Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[obsidian]

I can understand the attraction of Bitcoin for privacy.

On crime TV shows they use it to be anonymous in paying and receiving payments from illicit activities.

Bitcoin does not have privacy. The privacy coins are Zcash and Monero. Both those were designed off the Bitcoin model, and both have been around for many years now. They also both have supplies comparable to Bitcoin. But the privacy feature is actually hampering their adoption. Governments want to be able to track crypto transactions. That's why they prefer the non-privacy coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, etc.

[IroNat]

Bitcoin does not have privacy. The privacy coins are Zcash and Monero. Both those were designed off the Bitcoin model, and both have been around for many years now. They also both have supplies comparable to Bitcoin. But the privacy feature is actually hampering their adoption. Governments want to be able to track crypto transactions. That's why they prefer the non-privacy coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, etc.

Well, whatever they use on the TV shows to pay the hitman.

Makes for a good plot device.

[obsidian]

Once Peter Schiff and Jim Cramer turn bullish on BTC, sell! Oh wait........

[loco]

we can use BTC to buy whatever we want too

only BTC goes up in value over the long term

[IroNat]

This time it's different.

[Mayday]

@Mayday - bro, you are a smart guy, but you are confusing concepts (and you are not the first do to so).

I'll and explain it simply by using a very simple imaginary hypothetical to explain the concept. Please read below carefully, (and be sure to watch the Jeff Booth video I posted above).

Lets say we have 100 identical people, living in a country, who all annually produce 1 apple each. And lets say the total amount of money in supply is $100, and they only thing they spend money on is apples. The cost of each apple would be 1$ (being 100 apples divided by a total of $100 in circulation).

Now, imagine that the supply of money is fixed. Does that mean that people would all be content just with one apple? No, of course not. They would still be incentivized to be productive, and to get more apples from others, or to grow more. The human desire to be efficient, productive, and maximize returns does not diminish just because the supply of money is fixed.

So, now imagine a scenario where with fixed money supply, everyone has become more productive. Imagine that due to better farming, more hard work, or just the luck of better weather, that they now produce 10 apples each. What happens to the cost of apples as a result of this increased productivity? Prices of apples fall! That's right  - each apple, now only costs 10 cents. Increased productivity resulted in DEFLATION.

Similarly, lets now take a scenario where they are just still producing 1 apple (ie no increase in productivity), but the Government increases money supply by 10x. So now we have $1000 in supply, but the same number of apples being produced. Now each apple will cost $10. Now we have INFLATION in the price, yet there has been zero improvement in productivity.

Its really a very basic concept.

You do not need money printing to produce economic growth. Try playing monopoly without money being added into the system. You will see the same incentives still apply. Property owners still want to maximize their profits, and the best allocators of capital over time will still thrive over others. All money is, is a ledger. The problem with fiat currencies of course, is that they are all corrupt ledgers (some more corrupt than others), whereas Bitcoin is not. And this is why Bitcoin, over time, succeeds against all fiat currencies. All fiat currencies devalue over time (resulting in inflation, as the same amount of currency purchases less over time), and just because some devalue more than others, it does not mean that the slowest devaluing currency is actually gaining in real terms. Just like if you had 10 horses all running backwards, it does not mean that the least worst running horse is actually running forwards (although in relative terms, compared to the other horses, it may be appearing to do so - which is actually an illusion as over time, none are actually getting any closer to the finish line).

Similarly you do not need inflation or money printing to create productivity. For example, this is why in the US between 1880 and 1914, there was a surge in productivity, yet inflation averaged 0.1% per annum during this period Why? Because they money supply was fixed (ie on the Gold Standard). So its really absolutely absurd to suggest that "if you have a fixed money supply you fail". Give it some thought - you will eventually get it.

You are really confusing real value and productivity with nominal prices when you say that "the largest/fastest property gains come during the money printing inflationary cycles." I'll give you another very basic example. Lets say the average home in a country is worth 100K. How to we make everyone millionaires? We just debase the currency and print 10x the amount of money, and boom, each houses now worth 1 million! If only it were that simple So yes, everyone is now 10x richer, but that money now can only purchase 1/10 as much. Its like having a perpetual motion machine which defies the laws of physics. Many politicians fall into this trap, and they all realize eventually learn the hard way.

So its really absolutely absurd to suggest that "if you have a fixed money supply you fail".

You had me at ‘you are a smart guy’    

If I don’t understand the concept here are some softball questions:

First softball question:
Why would anyone invest in production when your output devalues meaning your capital is the thing of increasing value/incentive? What is the incentive to trigger investment?

Second softball question:
From the consumer demand view, why would you want to consume more if your currency increases in value faster than falling prices of goods you want to purchase?

Third softball question:
If it’s supposed to be fixed supply and fixed wages, money flows to the top and peasants go broke (eg Monopoly). How do you prevent this?

Lastly, if Jeff Booth believes in a fixed supply where the capital becomes more valuable, and today BTC capital is becoming more valuable, why does he promote HoDLing today but then believes nobody will HoDL when his fixed supply model promotes the exact same Behaviour?


