Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[gib]

Just as I suspected, Solana transactions are failing at record levels. I saw those failed transactions on Solana Beach. Looks like they are having trouble coping with all the spam.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-struggling-record-seventy-five-percent-trasnactions-fail-memecoin-mania

Solana struggles: Record 75% of user txs are failing... or are they?

The Solana network appears to be struggling to keep up with a ravenous demand for memecoins, with data showing roughly 75% of transactions on the network currently failing.

Roughly three-quarters of all transactions on the Solana network have been failing amid a deluge of activity brought by the recent memecoin mania on Solana; however, proponents say the data is being widely misinterpreted.

Dune Analytics data shows that on April 4, just over 75% of all “non-vote” Solana transactions failed, the highest failure rate on record.



75.4% of non-vote transactions on Solana have failed. Source: Dune Analytics

The uptick has been paralleled by a recent uproar from Solana users on social media, complaining of failed transactions and degraded user experience.

In an April 4 post to X, pseudonymous trader Altcoin Sherpa said that while he still believed Solana would cement itself as the blockchain network for retail adoption, he noted that the current user experience was currently less than ideal.

“As much as I think that SOL is the chain for retail this cycle — the experience is f---ing brutal lately.”

That is quite shocking I must say. And makes me think people really are betting on Sol primarily just as a cyclical alt, rather than any true fundamentals.

[gib]

And to think that's after all the ETF inflows Bitcoin experienced. I would not brag about those numbers. I just checked the 3-month chart and BTC is up 50.52% and ETH is up 43.92%. I am staking ETH so let's add in my 3% yield. So from my point of view it is 50.52% vs 47%. And remember Bitcoin is getting constant airwaves on the mainstream channels. Many people have not even heard of Ethereum. Bitcoin is known by Kennedy's shoeshine boys.

Yes, the FUD might bring the ETH price down more. That's what's needed for Bitcoin Maxi's to feel great - lol! We'll see what happens the next few years.

I would say ETH has performed quite appallingly, at least for the many ETH fanboys who were predicting 5x returns vs BTC based on prior cycles. Reality is they were taught a lesson any alt can outperform BTC coming from a much lower market cap and with a good story. Reality is that ETH now is not even at 1:1 performance with BTC, and that is despite still being much smaller than BTC, and with a inflows in BTC value easily deployable by any degen to ETH. It hasn't happened. The degens are looking totally past ETH, to Sol which they see as the "blue chip" alt to BTC in this cycle, and to Doggies wig hats etc.

Every cycle, lessons are learned. What we have ahead of us  could well be a slow bleed of value from ETH into BTC. Time will tell if that continues. May 23 might provide a boost (Eth ETF), but I think its far more likely this date will add further disappointment. The next big thing for future cycles will be layer 2's on BTC.

[Flexacon]

That is quite shocking I must say. And makes me think people really are betting on Sol primarily just as a cyclical alt, rather than any true fundamentals.

Majority (90% plus) of those failed transactions are bots trying to do arbitrage. A human user can bypass the failed transaction issue by setting their transaction fee a little higher than default. In that regards user experience is still very good.

The issue for users is when they want to exit the Solana ecosystem. Fees for transfers are set and can't be adjusted so attempts at transferring are failing at high rates. Should be an easy fix for developers, but for the time being its pretty big screw up.

I would say ETH has performed quite appallingly, at least for the many ETH fanboys who were predicting 5x returns vs BTC based on prior cycles. Reality is they were taught a lesson any alt can outperform BTC coming from a much lower market cap and with a good story. Reality is that ETH now is not even at 1:1 performance with BTC, and that is despite still being much smaller than BTC, and with a inflows in BTC value easily deployable by any degen to ETH. It hasn't happened. The degens are looking totally past ETH, to Sol which they see as the "blue chip" alt to BTC in this cycle, and to Doggies wig hats etc.

