I am reading a lot about the ever more likely impending super gau vs. Iran US/Israel – it has doomsday scenario SHTF written all over it, that alone makes it interesting to me.
Now I’m not going to bore you all with the finer details why any type of attack has such explosive (pun intended) far reaching potential for any neighboring countries and even the western world but instead I am going to put some things up for debate which I feel could/will happen if the US or Israel or both ever feel strong and conventionally attack Iran.
Let’s talk about the first most likely scenario – Good old-fashioned precision carpet bombing of all known nuclear sites.
This wouldn’t end well, were most people make the mistake that they believe one shithole in the middle east is the as bad as the other they don’t understand that Iran is far more advanced military speaking than any other middle eastern Islamic country, they have excellent air defense with their own tested and well working anti aircraft rocket system and a sizable airfleet.
Leave alone the aspect that they have moved most of their nuclear sites into the mountains totally our of reach for any conventional weapons
Iran is a regional power, and is a major trade partner for Russia especially, but also for China, Iran is a huge trading partner for china and good ol’ Russia, there’s a lot of money tied into Iran and both countries would not like to see their assets blown up, in fact a conventional attack would have all the potential to go super global
isn’t that great?
So since bombing them back into the stone age is clearly not working the US and Israel have to seriously consider invading the country via landforce ala Iraq, problem is of course Iran has a very large which does not consist of half starved “shock troops” as the US encountered while invading Iraq, Iran’s army is modern and well trained educated. These are not your local farmers that are used as cannon fodder, Irans army has all the tell tell signs of an professional army – they are not just going to step asite and let the Merkava roll past them they are going to stand they ground and fight and they have every right to-do so.
One nearly certain outcome of any kind of attack on Iran, whether it involves a ground invasion or an attempt at a quick-and-clean bombing campaign, is that Iran would launch missiles with conventional warheads across the Persian Gulf, aimed at Saudi Arabia's oil fields as priority targets -
The price per barrel of oil would skyrocket overnight as the leading producer of crude oil in the world suddenly was producing nothing.
The United States would quickly become an international pariah and, dropping quickly and deeply back into a crippling recession, the already-occurring shift in global influence away from American power and towards the East would likely accelerate.
Of course the US and Israel would also have to impose a naval blockade to save all surrounding countries to be either bombed or otherwise dragged into the conflict, with Israel fully exposed nobody will know what the neighboring countries would do or react, they might feel luck and over run the already stretched military reserve and by that triggering a nuclear exchange (one way of course).
This year and the coming years is going to be fun!