If you can answer the above without tripping over I will be impressed as I have had some very smart dudes give up because their answers always came back to a model that worked the same as today which is rising prices & rising wages or falling prices & falling wages.

Imagine walking into the office and celebrating a -5% wage decrease lol 😂  don’t people see how retarded that is and yet this would happen to prevent a fixed supply from failing. Falling prices = falling wages.

[Mayday]

I’ll give the answer to everyone about WHY we use inflationary monetary systems.

When you make your currency the depreciating capital, people want to get rid of it and invest into production to earn value greater than the currency.

Currency is supposed to depreciate and rates are there to incentivise/disincentivise. We raise rates to incentivise holding currency/bonds which sucks liquidity out of productivity and causes collapse of poor investment. Only the best survives.

During the rate hike cycle, shortages occur as investment liquidity is sucked out which causes prices to rise in property and rents. At peak rate cycle we have cleansed poor investment and had all money flow back into currency and property of which mortgage LVR is very low.

We then begin the investment cycle all over again where rates are lowered which means less incentive to hold currency and investment into productivity is encourages.

This is why property has the largest growth during the hike rise phase and why the S&P has its greatest growth during the rate decline phase.

[Humble Narcissist]

I’ll give the answer to everyone about WHY we use inflationary monetary systems.

When you make your currency the depreciating capital, people want to get rid of it and invest into production to earn value greater than the currency.

Currency is supposed to depreciate and rates are there to incentivise/disincentivise. We raise rates to incentivise holding currency/bonds which sucks liquidity out of productivity and causes collapse of poor investment. Only the best survives.

During the rate hike cycle, shortages occur as investment liquidity is sucked out which causes prices to rise in property and rents. At peak rate cycle we have cleansed poor investment and had all money flow back into currency and property of which mortgage LVR is very low.

We then begin the investment cycle all over again where rates are lowered which means less incentive to hold currency and investment into productivity is encourages.

This is why property has the largest growth during the hike rise phase and why the S&P has its greatest growth during the rate decline phase.

Thanks for this explanation.

[IroNat]

I heard that you should keep your cash in mattresses so I invest in them.

So far, I think it's going well.

[affeman]

I heard that you should keep your cash in mattresses so I invest in them.

So far, I think it's going well.

Great choice, as they will go up in value over the long term, whereas paper/fiat declines...

[gib]

Great choice, as they will go up in value over the long term, whereas paper/fiat declines...

Now if only they were mathematically fixed in supply, infinitely divisible into any amount, instantly portable to anywhere in the world, at almost zero cost, were accepted globally as a medium of exchange, were becoming increasingly integrated into our financial system, were being adopted by nation states, decentralized from any Government control, had a pending US ETF application possibly due to be approved by the SEC, and had an obvious adoption curve as becoming a major asset class just in its infancy. Then, you might just be on to something... . Until then, if you like something physical, stick with gold. If you like something superior to gold on all monetary metrics, then Bitcoin is your #1 choice.

[Flexacon]

You can relax now Gib, no point trying to explain it to the village idiot.

Wall St and all the media they have in their back pockets will do the BTC pimping now. Not to mention all the account managers who will be trying to pimp the ETF to clients so they can collect their commission.

[gib]

You can relax now Gib, no point trying to explain it to the village idiot.

Wall St and all the media they have in their back pockets will do the BTC pimping now. Not to mention all the account managers who will be trying to pimp the ETF to clients so they can collect their commission.

Ha ha - yes indeed. Well you can lead a Getbigger to water, but sometimes you just can't make them drink. Still, I try...

[IroNat]

There are different sides to the Bitcoin saga.

One is that Bitcoin will one day be a popular medium of exchange like fiat currency.  Someday you will go to Walmart and buy stuff at the checkout with Bitcoin.

Another is that Bitcoin has intrinsic value itself, like gold or silver or company stock, and the value will rise and fall. 

The most popular viewpoint and the one that generates excitement is that Bitcoin has intrinsic value.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/price/

[gib]

There are different sides to the Bitcoin saga.

One is that Bitcoin will one day be a popular medium of exchange like fiat currency.  Someday you will go to Walmart and buy stuff at the checkout with Bitcoin.

Another is that Bitcoin has intrinsic value itself, like gold or silver or company stock, and the value will rise and fall. 

The most popular viewpoint and the one that generates excitement is that Bitcoin has intrinsic value.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/price/

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. But that is its strength, and not any weakness, as its various other qualities, including its absolute scarcity, make it the ultimate store of value, noting that whilst BTC as an asset does not produce anything, it does as an asset, take considerable amount of effort to create, with a pre-defined cap on supply. (Fiat currency also has no intrinsic value by the way, with its only value derived from the value others are willing to attribute to it, only unlike BTC it can be infinitely printed - hence the increasing an unstoppable trend of converting fiat to BTC over time).