Every cycle, lessons are learned. What we have ahead of us is a slow bleed of value from ETH into BTC. Time will tell if that continues. May 23 might provide a boost (Eth ETF), but I think its far more likely this date will add further disappointment. The next big thing for future cycles will be layer 2's on BTC.

The lesson is in the last cycle as it looks to be no different than what happened last cycle. Early bull phase binance smart chain was being favoured by degens similar to how Sol is being favoured right now.

ETH will come into it's own later just like it did last cycle. Eigen layer and monad (both huge yet to be released projects) will introduce modularity to the system. Different chains won't matter as much going forwards and that includes bitcoin L2s

[Mayday]

That is quite shocking I must say. And makes me think people really are betting on Sol primarily just as a cyclical alt, rather than any true fundamentals.

Yup. It’s in total Degen this time around. The space should be embarrassed..

Retail  only cares about what animal is wearing a hat and then create 10 versions of it on each platform. This was the dilution I posted about years ago that ends up destroying the alt space as it becomes rug pull after rug pull until one is successful.

Ultimately so many coins the odds of picking well or even timing correctly are worse than simply buying BTC.

At SOL highs 100M was raised in 72hrs for ICO memecoins. No new tech, all shit wearing hats 😂

ETH will be fine, it’s just waiting on the ETF outcome is all.


FWIW I had Mar-Jul 2024 in my economic timeline for an ‘event’. We have some things heating up in the ME which is interesting, could be a proper dip ahead which will be a great opportunity.

[Flexacon]

If animals with hats aren't doing it for you then what about a Keyboard Cat? Turn up the Base

" [/youtube]

[obsidian]

The degens are looking totally past ETH, to Sol which they see as the "blue chip" alt to BTC in this cycle, and to Doggies wig hats etc.

The degens are switching to ETH L2 BASE now because of issues with SOL.

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/base-meme-coins-gains-surge-taking-over-solanas-trading-frenzy-202404010825

BASE meme coins’ gains surge, taking over Solana's trading frenzy

The decline in volumes suggests the meme coin frenzy on Solana – which boasted trading volumes and network usage for the network over the last month–  is slowly waning. Capital appears to be rotating to Layer 2 chains like Base, where meme coins are seeing a resurgence and a rapid increase in daily transactions, trade volume, and returns.

[obsidian]

The next big thing for future cycles will be layer 2's on BTC.

Good luck with that. Ethereum has a few years head start and a 10x developer advantage.

[Mayday]

If animals with hats aren't doing it for you then what about a Keyboard Cat? Turn up the Base

lol I love that crypto is full degen now.

Did you see the WIF party? Cringe but still oodles of room to go lower like the NFT crew of 2021 who were sucking off trees in the forest 😂

Are there any new cat tokens you think might have a chance?

[Flexacon]

lol I love that crypto is full degen now.

Did you see the WIF party? Cringe but still oodles of room to go lower like the NFT crew of 2021 who were sucking off trees in the forest 😂

Are there any new cat tokens you think might have a chance?

The cat I posted was my cat call  The clues are in the text. Low/Moderate conviction.

Yeah those dance moves from that party were something else LMAO, but I don't think WIF is done yet. That was actually a party for the Pandora ERC404 NFT event and they grifted WIF for more visibility.

The real WIF party is later this month, the big WIF pumper has a "celebrity" boxing match and they are putting the WIF dog on the Vegas sphere. That's probably the Elon Saturday Night Live peak moment for it. The video doing the rounds now is just the last shake out before they run WIF hard.

If the bull run is still intact next few weeks sees BTC still going sideways, ALTs and shitters running, even ETH may catch bids then a push for rotation into BTC and it runs like a Sol shitcoin.

[Mayday]

The cat I posted was my cat call  The clues are in the text. Low/Moderate conviction.

Yeah those dance moves from that party were something else LMAO, but I don't think WIF is done yet. That was actually a party for the Pandora ERC404 NFT event and they grifted WIF for more visibility.

