Author Topic: Uk house prices peaked out  (Read 4195 times)

denarii

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 4240
Uk house prices peaked out
« on: December 23, 2014, 02:32:53 AM »
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2884526/We-bring-mansion-tax-straight-away-warns-Balls-Shadow-Chancellor-says-wants-start-raising-money-NHS-soon-possible-Labour-power.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2883451/House-prices-falling-country-sparking-fears-nationwide-slowdown.html

There is a guy at work who bought a flat in June 07 and moved into possibly the most unaesthetic house in north london this summer, a perfect top tick indicator. Some chance of rate rises next year and the easiest way for labour to stimulate the economy after the election is a large amount of house building. PS in real terms after 97 Hong Kong property prices fell 70% in 7 years...

I think the falls will be led from the top. The proverbial Knightsbridge £2m flat that were yielding 2% gross as buy to let's will yield 1% after the mansion tax. They will fall over 50% in my view! possibly quite a bit more than that. Many if them have been bought by Asians with max mortgages. I thought they were mostly cash buyers but I found out last year most of them are min deposit carry trades by clueless Asian HNW investors. The deposits are probably borrowed as well.
 

bigmc

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 23049
Re: Uk house prices peaked out
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2014, 04:00:20 AM »
the house building project will never happen

middle england wont vote for a party that devalues their house

which is the only possible outcome if supply starts meeting demand

the liberals can rattle an about shit like that because no one votes for them
T

denarii

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 4240
Re: Uk house prices peaked out
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2014, 05:11:14 AM »
Most people would be better off if prices were lower and debt levels lower

bigmc

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 23049
Re: Uk house prices peaked out
« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2014, 08:11:53 AM »
Most people would be better off if prices were lower and debt levels lower

people cant see beyond the end of their nose

house owners vote in much higher percentile than non house owners

so do old people

hence why pensions always get a nudge before the election
T

Skorp1o

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6423
Re: Uk house prices peaked out
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2014, 03:21:02 AM »
London is immune to this, not enough houses for all the workers within it add to it the popularity amongst wealthy foreigners and you'll get small ups and downs that's about it. Overall it's solid.

Now with the Russian sanctions and currency falling there's been a surge in Russians buying up again. London is also a property money laundering hub.
S

denarii

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 4240
Re: Uk house prices peaked out
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2014, 06:58:56 AM »
London is immune to this, not enough houses for all the workers within it add to it the popularity amongst wealthy foreigners and you'll get small ups and downs that's about it. Overall it's solid.

Now with the Russian sanctions and currency falling there's been a surge in Russians buying up again. London is also a property money laundering hub.

The top end of the market is frozen. My old boss was renting a place in Knightsbridge for what he thought was a 2% gross yield. That is pure bubble. As that collapses as Russian/ Mid East/ Chinese bid disappears u have a ripple effect to next few levels. They are throwing up 2500 or so flats between Wandsworth bridge and chelsea bridge to give an example. Seven figures plus ground rent for a flat above sainsburys... Lol

That said there is a shortage of affordable houses for ordinary people.