As for being a medium of exchange, it most definitely is one - that should be obvious. Indeed, globally, Bitcoin is already the most accepted universally accepted currency other than the USD). However, just like other stores of value (real estate, art, gold, etc), we don't typically use it for "day to day transactions", one reason being that it is still in an adoption phase and thus rapidly increasing in value over time (although unlike real estate, art, gold, etc it is easily usable in any amount, if wishing to do so.) Most people would use it to store value, given it is still rapidly appreciating, and then if needed, convert small amounts of the BTC into fiat to use at a country level. However over time, and especially as its rate of global adoption growth eventually slows, we may we see a lot more transactions on the 2nd layer Lightening Network. For those who now want to use it consistently for day to day to transactions, they just have a BTC backed Visa card which can then be used globally, anywhere where Visa cards are used for fiat transactions (which is what a number of my BTC global nomad friends do, or they can of course also use it anywhere Lightening payment are accepted).

[Quilzechews]

There are different sides to the Bitcoin saga.

One is that Bitcoin will one day be a popular medium of exchange like fiat currency.  Someday you will go to Walmart and buy stuff at the checkout with Bitcoin.

Another is that Bitcoin has intrinsic value itself, like gold or silver or company stock, and the value will rise and fall. 

The most popular viewpoint and the one that generates excitement is that Bitcoin has intrinsic value.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/price/

Bitcoin will never be used to by things in a store like fiat, think of it as a goldbar

[gib]

Bitcoin will never be used to by things in a store like fiat, think of it as a goldbar

Exactly - gold has historically been a pretty good store of value, but as you said, we don't typically go around buying things in Gold bars either, and that has not prevented gold from being a store of value for 5000+ years.

With BTC, it is of course actually far more feasible to do, in that it is infinitely divisible, instantly transferrable, portable with no physical mass, etc, but for now (as I stated for the reasons above in my earlier post), most of us don't typically use our Sats for this purpose.

[gib]

Well gents, we blasted decisively through 46K today. Bring on 47!

[IroNat]

Well gents, we blasted decisively through 46K today. Bring on 47!

What is causing the value of bitcoin to increase?

[Flexacon]

What is causing the value of bitcoin to increase?

It's about to get spot ETF approval.

Over the next 6 months you will be bombarded with BTC ETF advertising and financial news outlets will be trying to put the idea into your head that now might be a good time to look at buying bitcoin. People are front running this.

[gib]

It's about to get spot ETF approval.

Over the next 6 months you will be bombarded with BTC ETF advertising and financial news outlets will be trying to put the idea into your head that now might be a good time to look at buying bitcoin. People are front running this.

And remember, if you believe that an ETF will soon be approved, and/or if it is actually approved, you still have a MASSIVE opportunity to front-run Wall St. These global financial titans and HNW's move slowly and conservatively, and their money will flow into BTC in the years and decades to come. Still so much time to get in ahead. We don't often get such obvious "no-brainer" financial opportunities in life.

Wouldn't it be nice if all us GetBiggers could pat ourselves on the back in years to come knowing that we financially benefitted from our time on this website, as a result became wholecoiners.

[gib]

https://unchainedcrypto.com/how-will-a-spot-bitcoin-etf-in-the-u-s-affect-the-rest-of-the-world/

[gib]

About to pass though 47,000, next target 48K.

[Mayday]

Bitcoin has continued new supply out to 2140. Bitcoin is divisible down to 8 decimal places. I will use sandpit maths and basic assumptions in the below but my workings ring true in the theme I outline.

We can say gold is a fixed form of measurement in ounces but production influences floating supply and with Bitcoin we have a capped 21M of which supply is inbound for 120yrs but it is divisible in it’s base size measurement.

In other words being divisible to 8 decimal places is equivalent to having production changes. Ie divisible = future supply giving us a total available supply of 13 numerical places (5+8) + 120yrs of new production.

The argument from maxis that is 21M = 21M. However 1BTC has 100M satoshis so the supply is 21M x 100M. Using sandpits maths with huge assumptions,  at peak adoption which is 1% own 45% of global wealth, we get 80M people owning around 8M Bitcoins. Today 8M Bitcoins is owned by roughly 0.002M people which has us at 0.000025% of the peak adoption.

Some will look at that adoption and think they are early. The problem is we have 2,000 people at the top end when we need 80,000,000 which requires the same 8,000,000 to be diluted over and over and over until we achieve that spread. If you want price to continually go up it’s a question of can the dilution of Ownership outpace its divisible nature and desirability.

This gets to why I can see the possibility for lower lows set in the future. At 80M people peak adoption it’s 10BTC per person in the top 1%. Saylor has 120,000……  yes I realise the numbers aren’t exact but hopefully you get my point.

It Doesn’t mean it can’t happen but adoption at the top end adoption is a real fucking problem right now.  Stop looking at Saylor buying and start asking who the hell is selling. Multiple sellers dumping on Saylor = inverse adoption.

[Mayday]

It's about to get spot ETF approval.

Over the next 6 months you will be bombarded with BTC ETF advertising and financial news outlets will be trying to put the idea into your head that now might be a good time to look at buying bitcoin. People are front running this.

48.4K is the Fib so we are getting close now, might need to go towards 50k to trap everyone.

Perhaps BTC peak in Feb, ETH peak in Mar and a nasty retrace.