The real WIF party is later this month, the big WIF pumper has a "celebrity" boxing match and they are putting the WIF dog on the Vegas sphere. That's probably the Elon Saturday Night Live peak moment for it. The video doing the rounds now is just the last shake out before they run WIF hard.

If the bull run is still intact next few weeks sees BTC still going sideways, ALTs and shitters running, even ETH may catch bids then a push for rotation into BTC and it runs like a Sol shitcoin.

Got it, cheers. Worth a shot. The memes are all cat based so why the fascination with dogs in tokens I have no idea. Cats could easily get right up there.

I’m waiting on this ETH ETF and timing which my assumption is August. I had the S&P target at 5,300 and BTC peak price window out to end of April. I had an event window Mar-Jul 2024 where I figure a short painful mid year sharemarket correction will take place.

[Flexacon]

Got it, cheers. Worth a shot. The memes are all cat based so why the fascination with dogs in tokens I have no idea. Cats could easily get right up there.

I’m waiting on this ETH ETF and timing which my assumption is August. I had the S&P target at 5,300 and BTC peak price window out to end of April. I had an event window Mar-Jul 2024 where I figure a short painful mid year sharemarket correction will take place.

August for ETH ETF looks good. Blackrock and JPMorgan are already laying down the foundations for the litigation process if it's denied in May.

One FED speaker said there might be no rate cuts this year (he might be right, but he probably shouldn't have said it) and that dropped the market with some saying the SPX high for the year is already in.

He speaks again on Monday, so might walk back his comments and wreck bears again. If he doesn't then I'm gonna start planning my exit over the next few weeks, but I'm finding it incredibly difficult to be anything but bullish on bitcoin.

[gib]

August for ETH ETF looks good. Blackrock and JPMorgan are already laying down the foundations for the litigation process if it's denied in May.

One FED speaker said there might be no rate cuts this year (he might be right, but he probably shouldn't have said it) and that dropped the market with some saying the SPX high for the year is already in.

He speaks again on Monday, so might walk back his comments and wreck bears again. If he doesn't then I'm gonna start planning my exit over the next few weeks, but I'm finding it incredibly difficult to be anything but bullish on bitcoin.

So, 23 May not looking good anymore?...

[Flexacon]

So, 23 May not looking good anymore?...

It's not looked good for ages, but neither has ETH. The play was the ETH ecosystem.

It seems US ETH holders have been of the belief that the ETF will make them square when all along the money to be made from ETH was in adding ETH liquidity to ETH L2s and other ETH ecosystem protocols and then waiting for big fat juicy airdrops. US citizens are also being kept out of all the juicy staking APRs. They are only getting 3 to 5% whilst the rest of the world  can collect 20% plus via various defi restaking protocols.

I don't wanna say ETH ecosystem devs used US ETH holders/stakers for a exit liquidity, but it could end up feeling that way if the ETF eventually gets approved and a grayscale ETHE sell off exceeds any buying from the other ETFs. ETH price goes sideways and all the "free" L2 airdrop coins go parabolic.

[obsidian]

It's not looked good for ages, but neither has ETH. The play was the ETH ecosystem.

It seems US ETH holders have been of the belief that the ETF will make them square when all along the money to be made from ETH was in adding ETH liquidity to ETH L2s and other ETH ecosystem protocols and then waiting for big fat juicy airdrops. US citizens are also being kept out of all the juicy staking APRs. They are only getting 3 to 5% whilst the rest of the world  can collect 20% plus via various defi restaking protocols.

I don't wanna say ETH ecosystem devs used US ETH holders/stakers for a exit liquidity, but it could end up feeling that way if the ETF eventually gets approved and a grayscale ETHE sell off exceeds any buying from the other ETFs. ETH price goes sideways and all the "free" L2 airdrop coins go parabolic.

ETH has been fine. I've been earning steady staking yields. ETH L1 is a cockroach that's rock solid. Zoom out though. For the past 3 years ETH is up 57.79% vs BTC at 15.29%.

