Eat at home. 1 car. 1 tv for 20yrs etc. .

Sooner or later I figured if the FED dumps assets, we would see an overwhelming supply of real estate on the market, as they own a large chunk of mortgage backed securities. If your postulation is correct, then we'll likely see a cold winter coming up in all markets (stocks, crypto, real estate etc). Wouldn't be surprised if that's when they reset the monetary system and implement CBDCs as they've been planning for.

Will suck for many and those with good-great reserves and certain job types should fend "ok". Have you read the article from the WEF (the one that implies you will own nothing by 2030)?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/

For some reason (and I could be wrong), I think cryptocurrency and blockchain technology might come out on top. Although the bulk of my money is in stocks and real estate, I am starting to believe that blockchain technology will pave the way to the ultimate system of control that the powers that be (WEF, IMF, Central Banks) are aiming for.

"1"

[pamith]

My nikka

[Mayday]

Sooner or later I figured if the FED dumps assets, we would see an overwhelming supply of real estate on the market, as they own a large chunk of mortgage backed securities. If your postulation is correct, then we'll likely see a cold winter coming up in all markets (stocks, crypto, real estate etc). Wouldn't be surprised if that's when they reset the monetary system and implement CBDCs as they've been planning for.

Will suck for many and those with good-great reserves and certain job types should fend "ok". Have you read the article from the WEF (the one that implies you will own nothing by 2030)?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/

For some reason (and I could be wrong), I think cryptocurrency and blockchain technology might come out on top. Although the bulk of my money is in stocks and real estate, I am starting to believe that blockchain technology will pave the way to the ultimate system of control that the powers that be (WEF, IMF, Central Banks) are aiming for.

"1"

I have NFI But I look at the S&P 1969 to 1982 and you see an initial crash then 13yrs until it finally gets above and stays above the previous ATH prior to the crash….. 13yrs…. Yet inflation ran like an absolute mofo in the 70s.

Today we have full degen on stocks, full YOLO and these same people cheer on QE because they think stocks are going to rip again. The 1970s tells us otherwise.

Add on top of this it’s all Boomers who own stocks and property and have retired. So their 401k gets belted to oblivion, living costs are rocketing up so what do you think they look at selling? All these investment properties up their sleeve. That’s additional downward pressure on property for the next decade on top of rates and Fed balance sheet.

Crypto I think decouples from equities but I dunno about its lifespan. Im more interested in Agriculture, mining and metals to be honest.

[OneMoreRep]

I have NFI But I look at the S&P 1969 to 1982 and you see an initial crash then 13yrs until it finally gets above and stays above the previous ATH prior to the crash….. 13yrs…. Yet inflation ran like an absolute mofo in the 70s.

Today we have full degen on stocks, full YOLO and these same people cheer on QE because they think stocks are going to rip again. The 1970s tells us otherwise.

Add on top of this it’s all Boomers who own stocks and property and have retired. So their 401k gets belted to oblivion, living costs are rocketing up so what do you think they look at selling? All these investment properties up their sleeve. That’s additional downward pressure on property for the next decade on top of rates and Fed balance sheet.

Crypto I think decouples from equities but I dunno about its lifespan. Im more interested in Agriculture, mining and metals to be honest.

I allocated a small chunk into gold and silver, but it's not my forte. It's truly a hedge against the collapse of the US dollar as reserve currency.

I'd like to get more into the raw agricultural side of things (think Bill Gates buying up land all throughout USA - land that likely is fertile for agriculture), but I just don't know enough. I do take part in commodities future contracts, but not as heavily as I'd like.

"1"

[Marty Champions]

the gov has too many levers to pull on to manipulate price on every single industry.

[Mayday]

I allocated a small chunk into gold and silver, but it's not my forte. It's truly a hedge against the collapse of the US dollar as reserve currency.

I'd like to get more into the raw agricultural side of things (think Bill Gates buying up land all throughout USA - land that likely is fertile for agriculture), but I just don't know enough. I do take part in commodities future contracts, but not as heavily as I'd like.

"1"

Metals still hurt going down but they’ll rally for years once the dust settles. Copper and silver is what I’ll be looking at but paper contracts only. I did physical back in 2011 and it only served to be a total waste of time. Agriculture just buy an ETF and buy big mining shares, BHP etc.

Dotcom took 24mths to play out which takes us to Jan 2024. Multiple legs down.

GFC took 17mths to play out which takes us to May 2023. A few small dumps with one large final capitulation. Takes us to 2,100 range S&P if it’s truly bad otherwise 2,800-3,200.

We are currently tracking to the GFC movement but our capitulation event is around Jan 2023 timeframe.

History tells us once over 5% inflation, rates rise to meet CPI for multiple years before coming down. Every, single, time.

Meanwhile The bond market is pricing in rate cuts in Jan which the market is also supporting. Something never done in history they are saying the Fed will do.

On the contrary if CPI stays sticky at 7%-8% then rates will go up to 7%-8% and we will know true pain.