It's 86 days until this election is over, and it's a given that Hilary Clinton will win. What happens after that?
The question is whether Trump is the problem, or a symptom. During most of the 20th century the Republican party was the party of business, but they were also always the minority party, not having control of the House for 40 years straight. But once they teamed up with Christian Evangelicals, they started winning more and more. However, the establishment Republicans only gave lip service to the desires of the Religious Right, who finally revoted with the Tea Party coalition. Now these people are Trump supporters, even though Trump's views do not align with Tea Party doctrine at all.
I've written before how the Dixiecrats of the 60s and 70s became the Reagan Democrats of the 80s, which became the Tea Party of the 2000s.
Everyone likes to think they're part of the silent majority. Trump supporters certainly do. But they are far from it. Trump supporters are predominately older white male Christian. One third of the electorate is white Christian. Some Christians are liberal. Feeding the poor more important than judging the gays. White women support Trump much less than white men, even in the Evangelicals. So the base of the Republican party is maybe one sixth of the electorate. Simple math shows that nominating someone true to the values of one sixth of the electorate is not going to stand a chance in the general election, especially when many of the values they hold dear are anti-people in the other 5/6ths.
There are Republicans who could have given Hillary a run for her money. John Kasich for one. But there is no way the base of the Republican party (formerly the Tea Party, now just angry older white men) would support someone they saw as a Republican In Name Only. Neither John McCann nor Mitt Romney met their litmus test, and they weren't going down that route again.
In 1994 California Republicans pushed an extreme anti-immigrant proposition, Prop 187. They barely won in the general election, but the law was quickly overturned as unconstitutional. But by passing this prop, they drove immigrants into the arms of the Democratic party. Twenty two years later, Californian Democrats control all branches of government, and have a super-majority in both houses of the state legislature. (and oh yeah, California is doing just fine economically, thank you.) And because of our jungle primary, the top two vote getters to go to the general election in November are both Democrats.
These angry white male Trump supporters are now doing the same to the national Republican party. Asian and latinos are now firmly in the arms of the Democratic party. Young people, even young evangelicals, are identifying as Democratic too.
So what happens next? My guess is that Republicans will do well in the 2018 elections. They always do better in off year elections. The Democratic base doesn't come out as much when it is not a presidential election. And the president's party always tend to loose some House seats in the second year of their administration. But by doing well in 2018, Republicans will forget any lessons from 2016.
What happens in 2020 ? Establishment Republicans have lost control of their party. No way they'll get their choice for the 2020 presidential nominee. It will be another demagogue that appeals to angry white men. My bet is someone like Curt Schilling. Won't stand a chance in the general.
And what about the Democratic party? I would love to see it split in two, a business friendly right of center party, and a progressive workers party. (I see Obama, Clinton and my senator Feinstein all as right of center)