Will BTC outrun ETH in the short term? Sure. Long term I am bullish on Ethereum. I also think Proof Of Work will become an issue for Bitcoin - I will not be surprised by this at all. As the miners keep getting less and less rewards it might centralize more where a few entities are securing the network. Governments might also start bitching about the excessive energy consumption.

I was a Proof of Work miner of Ethereum for 4 years. I did it, but I think it is moronic compared to Proof of Stake.

Recent research indicated it will cost more to attack the Ethereum network vs Bitcoin. Ethereum is actually more decentralized and secure than Bitcoin. And it is cheaper to run.

Lido's market share fell below 30%, making Ethereum staking more decentralized.

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/04/38092815/jpmorgan-says-ethereum-could-avoid-security-label-amid-decreasing-lido-share

JPMorgan Says Ethereum Could Avoid 'Security' Label Amid Decreasing Lido Share

The declining market share of Lido, Ethereum's largest liquid staking protocol, indicates that Ethereum would likely avoid being classified as a security in the future, according to JPMorgan analysts. "The share of Lido in staked ETH has decreased further from around one third a year ago to around a quarter at the moment" JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote in a report on Wednesday.

"This should reduce concerns about concentration in the Ethereum network, thus raising the chance that Ethereum will avoid being designated as security in the future."

[obsidian]

Regarding this ^^^^^^^^^^^^

If Bitcoin eventually moves to Proof of Stake the 21 million cap might have been to reconsidered. Because stakers will want a yield. Unless the yield is taken from the 21 million cap, which means each BTC holder will have to be content with their holdings being reduced and given to the stakers. Yeah, that won't work.

There's an idea floating around to reduce ETH issuance further. The inflation ticked up the past day, most likely due to inactivity. It has been deflationary since Dencun lowered the L2 fees. We'll have to see how the tokenomics holds up over time.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ethereum-foundation-researchers-proposal-to-slow-eth-issuance-draws-pushback/ar-BB1l8QUM

[Mayday]

So, 23 May not looking good anymore?...

Seasonality is unbroken so it’s not so much about when the approval will happen but rather it will happen.

Post BTC ETF nothing has broken in my modelling. If it had it would have been blown my 76k to pieces.

2011 x 1 ATH peak
2013 x 2 ATH peak
2017 x 1 ATH peak
2021 x 2 ATH peak
2024…….. ATH already got tagged and we are still in the major parabola…..

Anyhoo once the ETH ETF is approved it’ll steal inbound funds from BTC.

The reality is the main crypto talking heads got themselves nuked in the bear market then wrecked shorting equities then wrecked longing bonds. They are gambling morons.

Wall St are not our friends. They got the BTC ETF. Now they’ll get the ETH ETF. Then they’ll short them both.

[gib]

No one likes to hear it, but if you are buying anything promoted as an "alt" to Bitcoin, you are being scammed.

Yields and airdrops are unsustainable gimmicks. Like we see every cycle, lessons will be learned.

ETH has performed terribly against BTC, despite in the past (and at least in the prior cycle) being considered and promoted as an alt to BTC. BTC has, since inception more than 3x'd the market cap of Eth. And that dominance over ETH will grow over time.

The lesson here is that any alt, can for a period of time in the short term outperform BTC (obviously very easy coming from a new launch and low market cap). Shit gets real over time, as market cap grows, and people launch new coins so scam suckers.

So, what we are now seeing is a slow, steady, bleed from Eth into BTC and other alts.

[Flexacon]

Yields and airdrops are unsustainable gimmicks. Like we see every cycle, lessons will be learned.

The fact is this stuff has only intensified with every cycle and you and others fading it each time just gets more and more painful.

And you don't like to hear it because you don't know how to take advantage of it, mostly because you don't understand how money rotates in crypto. I mean you choosing to throw money at something as heavily diluted as Filecoin says it all. Comical and you wouldn't even get why.

[gib]

The fact is this stuff has only intensified with every cycle and you and others fading it each time just gets more and more painful.

