The X-factor in all this is the libs who want Newsom gone but don't necessarily want a GOP replacement.
Will they stay home?
Will they hold their nose and keep Newsom until the regular gubernatorial election, where they can boot him for another lib?
Or, is Newsom so toxic that they'll help recall him that they'll jettison him but keep enough libs in the state government to keep Elder (or whoever would replace Newsom) at bay, until next November?