And you don't like to hear it because you don't know how to take advantage of it, mostly because you don't understand how money rotates in crypto. I mean you choosing to throw money at something as heavily diluted as Filecoin says it all. Comical and you wouldn't even get why.

If moving from ponzi scam to ponzi scam is your thing, in the hope that you can ultimately keep successfully keep accumulating more BTC in that method, as opposed to just stacking and holding BTC, good luck to you. The vast majority of people who do this (other than those who keep launching new alts and shitcoins), fail. Every cycle they learn their lesson, and every new cycles there are still others who give it a try and think they can outperform an infinitely diluting pool of money in alts. Its basic game theory - new coins will be infinitely launched to take advantage of any alt demand. (That can't happen with BTC itself - which is why we say "there is no second best".

I bought FIL pretty much at its low after its big peak. (And I don't buy any alt unless I intend to hold it long term - meaning I only buy on fundamental value, not hype). FIL is not at all an alt to BTC, nor does it claim to be. I valued the business (just like I value any company). To me, it is attractively priced given anticipated future revenue, total market growth, and expected long term revenue growth. I have had the data storage business explained to me by people from Microsoft and Amazon who deeply understand it. And when these guys tell me how much potential they see in FIL, I listen. The tokenomics of FIL are quite misunderstood (but over time will be better understood), hence the upside potential. Eventually (I am not sure when, but I am guessing 3-5 years from now based on current market adoption), I predict a MASSIVE awareness of interest in FIL and consequently a surge in price. Exponentially demand will take care of tokens. Again, you will see - lessons will be learned...

At its peak value to BTC, 1 ETH bought 0.14 BTC. That was back in June of 2017. Since then it has declined to now being 1 Eth being able to purchase just 0.05 BTC. A terrible performance, and a perfect example of how those looking to buy "alts" to gain over BTC, instead end up behind over time. And as I said earlier, I expect this will continue. Do you agree? (Or do you believe this trend will reverse?). Shall we revisit, say, end of this year?

[Flexacon]

I bought FIL pretty much at its low after its big peak. (And I don't buy any alt unless I intend to hold it long term - meaning I only buy on fundamental value, not hype). FIL is not at all an alt to BTC, nor does it claim to be. I valued the business (just like I value any company). To me, it is attractively priced given anticipated future revenue, total market growth, and expected long term revenue growth. I have had the data storage business explained to me by people from Microsoft and Amazon who deeply understand it. And when these guys tell me how much potential they see in FIL, I listen. The tokenomics of FIL are quite misunderstood (but over time will be better understood), hence the upside potential. Eventually (I am not sure when, but I am guessing 3-5 years from now based on current market adoption), I predict a MASSIVE awareness of interest in FIL and consequently a surge in price. Exponentially demand will take care of tokens. Again, you will see - lessons will be learned...

If you were explained all this and understand why FIL would be important then you should also know a big reason would be data storage relating to AI/machine learning.

Have you ever mentioned proof of work projects doing Ai/machine learning or the reasons why? I don't think you have, so if this is something new to you then I'd highly recommend looking into this. Bittensor is the most visible project right now. Then look at the charts of the other projects which are doing this stuff then you'll see why having money in FIL right now is comical. You are on the wrong end of the curve with FIL

https://bittensor.com/

[gib]

If you were explained all this and understand why FIL would be important then you should also know a big reason would be data storage relating to AI/machine learning.

Yes, of course that will be a huge driver in the coming 3-5 years. Hence my prediction above. Charts are historical. I look at future outcomes (and indeed, care little for charts, and instead focus on fundamentals). Exact same approach I apply to any investment, including stocks and property.

[Flexacon]

At its peak value to BTC, 1 ETH bought 0.14 BTC. That was back in June of 2017. Since then it has declined to now being just 1 Eth being able to purchase 0.05 BTC. A terrible performance, and a perfect example of how those looking to buy "alts" to gain over ETH, instead end up behind. And as I said earlier, I expect this will continue. Do you agree? (Or do you believe this trend will reverse?). Shall we revisit, say, end of this year?

Read my post again I did not compare ETH price to BTC. I didn't even mention BTC.

It's not looked good for ages, but neither has ETH. The play was the ETH ecosystem.

It seems US ETH holders have been of the belief that the ETF will make them square when all along the money to be made from ETH was in adding ETH liquidity to ETH L2s and other ETH ecosystem protocols and then waiting for big fat juicy airdrops. US citizens are also being kept out of all the juicy staking APRs. They are only getting 3 to 5% whilst the rest of the world  can collect 20% plus via various defi restaking protocols.

I don't wanna say ETH ecosystem devs used US ETH holders/stakers for a exit liquidity, but it could end up feeling that way if the ETF eventually gets approved and a grayscale ETHE sell off exceeds any buying from the other ETFs. ETH price goes sideways and all the "free" L2 airdrop coins go parabolic.

Since ETH went proof of stake and moved more to a layer 2 model the ETH profit potential has moved to layer 2. It's been a dirty secret that didn't get shared much as the more people who get involved the more diluted the rewards get.

So those who added ETH liquidity on L2s are receiving and will continue to receive massive airdrops. They don't and didn't  need to buy alts to make gains or wait for ETH price improvement. The more time that passes the more it looks like the ETH ETF and staking as a service was all just a distraction from all this. And yes those who did this stuff regarding liquidity are easily out performing Bitcoin in the same time frame as they don't need to hold the airdropped alts. It's an instant sale for profit.

Note that US ETH holders couldn't take advantage of this without running into difficulties/breaking laws. These are the people getting screwed holding ETH right now

Also regarding your point about long term trends. My case has always been simple. Wait for bitcoin to enter a bull phase and buy the most promising ALT sectors. It worked well last cycle and it's worked unbelievably well this cycle. It's really not that difficult a concept to implement.

[Flexacon]

Yes, of course that will be a huge driver in the coming 3-5 years. Hence my prediction above. Charts are historical. I look at future outcomes (and indeed, care little for charts, and instead focus on fundamentals). Exact same approach I apply to any investment, including stocks and property.

You're patiently waiting for x10 in crypto over the span of years when it can happen in the span of weeks. You are trying to use boomer investment strategies in crypto now in its third cycle when each cycle has shown that this kinda investment strategy is less and less relevant. The definition of insanity quote starts springing to mind...

[gib]

You're patiently waiting for x10 in crypto over the span of years when it can happen in the span of weeks. You are trying to use boomer investment strategies in crypto now in its third cycle when each cycle has shown that this kinda investment strategy is less and less relevant. The definition of insanity quote starts springing to mind...

Indeed Flex, I am the tortoise - slow and steady, boring perhaps, but I succeed over time, and this strategy has been incredibly successful for me as I applied it over time to stocks and property (which how I built my wealth). The hare on the other hand is all over the place, jumping in and out of all sort of opportunities. Think of me as the Warren Buffet of investing - I identify good value investments (whether in stock, property, or crypto), and then I simply hold and let time do its thing. Its also not just from an investment perspective, but also from an ethical and moral perspective - I really just can't feel comfortable with all the alt pump / scam / dump staff. I know guys on the front end of these, and have had opportunities to be involved. Its not my thing. But fascinating to watch from the sidelines.

If you really believe you can consistently over time outperform BTC with alts, good luck to you. Many try, most fail. Lets hope you are one of the sucessful ones!

[gib]

Read my post again I did not compare ETH price to BTC. I didn't even mention BTC.

Yes, I know, but my question for you (and anyone else who still holds hope for ETH) below remains:

At its peak value to BTC, 1 ETH bought 0.14 BTC. That was back in June of 2017. Since then it has declined to now being 1 Eth being able to purchase just 0.05 BTC. A terrible performance, and a perfect example of how those looking to buy "alts" to gain over BTC, instead end up behind over time. And as I said earlier, I expect this will continue. Do you agree? (Or do you believe this trend will reverse?). Shall we revisit, say, end of this year?